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TNS poll: Hovannisian gains support, Sargsyan certain to win 1st round
February 9, 2013 - 12:32 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - TNS opinion released the results of its survey
"Poll: Armenia on the Eve of Presidential Elections" describing the
voting preferences and motivations of the Armenian voters, but also
their views on the on-going campaigns of the various candidates.
For this TNS opinion poll, implemented together with their local
partner IPSC, 1 609 face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 10
regions (marzes) and 12 communities of Yerevan between 31 January and
5 February 2013. The poll was commissioned by European Friends of
Armenia (EuFoA) in order to contribute to a factual debate ahead of
the elections.
`Using a large number of quality checks, we carried out this poll in
the middle of the campaign period and received very reliable and
consistent data.' comments Dr Steve Schwarzer, Director for Methods
and Statistics at TNS opinion, Brussels. `Now we see that President
Sargsyan still has the most certain voters and almost twice as many as
runner-up Raffi Hovannisian. However, the respondents say that so far
Hovannisian's campaign appears more convincing, focusing on
programmatic campaigning around mainly economic topics. Strikingly, he
now gains more support from the former Prosperous Armenia voters than
the incumbent President, a clear change compared to our last poll.'
As a result, if presidential elections took place last week, Serzh
Sargsyan would have scored 58,0% [-10,6% compared to our January 2013
poll] of valid votes (valid responses are without "Don't know" and
"Refuse to answer"; raw data with "Don't know" and "Refuse to answer":
40,2% [-3,8%]). The poll now rates Raffi Hovannisian at 33,0% [+12,2%]
of the valid votes (raw data: 22,9% [+9,6%]). To evaluate the
likelihood of a second round, TNS opinion also assessed the certainty
to vote and analysed the characteristics of respondents who did not
reveal their voting intentions. Following this analysis, Hovannisian
currently is positioned in a bandwidth between 26% and 34%, while
Sargsyan scores between 58% and 66%, looking very likely to win in the
first round - based on the situation two weeks before the elections.
The voters of Paruyr Hayrikyan, a candidate who was shot into the
shoulder on 31 January (after the first fieldwork day of this opinion
poll), are now much more certain that their decision is final and his
awareness among the public has strongly increased. However, the people
intending to vote for him remain stable at 4,9% [+0,1%] of the valid
votes. Hrant Bagratyan now stands 1,6% points lower than in January,
scoring 2,8% of valid votes. As in January, the remaining four of the
eight official candidates are largely unknown to the poll respondents
and altogether score less than 1,5% of valid votes.
http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/145042/
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
February 9, 2013 - 12:32 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - TNS opinion released the results of its survey
"Poll: Armenia on the Eve of Presidential Elections" describing the
voting preferences and motivations of the Armenian voters, but also
their views on the on-going campaigns of the various candidates.
For this TNS opinion poll, implemented together with their local
partner IPSC, 1 609 face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 10
regions (marzes) and 12 communities of Yerevan between 31 January and
5 February 2013. The poll was commissioned by European Friends of
Armenia (EuFoA) in order to contribute to a factual debate ahead of
the elections.
`Using a large number of quality checks, we carried out this poll in
the middle of the campaign period and received very reliable and
consistent data.' comments Dr Steve Schwarzer, Director for Methods
and Statistics at TNS opinion, Brussels. `Now we see that President
Sargsyan still has the most certain voters and almost twice as many as
runner-up Raffi Hovannisian. However, the respondents say that so far
Hovannisian's campaign appears more convincing, focusing on
programmatic campaigning around mainly economic topics. Strikingly, he
now gains more support from the former Prosperous Armenia voters than
the incumbent President, a clear change compared to our last poll.'
As a result, if presidential elections took place last week, Serzh
Sargsyan would have scored 58,0% [-10,6% compared to our January 2013
poll] of valid votes (valid responses are without "Don't know" and
"Refuse to answer"; raw data with "Don't know" and "Refuse to answer":
40,2% [-3,8%]). The poll now rates Raffi Hovannisian at 33,0% [+12,2%]
of the valid votes (raw data: 22,9% [+9,6%]). To evaluate the
likelihood of a second round, TNS opinion also assessed the certainty
to vote and analysed the characteristics of respondents who did not
reveal their voting intentions. Following this analysis, Hovannisian
currently is positioned in a bandwidth between 26% and 34%, while
Sargsyan scores between 58% and 66%, looking very likely to win in the
first round - based on the situation two weeks before the elections.
The voters of Paruyr Hayrikyan, a candidate who was shot into the
shoulder on 31 January (after the first fieldwork day of this opinion
poll), are now much more certain that their decision is final and his
awareness among the public has strongly increased. However, the people
intending to vote for him remain stable at 4,9% [+0,1%] of the valid
votes. Hrant Bagratyan now stands 1,6% points lower than in January,
scoring 2,8% of valid votes. As in January, the remaining four of the
eight official candidates are largely unknown to the poll respondents
and altogether score less than 1,5% of valid votes.
http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/145042/
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress