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DIALOGUE WITH ARMENIA
Milliyet (in Turkish), Turkey
Dec 14 2013
Sami Kohen
The meeting Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held with his Armenian
counterpart Edvard Nalbandyan in Yerevan the other day [12 December]
had a modest aim: to thaw the ice in the relations that have been
frozen for the past four years and to start a new dialogue process
between the two governments.
We understand that the two-hour meeting between the two ministers
achieved at least that. As Davutoglu said after the meeting, we should
not expect "the solution of the problems at one go." He also said:
"Nevertheless, it is impossible to solve the problems without talking,
without a dialogue."
The fact that the meeting was held in the Armenian capital is a
positive development. The two ministers actually showed their will to
resume the dialogue when they agreed to meet by taking the opportunity
that the annual meeting of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation was
being held in Yerevan this year.
It is known that to bring this about, Davutoglu took the initiative
and conducted some silent diplomacy.
Fine-tuning
Actually, this initiative is the result of some fine-tuning Ankara
made in its Armenian policy.
The two Turkish-Armenian protocols signed in Zurich in 2009 aimed to
normalize the relations (and also to establish diplomatic ties and
open the borders). In light of the subsequent harsh reaction that
came from Azerbaijan, the Turkish Government set a condition for the
normalization of the ties: that Armenia withdraws from Nagorno-Karabakh
which is under its occupation. Not only did Yerevan reject that,
it also suspended the protocols. The situation which did not change
since then is not actually in the interests of Turkey, Armenia,
or Azerbaijan.
The reason that pushed Ankara to make a move now is the unease felt
about the ongoing situation. The idea that normalization with Armenia
will both strengthen Turkey and prevent the anti-Turkish campaign
that is expected to intensify in 2015 in connection with the Armenian
genocide is becoming dominant.
The thing is that Turkey is committed to Azerbaijan, which it
values greatly, in connection with Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, it
is impossible for Turkey to renounce the precondition it set for the
normalization of ties with Armenia.
Small Step
There have been reports lately that, in light of the efforts of the
Minsk Group, Armenia seems ready to withdraw from two of the seven
"rayons" around Nagorno-Karabakh. If this happens, Ankara will be
able to show this as "progress" in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. If
Baku also agrees that it is so, then the normalization process between
Turkey and Armenia can begin.
At the moment, this seems distant. Consequently, there is no change
in Ankara's basic position. Just like Yerevan which has not changed
its position that it is "opposed to every kind of precondition."
In this respect, no concrete result emerged from the
Davutoglu-Nalbandyan meeting in terms of implementing the Zurich
protocols (such as the opening of borders or of embassies). The
meeting only opened the way to a "sincere" dialogue.
A small step, but better than nothing.
[Translated from Turkish]
Milliyet (in Turkish), Turkey
Dec 14 2013
Sami Kohen
The meeting Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held with his Armenian
counterpart Edvard Nalbandyan in Yerevan the other day [12 December]
had a modest aim: to thaw the ice in the relations that have been
frozen for the past four years and to start a new dialogue process
between the two governments.
We understand that the two-hour meeting between the two ministers
achieved at least that. As Davutoglu said after the meeting, we should
not expect "the solution of the problems at one go." He also said:
"Nevertheless, it is impossible to solve the problems without talking,
without a dialogue."
The fact that the meeting was held in the Armenian capital is a
positive development. The two ministers actually showed their will to
resume the dialogue when they agreed to meet by taking the opportunity
that the annual meeting of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation was
being held in Yerevan this year.
It is known that to bring this about, Davutoglu took the initiative
and conducted some silent diplomacy.
Fine-tuning
Actually, this initiative is the result of some fine-tuning Ankara
made in its Armenian policy.
The two Turkish-Armenian protocols signed in Zurich in 2009 aimed to
normalize the relations (and also to establish diplomatic ties and
open the borders). In light of the subsequent harsh reaction that
came from Azerbaijan, the Turkish Government set a condition for the
normalization of the ties: that Armenia withdraws from Nagorno-Karabakh
which is under its occupation. Not only did Yerevan reject that,
it also suspended the protocols. The situation which did not change
since then is not actually in the interests of Turkey, Armenia,
or Azerbaijan.
The reason that pushed Ankara to make a move now is the unease felt
about the ongoing situation. The idea that normalization with Armenia
will both strengthen Turkey and prevent the anti-Turkish campaign
that is expected to intensify in 2015 in connection with the Armenian
genocide is becoming dominant.
The thing is that Turkey is committed to Azerbaijan, which it
values greatly, in connection with Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, it
is impossible for Turkey to renounce the precondition it set for the
normalization of ties with Armenia.
Small Step
There have been reports lately that, in light of the efforts of the
Minsk Group, Armenia seems ready to withdraw from two of the seven
"rayons" around Nagorno-Karabakh. If this happens, Ankara will be
able to show this as "progress" in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. If
Baku also agrees that it is so, then the normalization process between
Turkey and Armenia can begin.
At the moment, this seems distant. Consequently, there is no change
in Ankara's basic position. Just like Yerevan which has not changed
its position that it is "opposed to every kind of precondition."
In this respect, no concrete result emerged from the
Davutoglu-Nalbandyan meeting in terms of implementing the Zurich
protocols (such as the opening of borders or of embassies). The
meeting only opened the way to a "sincere" dialogue.
A small step, but better than nothing.
[Translated from Turkish]