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TREND OF DECLINE IN AZERI OIL EXPORT: CESD FORECASTS DECLINE IN OIL OUTPUT BY 5% IN 2013
http://azerireport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3868&Ite mid=52
BAKU. February 7, 2013: Azeri oil export declined by 15.3% in January
2013 compared with the previous month according to State Oil Company of
Azerbaijan (SOCAR). The company reports that it exported 1.67 million
tons in January 2013 (compared to 1.976 million tons in December). Last
year's highest export occurred in July (2.36 million tons).
In January 2013, 2,629 tons of oil was exported via Baku-Novorossiysk;
242,339 tons via Baku-Supsa; and 1.439 million via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC). "Over 2012, it was exported 25.006 million tons of oil,
including 2.06 million tons via Baku-Novorossiysk, 2.7 million tons
via Baku-Supsa and 20.199 million tons via BTC," - SOCAR reported.
SOCAR says that the MEOD exports both its own oil and oil falling on
the share of the government within PSA contracts.
The put 2013's projections in perspective, SOCAR's oil products export
dropped by 14.1% in 2012, as well - down from 1,448,068 tons in 2011
to 1,243,742 tons last year.
The assessment model of the Center for Economic & Social Development
(CESD) also forecasts decreasing of oil production in Azerbaijan. 50.8
million tons oil in 2010, 45.6 million tons in 2011 and 43.9 million
tons last year, which was 6.9 million ton less than 2010's output.
Meanwhile, the latest predictions confirm that oil production will
decrease to about 33 million tons in 2015. Even with current prices of
crude oil in the world market, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan's (SOFAZ)
assets will be totally spent within the budget lines if current
unbelievable transfer levels persist. Maintaining such a high rate
of transfers can result in negative consequences because of cutting
budget expenditures due to potential lack of financial resources.
CESD is not optimistic about SOCAR's oil output forecast for 2013,
which projects an output of 44 million tons of oil in 2013, even
though decline in this sector was already registered in the first
months of year. CESD forecasts decline in oil output by 5% in 2013
based on its econometric models and PSA matrix.
According to the Production Share Agreement (PSA), oil reserves turned
down starting in 2011. Considering that the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field
currently has 3 billion barrels (of the initial 5 billion) reserve,
production in paying quantities from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field
is estimated to end in 2019 (3 billion barrel /340 million barrel
annual). Given that 2010 was the peak year of Azeri oil production, the
descent began in 2011. Of course, the output will not stop immediately,
but its reduction by 10 percent a year will be a severe blow.
The BTC pipeline extends to 1768 km including 443km in Azerbaijan,
248 km in Georgia and 1076 km in Turkey. The shareholders of the BTC Co
pipeline company are BP (30.1%), SOCAR (25%), Chevron (8.9%), Statoil
(8.71%), TPAO (6.53%), Itochu (3.4%), ONGC Videsh Ltd. (2.36%), ENI
(5%), ConocoPhillips (2.5%), Inpex (2.5%), Total (5%) (CESD).
http://azerireport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3868&Ite mid=52
BAKU. February 7, 2013: Azeri oil export declined by 15.3% in January
2013 compared with the previous month according to State Oil Company of
Azerbaijan (SOCAR). The company reports that it exported 1.67 million
tons in January 2013 (compared to 1.976 million tons in December). Last
year's highest export occurred in July (2.36 million tons).
In January 2013, 2,629 tons of oil was exported via Baku-Novorossiysk;
242,339 tons via Baku-Supsa; and 1.439 million via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC). "Over 2012, it was exported 25.006 million tons of oil,
including 2.06 million tons via Baku-Novorossiysk, 2.7 million tons
via Baku-Supsa and 20.199 million tons via BTC," - SOCAR reported.
SOCAR says that the MEOD exports both its own oil and oil falling on
the share of the government within PSA contracts.
The put 2013's projections in perspective, SOCAR's oil products export
dropped by 14.1% in 2012, as well - down from 1,448,068 tons in 2011
to 1,243,742 tons last year.
The assessment model of the Center for Economic & Social Development
(CESD) also forecasts decreasing of oil production in Azerbaijan. 50.8
million tons oil in 2010, 45.6 million tons in 2011 and 43.9 million
tons last year, which was 6.9 million ton less than 2010's output.
Meanwhile, the latest predictions confirm that oil production will
decrease to about 33 million tons in 2015. Even with current prices of
crude oil in the world market, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan's (SOFAZ)
assets will be totally spent within the budget lines if current
unbelievable transfer levels persist. Maintaining such a high rate
of transfers can result in negative consequences because of cutting
budget expenditures due to potential lack of financial resources.
CESD is not optimistic about SOCAR's oil output forecast for 2013,
which projects an output of 44 million tons of oil in 2013, even
though decline in this sector was already registered in the first
months of year. CESD forecasts decline in oil output by 5% in 2013
based on its econometric models and PSA matrix.
According to the Production Share Agreement (PSA), oil reserves turned
down starting in 2011. Considering that the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field
currently has 3 billion barrels (of the initial 5 billion) reserve,
production in paying quantities from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field
is estimated to end in 2019 (3 billion barrel /340 million barrel
annual). Given that 2010 was the peak year of Azeri oil production, the
descent began in 2011. Of course, the output will not stop immediately,
but its reduction by 10 percent a year will be a severe blow.
The BTC pipeline extends to 1768 km including 443km in Azerbaijan,
248 km in Georgia and 1076 km in Turkey. The shareholders of the BTC Co
pipeline company are BP (30.1%), SOCAR (25%), Chevron (8.9%), Statoil
(8.71%), TPAO (6.53%), Itochu (3.4%), ONGC Videsh Ltd. (2.36%), ENI
(5%), ConocoPhillips (2.5%), Inpex (2.5%), Total (5%) (CESD).