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REASONS TO HOLD OUT HOPE FOR ARMENIA, TURKEY
AL-MONITOR
Dec 18 2013
by Mensur Akgun
Author: Star (Turkey)Posted December 17, 2013
Despite the easing of tensions in Armenian-Turkish relations with
the signing of the 2009 Zurich protocols, there are still problems.
Because of reactions from Azerbaijan, Turkey has suspended its
ratification process. Both Armenia and Turkey have linked their
relations to steps to be taken for the solution of the Karabakh issue.
At the moment, the land border between the two countries is closed and
diplomatic relations with Armenia are not at a level of permanent
representation. Relations are managed with Armenian diplomats
accredited to the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization and
through private contacts. From time to time, ministers of both sides
meet as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu did on Dec. 12.
Many think relations will remain at this level. Azerbaijan is not
going to lift its hold on Turkey. Armenia, which is hoping to have
the entire world recognize its genocide claims in 2015, is not going
to improve its relations with Turkey now. In any case, there is no
solution in sight for the Nagorno Karabakh issue.
I am hopeful, however. I believe the relations between the
two countries can be normalized. If managed wisely, even if the
Karabakh issue is not resolved, there can be steps taken to normalize
Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. I have several reasons that bring me
to this conclusion:
1. Before anything else, if there had not been a reason to make us
think optimistically about the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations, Davutoglu, accompanied by his Undersecretary Feridun
Sinirlioglu, would not have traveled to Yerevan for the Black Sea
Economic Cooperation meeting. Otherwise, Turkey's representation at
the symbolic meeting of the 11-member organization would have been
at a lower level.
2. The fact that our foreign minister's remarks about the Armenian
deportations while flying to Yerevan were made in front of Armenian
journalists Markar Eseyan of Yeni Safak, Rober Koptas of Agos
and Samson Ozararat who could be considered a representative of
the Armenian diaspora, in addition to myself and Cansu Camlibel of
Hurriyet , is symbolically significant.
3. An important but overlooked aspect was the importance attributed
to Davutoglu's Yerevan visit by the Turkish news media. Nearly all
news organizations and TV channels were in Yerevan. If the media had
not believed that their readers and viewers were seriously interested
in relations with Armenia, they would not have gone there.
4. It appears that there is progress in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations.
The parties seem to have agreed to go step by step instead of striving
for an overall solution. It is highly likely that Armenia will agree
to some military withdrawal that will not strain it strategically.
5. Turkey gives the impression that in contrast to the 2009 process,
it is in much closer consultations with Azerbaijan. In 2009, Turkey had
kept Azerbaijan informed. But this time Ankara is [actively] consulting
and talking with Azerbaijan to manage its relations with Armenia.
6. This time around Turkey is much better prepared. Ankara shows
that it is not relying on the sponsors of the 2009 protocols to make
progress toward a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh issue. Ankara has
understood that there will be no contribution to a solution from the
United States and France, whose motives are limited to protecting
their own interests in Azerbaijan.
7. In contrast to four years ago, the reason for Ankara's wish to
improve its relations with Armenia is not to save itself from genocide
accusations. Bilateral relations are seen in the framework of mutual
benefits and regional stability. Turkey, now free from its historical
prejudices and phobias, is debating the genocide issue internally.
8. Davutoglu's reference to steps Turkey has taken to construe 1915
tragedy and his feelings about the deportations are noteworthy.
Ankara, which has earlier expressed its regrets, can soon solve its
problems by itself and remove the genocide from the agenda of its
foreign policy.
However, none of this means that the border will be opened next week
or next month, or that Armenia and Azerbaijan will reconcile tomorrow.
We have a tough process ahead of us. It is not known how much of a
rapprochement Russia would like to see, how Iran will react and what
will be the internal dynamics in Azerbaijan and Armenia.
What is important for us at this phase is the constructive return
of Turkey to its Caucus policy; its determination to make progress
toward normalization with Armenia without disrupting its relations
with Azerbaijan and realize that it can solve the genocide issue
internally. Let's be hopeful, but not delusional.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/12/armenia-turkey-hope.html#
From: A. Papazian
AL-MONITOR
Dec 18 2013
by Mensur Akgun
Author: Star (Turkey)Posted December 17, 2013
Despite the easing of tensions in Armenian-Turkish relations with
the signing of the 2009 Zurich protocols, there are still problems.
Because of reactions from Azerbaijan, Turkey has suspended its
ratification process. Both Armenia and Turkey have linked their
relations to steps to be taken for the solution of the Karabakh issue.
At the moment, the land border between the two countries is closed and
diplomatic relations with Armenia are not at a level of permanent
representation. Relations are managed with Armenian diplomats
accredited to the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization and
through private contacts. From time to time, ministers of both sides
meet as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu did on Dec. 12.
Many think relations will remain at this level. Azerbaijan is not
going to lift its hold on Turkey. Armenia, which is hoping to have
the entire world recognize its genocide claims in 2015, is not going
to improve its relations with Turkey now. In any case, there is no
solution in sight for the Nagorno Karabakh issue.
I am hopeful, however. I believe the relations between the
two countries can be normalized. If managed wisely, even if the
Karabakh issue is not resolved, there can be steps taken to normalize
Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. I have several reasons that bring me
to this conclusion:
1. Before anything else, if there had not been a reason to make us
think optimistically about the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations, Davutoglu, accompanied by his Undersecretary Feridun
Sinirlioglu, would not have traveled to Yerevan for the Black Sea
Economic Cooperation meeting. Otherwise, Turkey's representation at
the symbolic meeting of the 11-member organization would have been
at a lower level.
2. The fact that our foreign minister's remarks about the Armenian
deportations while flying to Yerevan were made in front of Armenian
journalists Markar Eseyan of Yeni Safak, Rober Koptas of Agos
and Samson Ozararat who could be considered a representative of
the Armenian diaspora, in addition to myself and Cansu Camlibel of
Hurriyet , is symbolically significant.
3. An important but overlooked aspect was the importance attributed
to Davutoglu's Yerevan visit by the Turkish news media. Nearly all
news organizations and TV channels were in Yerevan. If the media had
not believed that their readers and viewers were seriously interested
in relations with Armenia, they would not have gone there.
4. It appears that there is progress in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations.
The parties seem to have agreed to go step by step instead of striving
for an overall solution. It is highly likely that Armenia will agree
to some military withdrawal that will not strain it strategically.
5. Turkey gives the impression that in contrast to the 2009 process,
it is in much closer consultations with Azerbaijan. In 2009, Turkey had
kept Azerbaijan informed. But this time Ankara is [actively] consulting
and talking with Azerbaijan to manage its relations with Armenia.
6. This time around Turkey is much better prepared. Ankara shows
that it is not relying on the sponsors of the 2009 protocols to make
progress toward a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh issue. Ankara has
understood that there will be no contribution to a solution from the
United States and France, whose motives are limited to protecting
their own interests in Azerbaijan.
7. In contrast to four years ago, the reason for Ankara's wish to
improve its relations with Armenia is not to save itself from genocide
accusations. Bilateral relations are seen in the framework of mutual
benefits and regional stability. Turkey, now free from its historical
prejudices and phobias, is debating the genocide issue internally.
8. Davutoglu's reference to steps Turkey has taken to construe 1915
tragedy and his feelings about the deportations are noteworthy.
Ankara, which has earlier expressed its regrets, can soon solve its
problems by itself and remove the genocide from the agenda of its
foreign policy.
However, none of this means that the border will be opened next week
or next month, or that Armenia and Azerbaijan will reconcile tomorrow.
We have a tough process ahead of us. It is not known how much of a
rapprochement Russia would like to see, how Iran will react and what
will be the internal dynamics in Azerbaijan and Armenia.
What is important for us at this phase is the constructive return
of Turkey to its Caucus policy; its determination to make progress
toward normalization with Armenia without disrupting its relations
with Azerbaijan and realize that it can solve the genocide issue
internally. Let's be hopeful, but not delusional.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/12/armenia-turkey-hope.html#
From: A. Papazian