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FRENCH EXPERT SAYS KARABAKH INDEPENDENCE IMPERATIVE FOR REGIONAL PEACE
http://asbarez.com/117697/french-expert-says-karabakh-independence-imperative-for-regional-peace/
Friday, December 20th, 2013
French writer and geopolitical analyst Adrien Gevaudan
YEREVAN-In a recent interview with Panorama.am, French writer,
geopolitical analyst, and founder of IntStrat.org, Adrien Gevaudan
spoke about his recently published article, "Geopolitics of the
Greater Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh," in which he argues that peace
is the only solution that can guarantee long sought-after stability
in the region.
Gevaudan says that the balance of power between the two states is
of utmost importance in determining whether violence will erupt. He
cautions that if one side tips the balance in power, there could
be consequences.
"If the power balance changes too much and too quickly, it is only a
matter of time before one side decides to take advantage of its weaker
adversary; strategically speaking, it is only logical," says Gevaudan.
The risks are even higher, he says, if one considers the contributions
of surrounding geopolitical players such as Iran, Russia, and Israel
in making the conflict a powder keg.
It is important, Gevaudan says, to strike a peace deal now, before the
balance of power shifts any further. "That is why the international
recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is, in my opinion, the
only solution to ensure the stability of the region," Gevaudan says.
"An entity can be recognized as an independent state when it meets
the Montevideo criteria of 1933," Gevaudan says. Those include,
"One, a stable territory; two, a permanent population; three,
political authority; and four, the capacity to build relations with
other states."
Let's just say the NKR has the first three and the problem resides
with the last one," Gevaudan says. "But in order to build relations
with other states you have to be recognized by them, which is quite
a paradox."
Gevaudan says that international powers have to "moral" interest
in the conflict, but only what plays to their state interests. In
that light, he says, Karabakh must play to the interests of strong
players involved.
As for how Karabakh can position itself to fall in line with big
power interests, Gevaudan says, "As a matter of fact, such interest
already exists, given all the problems an open conflict would create
if it were to explode in the South Caucasus."
"This is of special concern for the EU; and this is why I think
the EU should do more to promote the international recognition of
the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic," Gevaudan says. "Nobody wants a new
war right now, not even the Azerbaijanis; we should, we must take
advantage of this while the consensus on peace still exists."
From: A. Papazian
http://asbarez.com/117697/french-expert-says-karabakh-independence-imperative-for-regional-peace/
Friday, December 20th, 2013
French writer and geopolitical analyst Adrien Gevaudan
YEREVAN-In a recent interview with Panorama.am, French writer,
geopolitical analyst, and founder of IntStrat.org, Adrien Gevaudan
spoke about his recently published article, "Geopolitics of the
Greater Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh," in which he argues that peace
is the only solution that can guarantee long sought-after stability
in the region.
Gevaudan says that the balance of power between the two states is
of utmost importance in determining whether violence will erupt. He
cautions that if one side tips the balance in power, there could
be consequences.
"If the power balance changes too much and too quickly, it is only a
matter of time before one side decides to take advantage of its weaker
adversary; strategically speaking, it is only logical," says Gevaudan.
The risks are even higher, he says, if one considers the contributions
of surrounding geopolitical players such as Iran, Russia, and Israel
in making the conflict a powder keg.
It is important, Gevaudan says, to strike a peace deal now, before the
balance of power shifts any further. "That is why the international
recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is, in my opinion, the
only solution to ensure the stability of the region," Gevaudan says.
"An entity can be recognized as an independent state when it meets
the Montevideo criteria of 1933," Gevaudan says. Those include,
"One, a stable territory; two, a permanent population; three,
political authority; and four, the capacity to build relations with
other states."
Let's just say the NKR has the first three and the problem resides
with the last one," Gevaudan says. "But in order to build relations
with other states you have to be recognized by them, which is quite
a paradox."
Gevaudan says that international powers have to "moral" interest
in the conflict, but only what plays to their state interests. In
that light, he says, Karabakh must play to the interests of strong
players involved.
As for how Karabakh can position itself to fall in line with big
power interests, Gevaudan says, "As a matter of fact, such interest
already exists, given all the problems an open conflict would create
if it were to explode in the South Caucasus."
"This is of special concern for the EU; and this is why I think
the EU should do more to promote the international recognition of
the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic," Gevaudan says. "Nobody wants a new
war right now, not even the Azerbaijanis; we should, we must take
advantage of this while the consensus on peace still exists."
From: A. Papazian