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ARMENIA OR AZERBAIJAN?
Star (in Turkish), Turkey
Dec 15 2013
Commentary by Sedat Laciner
In the last 10 years, Turkey destroyed many taboos. It sought more
democratic and normal relations in all fields. One of these fields is
the Armenian problem. Even though the new Turkey covered significant
distance in its efforts to destroy the Armenian taboo, this progress
could not be crowned with the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations.
Extraordinary efforts were made to normalize the relations between
the two countries. These efforts resulted in the signing of a joint
protocol in 2009. Had the protocol signed by Armenian Foreign Minister
Edvard Nalbandyan and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in
Zurich been approved, the Turkish-Armenian border which has been
closed for years would have been opened and relations would have
been normalized. Armenia, however, did not approve the agreement and,
in Turkey, the protocol failed to even make it to the Assembly agenda.
When Foreign Minister Davutoglu went to Armenia last week for the
Yerevan summit of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization,
there was a new flicker of hope about the relations, and certain
commentators found the visit encouraging. However, the meeting between
the two ministers was cold and short.
At this point, it is possible to talk about two factors that prevent
the normalization of the bilateral relations: One is Azerbaijan,
and the other is Russia. Unless it overcomes these two obstacles,
Turkey will not be able to improve its ties with Armenia
Azerbaijan
Currently, one fifth of Azerbaijan's territory is under Armenian
occupation. Not only Nagorno-Karabakh but cities between
Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian border are under occupation,
and Armenia views leaving these lands as equivalent to death. If
Turkey fails to see this situation, if it abandons Baku and improves
its ties with Armenia, if, for example, it reopens its borders with
Armenia which it had closed in support for Azerbaijan, then it will
lose Azerbaijan. Compared to Armenia, Azerbaijan is a very important
country that Turkey cannot afford to lose.
In addition to undeniable blood ties, Azerbaijan is Turkey's strategic
energy partner with its oil and gas resources. While Armenia has almost
no economic value as a market or producer, with its investments in
recent years, the Azerbaijani economy has become one of the important
partners of the Turkish economy. One must add to all this the strategic
partnership in the Caucasus against Iran and Russia.
Actually, the 2009 protocols carried a very heavy price tag for
Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. The problems in those ties were
alleviated only when the negotiation process with Armenia began to
collapse. In short, Turkey does not have the possibility to improve
its ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan at the same time.
Russia
The second significant obstacle is Russia. Armenia is like Russia's
outpost in the Caucasus. Due to the Armenian problem, Russia is able to
have military bases in that country. In fact, Armenia's borders with
Turkey and Iran are protected by Russian troops. Solving the problems
among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia means the collapse of Russia's
south Caucasus policies. Therefore, no matter how peaceful a language
it uses, Russia is an actor that does not see its interests in peace.
Naturally, Armenia is also an important obstacle before the improvement
of its ties with Turkey. Armenia defends Azerbaijan's occupation till
the end. In fact, Armenian politicians go even further and demand land
from Turkey. Even if Armenia's irredentist dreams are not realistic,
they cause anxiety among the Turks.
In summary, there is nothing new in the Armenian front. On the other
hand, Turkish-Azerbaijani relations are continuing to develop fast.
[Translated from Turkish]
From: Baghdasarian
Star (in Turkish), Turkey
Dec 15 2013
Commentary by Sedat Laciner
In the last 10 years, Turkey destroyed many taboos. It sought more
democratic and normal relations in all fields. One of these fields is
the Armenian problem. Even though the new Turkey covered significant
distance in its efforts to destroy the Armenian taboo, this progress
could not be crowned with the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations.
Extraordinary efforts were made to normalize the relations between
the two countries. These efforts resulted in the signing of a joint
protocol in 2009. Had the protocol signed by Armenian Foreign Minister
Edvard Nalbandyan and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in
Zurich been approved, the Turkish-Armenian border which has been
closed for years would have been opened and relations would have
been normalized. Armenia, however, did not approve the agreement and,
in Turkey, the protocol failed to even make it to the Assembly agenda.
When Foreign Minister Davutoglu went to Armenia last week for the
Yerevan summit of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization,
there was a new flicker of hope about the relations, and certain
commentators found the visit encouraging. However, the meeting between
the two ministers was cold and short.
At this point, it is possible to talk about two factors that prevent
the normalization of the bilateral relations: One is Azerbaijan,
and the other is Russia. Unless it overcomes these two obstacles,
Turkey will not be able to improve its ties with Armenia
Azerbaijan
Currently, one fifth of Azerbaijan's territory is under Armenian
occupation. Not only Nagorno-Karabakh but cities between
Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian border are under occupation,
and Armenia views leaving these lands as equivalent to death. If
Turkey fails to see this situation, if it abandons Baku and improves
its ties with Armenia, if, for example, it reopens its borders with
Armenia which it had closed in support for Azerbaijan, then it will
lose Azerbaijan. Compared to Armenia, Azerbaijan is a very important
country that Turkey cannot afford to lose.
In addition to undeniable blood ties, Azerbaijan is Turkey's strategic
energy partner with its oil and gas resources. While Armenia has almost
no economic value as a market or producer, with its investments in
recent years, the Azerbaijani economy has become one of the important
partners of the Turkish economy. One must add to all this the strategic
partnership in the Caucasus against Iran and Russia.
Actually, the 2009 protocols carried a very heavy price tag for
Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. The problems in those ties were
alleviated only when the negotiation process with Armenia began to
collapse. In short, Turkey does not have the possibility to improve
its ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan at the same time.
Russia
The second significant obstacle is Russia. Armenia is like Russia's
outpost in the Caucasus. Due to the Armenian problem, Russia is able to
have military bases in that country. In fact, Armenia's borders with
Turkey and Iran are protected by Russian troops. Solving the problems
among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia means the collapse of Russia's
south Caucasus policies. Therefore, no matter how peaceful a language
it uses, Russia is an actor that does not see its interests in peace.
Naturally, Armenia is also an important obstacle before the improvement
of its ties with Turkey. Armenia defends Azerbaijan's occupation till
the end. In fact, Armenian politicians go even further and demand land
from Turkey. Even if Armenia's irredentist dreams are not realistic,
they cause anxiety among the Turks.
In summary, there is nothing new in the Armenian front. On the other
hand, Turkish-Azerbaijani relations are continuing to develop fast.
[Translated from Turkish]
From: Baghdasarian