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ARMENIA PLEDGES TO HOLD TRULY DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
By Haroutiun Khachatrian (01/23/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Eight candidates are nominated to run in Armenia's presidential
elections scheduled for February 18, in which the incumbent President
Serzh Sargsyan seeks re-election for a second five-year term. However,
despite the abundance of nominees, no close struggle is expected and
Sargsyan is in a good position to be reelected with relative ease. The
official election campaign started on January 21 but a number of
candidates began their public addresses ahead of this date. Others who
had their candidate registrations rejected have declared that their
rights have been violated and that they will pursue these by judicial
means.
BACKGROUND: The most serious competition to Sargsyan was removed on
December 12 when Gagik Tsarukian, leader of the Prosperous Armenia
Party (PA) and regarded as the only potential candidate capable of
mounting a real challenge to Sargsyan, announced that he would not run
for the presidency. Tsarukian is vastly popular in Armenia, not least
due to his habit of using his considerable personal wealth for various
charity actions, such as donating tractors to farmers or sending
high-quality Yerevan physicians to rural areas. Armenia's first
President (1991-1998) Levon Ter-Petrosian has also declared he will
not run in 2013. Ter-Petrosian was the main challenger to Sargsyan in
the 2008 presidential elections where he ended in second place after
receiving more than 22 percent of the votes according to official
data.
Fifteen persons have presented their documents to the Central
Electoral Commission (CEC) to be nominated as presidential candidates.
However, eight of these, including Armenia's first ever female
presidential candidate, failed to pay the electoral deposit amounting
to 8 million Armenian drams (roughly US$ 19,800). Several of the
prospective candidates said they could not afford the deposit, and
that the CEC was hence violating their rights. For this reason, the
CEC unprecedentedly declared on January 8 that it would extend the
payment deadline by 48 hours.
The remaining six competitors are believed to be relatively weak
candidates and present no threat to the re-election of the incumbent
President. Only two of these are previously known in Armenian
politics. Raffi Hovannisian became the first Foreign Minister of
independent Armenia in 1992 and is the leader and founder of Heritage
party, and a former deputy of the National Assembly. Hrant Bagratian
is the leader of the liberal Liberty party and was Deputy Prime
Minister in 1990-1993 and Prime Minister in 1993-1996. He is now a
member of the National Assembly. Bagratian is considered to be
responsible for most of the widely lauded liberal reforms of the early
1990s (e.g., land and apartment privatization) signifying Armenia's
break with the Soviet heritage.
Former Soviet dissident Paruyr Hayrikian has also entered the race,
although his perspectives are not considered to be promising. The
remaining candidates are not regarded as serious ones. One example is
Vardan Sedrakian, who pledges to establish justice in the country
according to the principles of the Armenian epos Sasna Tsrer
(Daredevils of Sasun).
IMPLICATIONS: Armenia's 2013 presidential race is unusual in the
abundance of registered candidates, but the results seem given already
from the outset. Sargsyan will in all likelihood be reelected on
February 18, probably in the first round. This will enable his
administration to continue the reforms it has initiated over five more
years. While these reforms are far reaching and affect most sectors of
society, they nevertheless enjoy limited popularity among the Armenian
public, which wants immediate improvement of living standards.
Tsarukian has presented no explanation for his decision not to run in
these elections. The PA, which has a reputation for being pro-Russian,
even sent a delegation led by Tsarukian to Brussels, seemingly
indicating Tsarukian's intention to run. Tsarukian's behavior can be
taken to indicate that he does not object in principle to the current
government's policies and stands to gain more from cooperating with it
rather than opposing it. In addition, Tsarukian likely views his party
as the successor to Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) after
the next elections in 2018, when Sargsyan will not be entitled for
nomination. While this does not necessarily mean that Tsarukian views
himself as the country's next president, the assumption is
substantiated by the fact that the PA refuses to term itself
`opposition,' instead preferring the unique term `alternative party.'
Rumors have circulated that Tsarukian was threatened, for example by
the prospect of opening a criminal case against him similar to that
against former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian who is now a PA
member, but no evidence has been presented to substantiate these
allegations.
Ter-Petrosian cited his high age, 68, as a reason not to run in the
elections. This seems unconvincing, however, and a more likely
explanation is his dwindling popularity since 2008 as shown, in
particular, by a Gallup International poll in December. This means
that his political organization Armenian National Congress is either
dead or needs another leader.The parties presenting themselves as
opposition, including four factions in the National Assembly, failed
to nominate a common candidate capable of competing with Sargsyan and
local analysts argue that the opposition has done everything to help
his victory. Sargsyan will hence face few obstacles to reelection on
February 18. Sargsyan is backed by the large RPA, which controls 71
seats in 131-member parliament and at least 60 percent of Armenia's
local municipalities.
In addition, three smaller parties and the organization of Karabakh
war veterans, Yerkrapah, said they would support his candidacy. This
means that the PA party will not honor the provisions of a memorandum
signed in February 2011, where it pledged to support Sargsyan in the
next presidential elections. In contrast, most other parties decided
not to nominate their members for presidency and only two candidates,
Hovannisian and Bagratian, enjoy the support of a political party
during the elections.
As Sargsyan's victory seems guaranteed - according to polls conducted
in December he could win 60 to 70 percent of the votes in the first
round - his promise to hold Armenia's best ever elections on February
18 seems realistic. Armenia's ability to hold truly democratic
presidential elections, which has not been demonstrated in previous
ballots, is an important precondition for the credibility of the
country's European orientation. This time, there will be no need for
violations, which according to critics have been a clear factor in
securing previous election victories for RPA candidates. In these
elections, Armenian authorities will have a unique opportunity to
demonstrate its commitment to improving election conduct. In
particular, the CEC's decision to extend the deadline for registration
fees is presented as an effort by the authorities to simplify the
process. One candidate was added during this period, increasing the
number of hopefuls to eight, while the remaining seven were not
registered. Some of them, including Narine Mkrtchian, claim that the
requirement of an electoral deposit is a violation of their rights and
say they will bring the issue to court. Otherwise, media and local
observers have presented no reports of discrimination against any
registered candidate.
CONCLUSIONS: If nothing extraordinary happens, the Armenian
authorities face a unique opportunity in the February 18 presidential
elections, as the opposition has failed to nominate a joint candidate.
Tsarukian and Ter-Petrosian, both the potential competitors to
Sargsyan, have refrained from running for president at this time. In
addition, the main political parties outside government, including
those in parliament, have decided not to present candidates for the
presidency and to refrain from supporting any candidate. This will
allow Sargsyan to be re-elected in a competitive and clean electoral
process. In turn, this will enable him to continue reforming the
country for another five years, possibly with the same team headed by
the Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan.
AUTHOR'S BIO: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a political and economic
analyst based in Yerevan, Armenia. He is the author of: `Karabakh
Conflict. Variants of Settlement: Concepts and Reality' (co-authored
with Ali Abasov), 2006.
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5910
By Haroutiun Khachatrian (01/23/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Eight candidates are nominated to run in Armenia's presidential
elections scheduled for February 18, in which the incumbent President
Serzh Sargsyan seeks re-election for a second five-year term. However,
despite the abundance of nominees, no close struggle is expected and
Sargsyan is in a good position to be reelected with relative ease. The
official election campaign started on January 21 but a number of
candidates began their public addresses ahead of this date. Others who
had their candidate registrations rejected have declared that their
rights have been violated and that they will pursue these by judicial
means.
BACKGROUND: The most serious competition to Sargsyan was removed on
December 12 when Gagik Tsarukian, leader of the Prosperous Armenia
Party (PA) and regarded as the only potential candidate capable of
mounting a real challenge to Sargsyan, announced that he would not run
for the presidency. Tsarukian is vastly popular in Armenia, not least
due to his habit of using his considerable personal wealth for various
charity actions, such as donating tractors to farmers or sending
high-quality Yerevan physicians to rural areas. Armenia's first
President (1991-1998) Levon Ter-Petrosian has also declared he will
not run in 2013. Ter-Petrosian was the main challenger to Sargsyan in
the 2008 presidential elections where he ended in second place after
receiving more than 22 percent of the votes according to official
data.
Fifteen persons have presented their documents to the Central
Electoral Commission (CEC) to be nominated as presidential candidates.
However, eight of these, including Armenia's first ever female
presidential candidate, failed to pay the electoral deposit amounting
to 8 million Armenian drams (roughly US$ 19,800). Several of the
prospective candidates said they could not afford the deposit, and
that the CEC was hence violating their rights. For this reason, the
CEC unprecedentedly declared on January 8 that it would extend the
payment deadline by 48 hours.
The remaining six competitors are believed to be relatively weak
candidates and present no threat to the re-election of the incumbent
President. Only two of these are previously known in Armenian
politics. Raffi Hovannisian became the first Foreign Minister of
independent Armenia in 1992 and is the leader and founder of Heritage
party, and a former deputy of the National Assembly. Hrant Bagratian
is the leader of the liberal Liberty party and was Deputy Prime
Minister in 1990-1993 and Prime Minister in 1993-1996. He is now a
member of the National Assembly. Bagratian is considered to be
responsible for most of the widely lauded liberal reforms of the early
1990s (e.g., land and apartment privatization) signifying Armenia's
break with the Soviet heritage.
Former Soviet dissident Paruyr Hayrikian has also entered the race,
although his perspectives are not considered to be promising. The
remaining candidates are not regarded as serious ones. One example is
Vardan Sedrakian, who pledges to establish justice in the country
according to the principles of the Armenian epos Sasna Tsrer
(Daredevils of Sasun).
IMPLICATIONS: Armenia's 2013 presidential race is unusual in the
abundance of registered candidates, but the results seem given already
from the outset. Sargsyan will in all likelihood be reelected on
February 18, probably in the first round. This will enable his
administration to continue the reforms it has initiated over five more
years. While these reforms are far reaching and affect most sectors of
society, they nevertheless enjoy limited popularity among the Armenian
public, which wants immediate improvement of living standards.
Tsarukian has presented no explanation for his decision not to run in
these elections. The PA, which has a reputation for being pro-Russian,
even sent a delegation led by Tsarukian to Brussels, seemingly
indicating Tsarukian's intention to run. Tsarukian's behavior can be
taken to indicate that he does not object in principle to the current
government's policies and stands to gain more from cooperating with it
rather than opposing it. In addition, Tsarukian likely views his party
as the successor to Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) after
the next elections in 2018, when Sargsyan will not be entitled for
nomination. While this does not necessarily mean that Tsarukian views
himself as the country's next president, the assumption is
substantiated by the fact that the PA refuses to term itself
`opposition,' instead preferring the unique term `alternative party.'
Rumors have circulated that Tsarukian was threatened, for example by
the prospect of opening a criminal case against him similar to that
against former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian who is now a PA
member, but no evidence has been presented to substantiate these
allegations.
Ter-Petrosian cited his high age, 68, as a reason not to run in the
elections. This seems unconvincing, however, and a more likely
explanation is his dwindling popularity since 2008 as shown, in
particular, by a Gallup International poll in December. This means
that his political organization Armenian National Congress is either
dead or needs another leader.The parties presenting themselves as
opposition, including four factions in the National Assembly, failed
to nominate a common candidate capable of competing with Sargsyan and
local analysts argue that the opposition has done everything to help
his victory. Sargsyan will hence face few obstacles to reelection on
February 18. Sargsyan is backed by the large RPA, which controls 71
seats in 131-member parliament and at least 60 percent of Armenia's
local municipalities.
In addition, three smaller parties and the organization of Karabakh
war veterans, Yerkrapah, said they would support his candidacy. This
means that the PA party will not honor the provisions of a memorandum
signed in February 2011, where it pledged to support Sargsyan in the
next presidential elections. In contrast, most other parties decided
not to nominate their members for presidency and only two candidates,
Hovannisian and Bagratian, enjoy the support of a political party
during the elections.
As Sargsyan's victory seems guaranteed - according to polls conducted
in December he could win 60 to 70 percent of the votes in the first
round - his promise to hold Armenia's best ever elections on February
18 seems realistic. Armenia's ability to hold truly democratic
presidential elections, which has not been demonstrated in previous
ballots, is an important precondition for the credibility of the
country's European orientation. This time, there will be no need for
violations, which according to critics have been a clear factor in
securing previous election victories for RPA candidates. In these
elections, Armenian authorities will have a unique opportunity to
demonstrate its commitment to improving election conduct. In
particular, the CEC's decision to extend the deadline for registration
fees is presented as an effort by the authorities to simplify the
process. One candidate was added during this period, increasing the
number of hopefuls to eight, while the remaining seven were not
registered. Some of them, including Narine Mkrtchian, claim that the
requirement of an electoral deposit is a violation of their rights and
say they will bring the issue to court. Otherwise, media and local
observers have presented no reports of discrimination against any
registered candidate.
CONCLUSIONS: If nothing extraordinary happens, the Armenian
authorities face a unique opportunity in the February 18 presidential
elections, as the opposition has failed to nominate a joint candidate.
Tsarukian and Ter-Petrosian, both the potential competitors to
Sargsyan, have refrained from running for president at this time. In
addition, the main political parties outside government, including
those in parliament, have decided not to present candidates for the
presidency and to refrain from supporting any candidate. This will
allow Sargsyan to be re-elected in a competitive and clean electoral
process. In turn, this will enable him to continue reforming the
country for another five years, possibly with the same team headed by
the Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan.
AUTHOR'S BIO: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a political and economic
analyst based in Yerevan, Armenia. He is the author of: `Karabakh
Conflict. Variants of Settlement: Concepts and Reality' (co-authored
with Ali Abasov), 2006.
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5910