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Blouin News
Dec 14 2013
Despite promising start, rough road ahead for Turkey/Armenia talks
December 13, 2013 by Lora Moftah
Considering the gloomy outlook that preceded it, Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's visit to Armenia went about as well as
could have been expected. Speculation that bilateral talks would take
place on the sidelines of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation forum
ended up materializing with Davutoglu meeting his Armenian
counterpart, in the first diplomatic engagement between the two states
since the failed 2009 Zurich Protocols.
Though Davutoglu's surprising remarks on the `inhumane' nature of the
deportation of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire were a far cry from
the straightforward admission of genocide that Armenians have long
demanded, it is a possible positive sign of Ankara's desire to start
greasing the wheel on long-stalled normalization efforts. The genocide
acknowledgement is one of Yerevan's top demands from Turkey but it is
highly unlikely that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is about to
buck decades of Turkish policy and own up to the systematic killings.
However, as the 100th anniversary of the genocide looms on the
horizon, his AKP government is no doubt aware that making progress on
Armenian relations would go some way towards heading off expected
international pressure.
Coupled with Turkey's need to improve its foreign relations in general
(or at least to improve the perception around them), engaging Armenia
in normalization efforts is a smart move. The problem is that there
are some concrete impediments to substantive progress on this front.
For one, Turkey's relations with Armenia's foe Azerbaijan are as close
as they have ever been following Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's
November 12th visit to Ankara and as the crucial TANAP oil pipeline
project moves forward. Azerbaijan's decades-old conflict with Armenia
over the disputed Nagorno-Karabkh territory was the catalyst for
Turkey cutting off ties with Armenia in the first place and it will
continue to be a major factor in any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.
Azeri gas is a much higher priority for the Turkish state than
relations with Armenia; should the proceedings be received poorly by
Baku, there is every likelihood that a repeat of Zurich could take
place.
It is also important to note that even if the Turkish foreign ministry
is successful in bringing Yerevan back to the table, Erdogan's brash
tendencies - which have almost singlehandedly been responsible for the
deterioration of Turkey's ties with its Arab neighbors - could come
into play and, again, torpedo any potential deal. Yerevan will already
have enough on their plate in selling normalization efforts to the
Armenian public after the resounding failure of the last round- any
rumbles of the Turkish P.M.'s typical brashness might just scare them
away. So the question is, how far can this nascent normalization
effort really go given the obvious land mines ahead?
http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2013/12/13/despite-promising-start-rough-road-ahead-for-turkeyarmenia-talks/
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Dec 14 2013
Despite promising start, rough road ahead for Turkey/Armenia talks
December 13, 2013 by Lora Moftah
Considering the gloomy outlook that preceded it, Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's visit to Armenia went about as well as
could have been expected. Speculation that bilateral talks would take
place on the sidelines of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation forum
ended up materializing with Davutoglu meeting his Armenian
counterpart, in the first diplomatic engagement between the two states
since the failed 2009 Zurich Protocols.
Though Davutoglu's surprising remarks on the `inhumane' nature of the
deportation of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire were a far cry from
the straightforward admission of genocide that Armenians have long
demanded, it is a possible positive sign of Ankara's desire to start
greasing the wheel on long-stalled normalization efforts. The genocide
acknowledgement is one of Yerevan's top demands from Turkey but it is
highly unlikely that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is about to
buck decades of Turkish policy and own up to the systematic killings.
However, as the 100th anniversary of the genocide looms on the
horizon, his AKP government is no doubt aware that making progress on
Armenian relations would go some way towards heading off expected
international pressure.
Coupled with Turkey's need to improve its foreign relations in general
(or at least to improve the perception around them), engaging Armenia
in normalization efforts is a smart move. The problem is that there
are some concrete impediments to substantive progress on this front.
For one, Turkey's relations with Armenia's foe Azerbaijan are as close
as they have ever been following Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's
November 12th visit to Ankara and as the crucial TANAP oil pipeline
project moves forward. Azerbaijan's decades-old conflict with Armenia
over the disputed Nagorno-Karabkh territory was the catalyst for
Turkey cutting off ties with Armenia in the first place and it will
continue to be a major factor in any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.
Azeri gas is a much higher priority for the Turkish state than
relations with Armenia; should the proceedings be received poorly by
Baku, there is every likelihood that a repeat of Zurich could take
place.
It is also important to note that even if the Turkish foreign ministry
is successful in bringing Yerevan back to the table, Erdogan's brash
tendencies - which have almost singlehandedly been responsible for the
deterioration of Turkey's ties with its Arab neighbors - could come
into play and, again, torpedo any potential deal. Yerevan will already
have enough on their plate in selling normalization efforts to the
Armenian public after the resounding failure of the last round- any
rumbles of the Turkish P.M.'s typical brashness might just scare them
away. So the question is, how far can this nascent normalization
effort really go given the obvious land mines ahead?
http://blogs.blouinnews.com/blouinbeatworld/2013/12/13/despite-promising-start-rough-road-ahead-for-turkeyarmenia-talks/
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress