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PRESIDENT POISED FOR RE-ELECTION IN A DISENCHANTED ARMENIA
Amid economic woes and worry about a resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, some party leaders are not even bothering
to run
Piotr Smolar
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/05/armenian-president-election-sargsyan
Guardian Weekly,
Tuesday 5 February 2013 14.00 GMT
President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia. Photograph: Ron Sachs-Pool/Getty
Images Landlocked Armenia has been dreaming of peaceful development for
the past 20 years. But its future is dogged by major uncertainties due
to the unresolvedconflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, pitting it against
neighbouring Azerbaijan.
There seems little doubt, however, regarding the outcome of
the presidential election on 18 February. The official campaign,
launched on 21 January, is unlikely to stir up much excitement among
a disenchanted electorate.
By all accounts the favourite is the incumbent Serzh Azati Sargsyan.
In former Soviet republics the incumbent enjoys a crucial advantage:
they control the apparatus of state, at a national but above all
municipal level, enabling them to mobilise voters. In the present
case various opposition candidates have dropped out of the race,
making life even easier for Sargsyan.
In December former president Levon Ter-Petrossian, 68, caused surprise
when hethrew in the towel, purportedly on the grounds of his age. His
party, the Armenian National Congress (HAK), decided not to back
another younger candidate, opting to condemn the poll for being
rigged, before the fact. "Petrossian knew his probable defeat would
mean curtains for his political career, so he had no alternative,"
says Aharon Adibekian, head of the Sociometer polling institute,
which is currently crediting Sargsyan with a 25-point lead.
In the 2008 elections Petrossian was defeated, triggering violent
clashes between his supporters and police and the declaration of a
state of emergency. The regime accused him of trying to seize power
by force and blamed him for the death of 10 demonstrators. This time
he has chosen to avoid conflict.
No one will be representing the Prosperous Armenia party (BHK)
either, despite the party finishing in second place in last May's
general election, behind Sargsyan's Republican party (HKK). The BHK
leader, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, also decided not to run against
the president. Other candidates will nevertheless be competing,
in particular Raffi Hovannisian, the first foreign minister after
independence (following the Soviet Union's demise) and nowhead of
the Heritage party.
He was in Paris on 17 January for talks with Paul Jean-Ortiz, one of
President Francois Hollande's diplomatic advisers."We are swimming
against the tide. People are very fatalistic," he said. "It's because
of their past experience of rigged elections and totally ineffective
pro-European speeches," he added.
The American-born Hovannisian thought it was "odd" that other parties
had given up the fight, but is convinced he stands a chance if he can
make it to the second round. He is demanding television debates. "The
people who say it's all settled have no respect for voters," he
asserted, condemning the incumbent's use of "state resources, like
public buildings, town halls, schools and hospitals".
Hovannisian claimed that his supporters in the provinces were the
target of intimidation, and appealed to the president to prosecute
the officials responsible for such acts.
As well as economic woes, attention in the campaign is certain to focus
on normalisation of diplomatic relations with Turkey and settlement
of the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Hovannisian hopes to gain international recognition for this breakaway
region of Azerbaijan. "It would be hypocritical not to do so, for
any nation which has already recognised Kosovo, or in response to
[Russian recognition of] Abkhazia and South Ossetia," he contends.
In his view Karabakh representatives should be taking part in talks,
supervised by the Minsk Group (France, US, Russia), which have made
little progress in 20 years. He does not object to plans floated by
Sargsyan to reinstate flights between Yerevan and Stepanakert, the
"capital" of the separatist province.
~U This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates
material from Le Monde
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Amid economic woes and worry about a resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, some party leaders are not even bothering
to run
Piotr Smolar
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/05/armenian-president-election-sargsyan
Guardian Weekly,
Tuesday 5 February 2013 14.00 GMT
President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia. Photograph: Ron Sachs-Pool/Getty
Images Landlocked Armenia has been dreaming of peaceful development for
the past 20 years. But its future is dogged by major uncertainties due
to the unresolvedconflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, pitting it against
neighbouring Azerbaijan.
There seems little doubt, however, regarding the outcome of
the presidential election on 18 February. The official campaign,
launched on 21 January, is unlikely to stir up much excitement among
a disenchanted electorate.
By all accounts the favourite is the incumbent Serzh Azati Sargsyan.
In former Soviet republics the incumbent enjoys a crucial advantage:
they control the apparatus of state, at a national but above all
municipal level, enabling them to mobilise voters. In the present
case various opposition candidates have dropped out of the race,
making life even easier for Sargsyan.
In December former president Levon Ter-Petrossian, 68, caused surprise
when hethrew in the towel, purportedly on the grounds of his age. His
party, the Armenian National Congress (HAK), decided not to back
another younger candidate, opting to condemn the poll for being
rigged, before the fact. "Petrossian knew his probable defeat would
mean curtains for his political career, so he had no alternative,"
says Aharon Adibekian, head of the Sociometer polling institute,
which is currently crediting Sargsyan with a 25-point lead.
In the 2008 elections Petrossian was defeated, triggering violent
clashes between his supporters and police and the declaration of a
state of emergency. The regime accused him of trying to seize power
by force and blamed him for the death of 10 demonstrators. This time
he has chosen to avoid conflict.
No one will be representing the Prosperous Armenia party (BHK)
either, despite the party finishing in second place in last May's
general election, behind Sargsyan's Republican party (HKK). The BHK
leader, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, also decided not to run against
the president. Other candidates will nevertheless be competing,
in particular Raffi Hovannisian, the first foreign minister after
independence (following the Soviet Union's demise) and nowhead of
the Heritage party.
He was in Paris on 17 January for talks with Paul Jean-Ortiz, one of
President Francois Hollande's diplomatic advisers."We are swimming
against the tide. People are very fatalistic," he said. "It's because
of their past experience of rigged elections and totally ineffective
pro-European speeches," he added.
The American-born Hovannisian thought it was "odd" that other parties
had given up the fight, but is convinced he stands a chance if he can
make it to the second round. He is demanding television debates. "The
people who say it's all settled have no respect for voters," he
asserted, condemning the incumbent's use of "state resources, like
public buildings, town halls, schools and hospitals".
Hovannisian claimed that his supporters in the provinces were the
target of intimidation, and appealed to the president to prosecute
the officials responsible for such acts.
As well as economic woes, attention in the campaign is certain to focus
on normalisation of diplomatic relations with Turkey and settlement
of the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Hovannisian hopes to gain international recognition for this breakaway
region of Azerbaijan. "It would be hypocritical not to do so, for
any nation which has already recognised Kosovo, or in response to
[Russian recognition of] Abkhazia and South Ossetia," he contends.
In his view Karabakh representatives should be taking part in talks,
supervised by the Minsk Group (France, US, Russia), which have made
little progress in 20 years. He does not object to plans floated by
Sargsyan to reinstate flights between Yerevan and Stepanakert, the
"capital" of the separatist province.
~U This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates
material from Le Monde
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress