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CAN TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT BE REVIVED?
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 17 2013
AMANDA PAUL
[email protected]
Three years since efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and
Armenia collapsed, Ankara is seeking to revive the process.
On Nov. 6, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu stated in a session of
Parliament's Foreign Affairs Commission: "Our efforts in advance of
2015 are continuing at full speed. Our demand is that the Armenians
pull out of Karabakh. We are expecting a move on this issue. If it
happens, both the border crossing and the railroad will be reopened
and other relations will follow. But we want to do this together with
Azerbaijan." It also seems that Davutoglu raised the issue with both
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during Aliyev's visit to Ankara on
Nov. 12, and with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg
on Nov. 12, as well as during a visit to Washington on Nov. 18-19.
These developments were followed by Davutoglu's trip to Armenia on
Dec. 12. While he was there for a meeting of foreign ministers from
the Organization for the Black Sea Cooperation (BSEC), Davutoglu
clearly wanted to test the lay of the land in terms of kick-starting
a new rapprochement effort.
Last time, following two years of secret talks, Turkey and Armenia
signed two protocols aimed at normalizing ties in Zurich on Oct. 10,
2009. However, it all went wrong after that. Despite the fact that the
protocols made no reference to Nagorno-Karabakh, Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan made progress on Karabakh a condition of ratification of
the protocols, including returning regions of Azerbaijan that Armenia
presently occupies. Meanwhile, Armenia's Constitutional Court approved
the protocols with "reservations" before sending them to parliament for
ratification. Turkey declared that the court's reasoning went "against
the spirit of the protocols." Consequently, Armenian President Serzh
Sarksyan announced Armenia was suspending the ratification process on
the grounds that Turkey was putting conditions on it. The event left
Sarksyan with egg on his face, having already come under significant
criticism from the powerful Armenian diaspora for entering into the
process with Turkey and while also having difficulty explaining to
much of society why the protocols did not include an apology for the
genocide, because for many Armenians the only way to have any sort
of friendship with Turkey is through the prism of recognition of the
genocide. It also became the first failure of Davutoglu's zero problems
with neighbors policy. Moreover it created problems in Turkey's
relations with Azerbaijan while broadly increasing regional tensions.
With both sides having burned their fingers, ever since then,
diplomatic activity has been in the "parking lot." However, there
has been a lot of valuable second-track diplomacy, and through the
efforts of civil society and others Turks and Armenians continue to
get to know each other better.
Despite Davutoglu's groundwork and spending two hours meeting with
Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian, it seems unlikely that
Armenia will "re-board" this process. First of all, most Armenians
see the initiative as a mechanism to counter the pressure that Turkey
may come under approaching 2015, the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide. Second, despite the fact that the process of normalization
could bring positive economic effects, Yerevan has further tightened
its relationship with Russia by deciding to join the Russian-led
customs union, which means its foreign policy orientation is less
Western-looking that it was previously, and this also plays a role.
Furthermore, a number of Armenian officials, including Nalbandian,
have stated that bilateral ties can be normalized only "without
any preconditions" -- hence it seems that any effort to trade a
normalization of ties for the return of occupied territories will
fall flat on its face.
Yet ultimately these processes are now so inter-linked that it would
seem impossible to move one forward without the other. What is now
a lose-lose-lose for three countries could be turn into a win-win-win.
Furthermore, despite the explanation offered by Deputy Prime Minister
Bulent Arinc on Nov. 5 for how Turkey would counter the Armenians'
international campaigns for 2015, these efforts will be futile. No
matter what Turkey may try to do to try and discredit the genocide
allegation, it will fail because the issue is so internationally
accepted.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul_334240_can-turkish-armenian-rapprochement-be-revived.html
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 17 2013
AMANDA PAUL
[email protected]
Three years since efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and
Armenia collapsed, Ankara is seeking to revive the process.
On Nov. 6, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu stated in a session of
Parliament's Foreign Affairs Commission: "Our efforts in advance of
2015 are continuing at full speed. Our demand is that the Armenians
pull out of Karabakh. We are expecting a move on this issue. If it
happens, both the border crossing and the railroad will be reopened
and other relations will follow. But we want to do this together with
Azerbaijan." It also seems that Davutoglu raised the issue with both
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during Aliyev's visit to Ankara on
Nov. 12, and with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg
on Nov. 12, as well as during a visit to Washington on Nov. 18-19.
These developments were followed by Davutoglu's trip to Armenia on
Dec. 12. While he was there for a meeting of foreign ministers from
the Organization for the Black Sea Cooperation (BSEC), Davutoglu
clearly wanted to test the lay of the land in terms of kick-starting
a new rapprochement effort.
Last time, following two years of secret talks, Turkey and Armenia
signed two protocols aimed at normalizing ties in Zurich on Oct. 10,
2009. However, it all went wrong after that. Despite the fact that the
protocols made no reference to Nagorno-Karabakh, Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan made progress on Karabakh a condition of ratification of
the protocols, including returning regions of Azerbaijan that Armenia
presently occupies. Meanwhile, Armenia's Constitutional Court approved
the protocols with "reservations" before sending them to parliament for
ratification. Turkey declared that the court's reasoning went "against
the spirit of the protocols." Consequently, Armenian President Serzh
Sarksyan announced Armenia was suspending the ratification process on
the grounds that Turkey was putting conditions on it. The event left
Sarksyan with egg on his face, having already come under significant
criticism from the powerful Armenian diaspora for entering into the
process with Turkey and while also having difficulty explaining to
much of society why the protocols did not include an apology for the
genocide, because for many Armenians the only way to have any sort
of friendship with Turkey is through the prism of recognition of the
genocide. It also became the first failure of Davutoglu's zero problems
with neighbors policy. Moreover it created problems in Turkey's
relations with Azerbaijan while broadly increasing regional tensions.
With both sides having burned their fingers, ever since then,
diplomatic activity has been in the "parking lot." However, there
has been a lot of valuable second-track diplomacy, and through the
efforts of civil society and others Turks and Armenians continue to
get to know each other better.
Despite Davutoglu's groundwork and spending two hours meeting with
Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian, it seems unlikely that
Armenia will "re-board" this process. First of all, most Armenians
see the initiative as a mechanism to counter the pressure that Turkey
may come under approaching 2015, the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide. Second, despite the fact that the process of normalization
could bring positive economic effects, Yerevan has further tightened
its relationship with Russia by deciding to join the Russian-led
customs union, which means its foreign policy orientation is less
Western-looking that it was previously, and this also plays a role.
Furthermore, a number of Armenian officials, including Nalbandian,
have stated that bilateral ties can be normalized only "without
any preconditions" -- hence it seems that any effort to trade a
normalization of ties for the return of occupied territories will
fall flat on its face.
Yet ultimately these processes are now so inter-linked that it would
seem impossible to move one forward without the other. What is now
a lose-lose-lose for three countries could be turn into a win-win-win.
Furthermore, despite the explanation offered by Deputy Prime Minister
Bulent Arinc on Nov. 5 for how Turkey would counter the Armenians'
international campaigns for 2015, these efforts will be futile. No
matter what Turkey may try to do to try and discredit the genocide
allegation, it will fail because the issue is so internationally
accepted.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul_334240_can-turkish-armenian-rapprochement-be-revived.html