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Why National Assembly Postponed Voting
Postponing of the vote to the Armenian-Russian gas agreement gave a
surprise. People are trying to figure out, guess or analyze why the
voting was postponed.
Some optimists think that the Republicans could not vote for an
agreement that humiliates our dignity and infringes on our
independence and sovereignty. That would have been perfect. However,
taking the desirable for the real hardly ever leads one anywhere.
Usually, the consequences are aggravated instead of producing results.
The Republicans do have a chance to convince the society that it is
the real, not the desirable, and there is a line that they will not
cross because they are capable of moral feelings and physiological
experience.
However, considering the precedents, more earthly reasons of
postponement come to one's mind. The lack of information does not
allow insisting on one particular reason. The reason could be one of
the following:
- The Republicans may have expected that non-governmental parties
would vote, and there is no need for general mobilization. But it
became clear that non-governmental forces may boycott the vote - the
PAP parliamentary group stated to do so - and there would not be
quorum. The Republicans decided not to run the risk and not to
generate undesirable public enthusiasm through an unnecessary scandal.
- The postponement of the voting may intend to sell themselves up to
Russia, to demonstrate to Moscow that ratification is complicated and
risky so the conditions should be softened, and there should be the
smallest benefit for Armenia as well. In fact, such opposition between
the executive and parliament is a handy tool in countries with a
healthy political system that ensures flexibility of state policy. In
countries with a stable and deep political tradition this `game' is
spontaneous rather than by an organized and elaborated scenario.
Traditions in those countries form their government with at least
minimum checks and balances.
Armenia is not one of these countries but they may have to use this
tactics one day. Of course, Russia may not believe because it knows
better who is who in the Armenian parliament. However, when a
situation occurs when there is nothing to lose or give away, they just
run the risk.
In this regard, the process of discussion was interesting itself. Some
sharp inquiries were made by Republicans. Some of them criticized bad
provisions evidencing the dangerous essence of the agreement.
- This circumstance though prompts another possible reason of
postponement of the voting - a demarche against the government. The
government de jure negotiated the gas agreement. De facto there are
doubts that anyone from Armenia has ever negotiated, and more probably
the agreement was drafted in Gazprom and forwarded to Armenia.
However, Tigran Sargsyan's government is de jure responsible.
There is an interesting circumstance. Serzh Sargsyan had stated that
the government must resign unless it achieves a 7% economic growth.
This year the growth will hardly be 4%. Everyone was expecting the
resignation of the government, so do the wings of the government which
have aspirations to the executive. Recently, however, Serzh Sargsyan
has stated that the annual economic results will be summed up in
February and March. In other words, he will not dismiss the government
by then.
In this situation, the Armenian-Russian gas agreement is a convenient
opportunity for a vote of no confidence to the government. Notably,
not only the non-governmental but also some Republicans are up for
revealing the content of the agreement. Interestingly, Speaker Hobik
Abrahamyan refrained from the heated debate. While it would not be
nice of him to criticize the agreement, praising it would mean
defending the government that is de jure responsible.
It is possible that the risk of sabotage against the government has
forced Serzh Sargsyan to postpone the voting to manage the risk and
not to have to revise his intention to keep the government will
February-March of the next year.
- There may be another reason for postponement. For example, the
majority was hungry and tired of the discussion, and they were afraid
of forgetting altogether how they had been told to vote and thwarting
something. At least, this option should not be ruled out while looking
into intrigues considering the mental potential of many people in the
majority.
Hakob Badalyan
13:17 21/12/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31596
From: A. Papazian
Postponing of the vote to the Armenian-Russian gas agreement gave a
surprise. People are trying to figure out, guess or analyze why the
voting was postponed.
Some optimists think that the Republicans could not vote for an
agreement that humiliates our dignity and infringes on our
independence and sovereignty. That would have been perfect. However,
taking the desirable for the real hardly ever leads one anywhere.
Usually, the consequences are aggravated instead of producing results.
The Republicans do have a chance to convince the society that it is
the real, not the desirable, and there is a line that they will not
cross because they are capable of moral feelings and physiological
experience.
However, considering the precedents, more earthly reasons of
postponement come to one's mind. The lack of information does not
allow insisting on one particular reason. The reason could be one of
the following:
- The Republicans may have expected that non-governmental parties
would vote, and there is no need for general mobilization. But it
became clear that non-governmental forces may boycott the vote - the
PAP parliamentary group stated to do so - and there would not be
quorum. The Republicans decided not to run the risk and not to
generate undesirable public enthusiasm through an unnecessary scandal.
- The postponement of the voting may intend to sell themselves up to
Russia, to demonstrate to Moscow that ratification is complicated and
risky so the conditions should be softened, and there should be the
smallest benefit for Armenia as well. In fact, such opposition between
the executive and parliament is a handy tool in countries with a
healthy political system that ensures flexibility of state policy. In
countries with a stable and deep political tradition this `game' is
spontaneous rather than by an organized and elaborated scenario.
Traditions in those countries form their government with at least
minimum checks and balances.
Armenia is not one of these countries but they may have to use this
tactics one day. Of course, Russia may not believe because it knows
better who is who in the Armenian parliament. However, when a
situation occurs when there is nothing to lose or give away, they just
run the risk.
In this regard, the process of discussion was interesting itself. Some
sharp inquiries were made by Republicans. Some of them criticized bad
provisions evidencing the dangerous essence of the agreement.
- This circumstance though prompts another possible reason of
postponement of the voting - a demarche against the government. The
government de jure negotiated the gas agreement. De facto there are
doubts that anyone from Armenia has ever negotiated, and more probably
the agreement was drafted in Gazprom and forwarded to Armenia.
However, Tigran Sargsyan's government is de jure responsible.
There is an interesting circumstance. Serzh Sargsyan had stated that
the government must resign unless it achieves a 7% economic growth.
This year the growth will hardly be 4%. Everyone was expecting the
resignation of the government, so do the wings of the government which
have aspirations to the executive. Recently, however, Serzh Sargsyan
has stated that the annual economic results will be summed up in
February and March. In other words, he will not dismiss the government
by then.
In this situation, the Armenian-Russian gas agreement is a convenient
opportunity for a vote of no confidence to the government. Notably,
not only the non-governmental but also some Republicans are up for
revealing the content of the agreement. Interestingly, Speaker Hobik
Abrahamyan refrained from the heated debate. While it would not be
nice of him to criticize the agreement, praising it would mean
defending the government that is de jure responsible.
It is possible that the risk of sabotage against the government has
forced Serzh Sargsyan to postpone the voting to manage the risk and
not to have to revise his intention to keep the government will
February-March of the next year.
- There may be another reason for postponement. For example, the
majority was hungry and tired of the discussion, and they were afraid
of forgetting altogether how they had been told to vote and thwarting
something. At least, this option should not be ruled out while looking
into intrigues considering the mental potential of many people in the
majority.
Hakob Badalyan
13:17 21/12/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31596
From: A. Papazian