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Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 30 2013
2013: the top five stories in the Caucasus
by ZAUR SHIRIYEV
2013: the top five stories in the Caucasus
As 2013 draws to a close, it seems a good time to reflect on the top
stories of the year from the Caucasus. Compared to previous years, the
region has featured frequently in world news.
Notably, in the Boston Marathon bombings in the US, the terrorists had
links to Chechnya in the North Caucasus. The region also featured in
world news in connection with Hassan Rohani's election as president in
neighboring Iran, and the subsequent temporary nuclear deal between
Tehran and six world powers.
Regrettably, some of the positive developments the region is awaiting
failed to materialize in 2013, such as the peaceful resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts; and regional
improvement on international human rights rankings published by
Freedom House and Transparency International, for instance.
However, here are the region's top five stories from 2013, positive or not:
1.Presidential elections -- This year saw the reelection of both the
Azerbaijani and Armenian incumbents, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan,
respectively. In Georgia, the situation was more complex.
Constitutional amendments passed in 2010 and 2013 reduced the
president's power, but the Georgian election still had significant
impact. The ruling Georgian Dream party saw the election of its
candidate, the relatively unknown Giorgi Margvelashvili -- reflecting
public support for the party since its surprise win in the 2012
parliamentary election. The real significance here was that Georgia
elected a new president through a free and democratic process. The
2004 Georgian presidential election after the Rose Revolution was also
deemed democratic, but no transfer of power from one president to
another actually took place.
2.Southern Gas Corridor redefines the Caspian and European `energy
map' -- After the long debate on the Nabucco project, the selection of
the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) in June as the main delivery route
for Caspian gas to Europe came as a surprise to many. TAP will
transport gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II to the European market
through Greece, Albania and under the Adriatic Sea to Italy. Dec. 17
marked the signing ceremony for the final investment decision (FID) on
the development of the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field,
bringing closer the realization of the expansion of the South Caucasus
Pipeline (SCP) and the construction of the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline
(TANAP) and the TAP. This is good news for European energy security,
both in terms of meeting demand for gas and connecting with the
existing gas supply infrastructure in Southern Europe. In the long
term, Azerbaijani gas could meet 20 percent of EU demand.
3.Armenia's political U-turn -- Armenia was expected to sign an
association agreement as well as a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU at the Eastern Partnership Vilnius
Summit in November. But just two months before the summit, following a
meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenian President
Sargsyan declared Yerevan's intention to join the Russian-led Customs
Union (CU). This was a blow to the EU and a major disappointment for
other former Soviet states. Armenia's dilemma -- having to choose
between the EU and the Russian-sponsored CU and Eurasian Union -- was
over. Widespread support in the Armenian government for EU integration
reversed overnight, with officials suddenly endorsing the CU. Another
disappointment came after Putin's official visit to Armenia from Dec.
2-3, when the Russian energy giant Gazprom announced it would take
full ownership of its subsidiary ArmRosGazprom, the local distributor
in Armenia. This means that Yerevan has lost its remaining 20-percent
stake in the company -- and thus the last vestige of its energy
independence.
4.The Vilnius Summit -- At the most hotly anticipated summit of the
EU's Eastern Partnership (EaP), held in Vilnius on Nov. 28 and 29,
Georgia initialed an association agreement and a DCFTA with the EU.
The country expects to sign both agreements in August or September
2014. Azerbaijan, as expected, inked a visa facilitation agreement
with the EU. This was a small but important step for both Baku and the
EU, as it signaled that the country is still oriented toward European
integration. However, to finalize the visa facilitation agreement,
which will make it cheaper and faster for Azerbaijani citizens to
obtain short-stay visas for the Schengen zone, Azerbaijan also needs a
readmission agreement.
5.Meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents -- Between
the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents' meeting on Jan. 23, 2012 in
Sochi and their next meeting in Vienna on Nov. 19, 2013, 666 days
passed -- an inauspicious number for the conflict-resolution process.
The lack of presidential communication deepened mistrust at the
intergovernmental level between the two sides and dampened hope for
the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The November
meeting, unfortunately, did not result in any significant changes to
the resolution process. In both countries' governmental circles,
however, the meeting was seen as a move back to square one, perhaps
with a clean slate, in advance of the 20th anniversary of the
cease-fire agreement next year. New progress is sorely needed,
especially after the appointment of the new US co-chair to the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk
Group in August. This group is the mediation body for the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; since Ambassador James Warlick's
appointment there has been a heightened sense of urgency for
presidential engagement. The Nov. 19 meeting was evidence of this
added momentum, and another meeting is expected in the coming months.
The renewed US involvement, along with Switzerland's chairmanship of
the OSCE in 2014, could help Azerbaijan and Armenia take important
steps toward resolving the conflict.
Any of these five stories could be a launchpad for further global
attention, especially during the Sochi Winter Olympics in February
2014, which will bring hordes of international journalists to the
area.
Finally, I would like to take this opportunity to wish the Today's
Zaman readership a very happy New Year.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/zaur-shiriyev_335344_2013-the-top-five-stories-in-the-caucasus.html
Dec 30 2013
2013: the top five stories in the Caucasus
by ZAUR SHIRIYEV
2013: the top five stories in the Caucasus
As 2013 draws to a close, it seems a good time to reflect on the top
stories of the year from the Caucasus. Compared to previous years, the
region has featured frequently in world news.
Notably, in the Boston Marathon bombings in the US, the terrorists had
links to Chechnya in the North Caucasus. The region also featured in
world news in connection with Hassan Rohani's election as president in
neighboring Iran, and the subsequent temporary nuclear deal between
Tehran and six world powers.
Regrettably, some of the positive developments the region is awaiting
failed to materialize in 2013, such as the peaceful resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts; and regional
improvement on international human rights rankings published by
Freedom House and Transparency International, for instance.
However, here are the region's top five stories from 2013, positive or not:
1.Presidential elections -- This year saw the reelection of both the
Azerbaijani and Armenian incumbents, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan,
respectively. In Georgia, the situation was more complex.
Constitutional amendments passed in 2010 and 2013 reduced the
president's power, but the Georgian election still had significant
impact. The ruling Georgian Dream party saw the election of its
candidate, the relatively unknown Giorgi Margvelashvili -- reflecting
public support for the party since its surprise win in the 2012
parliamentary election. The real significance here was that Georgia
elected a new president through a free and democratic process. The
2004 Georgian presidential election after the Rose Revolution was also
deemed democratic, but no transfer of power from one president to
another actually took place.
2.Southern Gas Corridor redefines the Caspian and European `energy
map' -- After the long debate on the Nabucco project, the selection of
the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) in June as the main delivery route
for Caspian gas to Europe came as a surprise to many. TAP will
transport gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II to the European market
through Greece, Albania and under the Adriatic Sea to Italy. Dec. 17
marked the signing ceremony for the final investment decision (FID) on
the development of the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field,
bringing closer the realization of the expansion of the South Caucasus
Pipeline (SCP) and the construction of the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline
(TANAP) and the TAP. This is good news for European energy security,
both in terms of meeting demand for gas and connecting with the
existing gas supply infrastructure in Southern Europe. In the long
term, Azerbaijani gas could meet 20 percent of EU demand.
3.Armenia's political U-turn -- Armenia was expected to sign an
association agreement as well as a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU at the Eastern Partnership Vilnius
Summit in November. But just two months before the summit, following a
meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenian President
Sargsyan declared Yerevan's intention to join the Russian-led Customs
Union (CU). This was a blow to the EU and a major disappointment for
other former Soviet states. Armenia's dilemma -- having to choose
between the EU and the Russian-sponsored CU and Eurasian Union -- was
over. Widespread support in the Armenian government for EU integration
reversed overnight, with officials suddenly endorsing the CU. Another
disappointment came after Putin's official visit to Armenia from Dec.
2-3, when the Russian energy giant Gazprom announced it would take
full ownership of its subsidiary ArmRosGazprom, the local distributor
in Armenia. This means that Yerevan has lost its remaining 20-percent
stake in the company -- and thus the last vestige of its energy
independence.
4.The Vilnius Summit -- At the most hotly anticipated summit of the
EU's Eastern Partnership (EaP), held in Vilnius on Nov. 28 and 29,
Georgia initialed an association agreement and a DCFTA with the EU.
The country expects to sign both agreements in August or September
2014. Azerbaijan, as expected, inked a visa facilitation agreement
with the EU. This was a small but important step for both Baku and the
EU, as it signaled that the country is still oriented toward European
integration. However, to finalize the visa facilitation agreement,
which will make it cheaper and faster for Azerbaijani citizens to
obtain short-stay visas for the Schengen zone, Azerbaijan also needs a
readmission agreement.
5.Meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents -- Between
the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents' meeting on Jan. 23, 2012 in
Sochi and their next meeting in Vienna on Nov. 19, 2013, 666 days
passed -- an inauspicious number for the conflict-resolution process.
The lack of presidential communication deepened mistrust at the
intergovernmental level between the two sides and dampened hope for
the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The November
meeting, unfortunately, did not result in any significant changes to
the resolution process. In both countries' governmental circles,
however, the meeting was seen as a move back to square one, perhaps
with a clean slate, in advance of the 20th anniversary of the
cease-fire agreement next year. New progress is sorely needed,
especially after the appointment of the new US co-chair to the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk
Group in August. This group is the mediation body for the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; since Ambassador James Warlick's
appointment there has been a heightened sense of urgency for
presidential engagement. The Nov. 19 meeting was evidence of this
added momentum, and another meeting is expected in the coming months.
The renewed US involvement, along with Switzerland's chairmanship of
the OSCE in 2014, could help Azerbaijan and Armenia take important
steps toward resolving the conflict.
Any of these five stories could be a launchpad for further global
attention, especially during the Sochi Winter Olympics in February
2014, which will bring hordes of international journalists to the
area.
Finally, I would like to take this opportunity to wish the Today's
Zaman readership a very happy New Year.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/zaur-shiriyev_335344_2013-the-top-five-stories-in-the-caucasus.html