Tweet
TURKEY SHOULD LOOK TO AN ANCIENT KING FOR TIPS ON ENERGY
Robin Mills
http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/energy/turkey-should-look-to-an-ancient-king-for-tips-on-energy
Feb 12, 2013
The giant stone heads scattered around Mount Nemrut in south-eastern
Turkey combine several cultures. Raised in 62 BC, these statues of
Greek, Armenian and Iranian gods have Hellenic faces but wear Persian
hats, testament to their builder, King Antiochus.
Today, as the sun sets behind the Ataturk dam to the south, their
blind eyes look out over a key pipeline - part of Turkey's energy
policy, which also must balance East and West.
Turkey receives less energy attention than it should. The European
Union tends to consider it primarily as a transit country for oil
and gas from the Caspian and Middle East.
But Turkey is the fourth-largest gas market in Europe (outside the
former Soviet Union), and the only one that is growing strongly -
more than 11 per cent a year over the past decade. By 2020, it could
well be the continent's largest gas consumer.
With Europe mired in recession, Turkey grew 8.5 per cent in 2011, even
if a slowdown last year raised concerns. Inflation has been mostly
brought under control, its young population is the second-largest in
Europe (just behind Germany) and public debt is modest.
With little domestic petroleum, the country relies heavily on gas
imports. Expensive energy purchases comprise two thirds of a worryingly
high current account deficit. More than half of Turkey's gas comes from
Russia, known to use energy as a geopolitical tool; a further 18 per
cent from Iran, often cut off in winter. Iranian supplies are coming
under pressure from United States-inspired sanctions and restrictions.
Ankara-Tehran relations have suffered further over the conflict in
Syria. Increased use of coal, nuclear and renewable energy can slow,
but not reverse the growth in gas requirements.
In principle, Turkey's geography presents it with ideal solutions. The
EU long sought to encourage it to become the "fourth corridor"
of gas imports (the other three running from Russia, North Africa
and Norway), via the Nabucco Pipeline. But Turkey's own energy needs
are more important for its policy than any desire to assist the EU -
especially after being cold-shouldered for membership.
To the east, Turkish policymakers look out over the gas-rich Caspian
- Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan - speaking languages closely related
to Turkish. To the south-east, Iraq and its Kurdish region, Ottoman
provinces less than a century ago. To the south-west, massive new
gas finds in the deep waters of the eastern Mediterranean.
But all of these regions are politically problematic. The Caspian is
the most straightforward - Turkey already buys Azeri gas. The new
Trans-Anatolian pipeline will expand imports, and run westwards to
connect to EU markets - either Italy or, via a scaled-down version
of Nabucco, into central Europe.
But eccentric, isolationist Turkmenistan has not reached agreement
with Azerbaijan on laying a pipeline under the Caspian Sea, where
the two countries dispute a border - nor is there much reason for
the Azeris to facilitate a rival.
Baghdad seems in no hurry to expedite its own gas exports, and
relations with Ankara are poor - over Syria, where the two capitals
back opposite sides, and over Turkish support for oil exports from
the Kurdish region of Iraq. But it would be a dramatic move for the
Turks to permit an independent gas pipeline from the Kurdish region-
condoning effective Kurdish independence and breaking relations
with Baghdad.
And in the Mediterranean, Turkish relations with Israel are cold,
Syria is in chaos, and the continuing dispute over the divided island
of Cyprus blocks pipeline routes.
Ankara's policy of "zero problems with neighbours" has rapidly
transformed into "many problems".
To meet its needs, Turkey needs to emulate King Antiochus and
rebuild constructive relations with at least some of its energy-rich
neighbours.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author
of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
Robin Mills
http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/energy/turkey-should-look-to-an-ancient-king-for-tips-on-energy
Feb 12, 2013
The giant stone heads scattered around Mount Nemrut in south-eastern
Turkey combine several cultures. Raised in 62 BC, these statues of
Greek, Armenian and Iranian gods have Hellenic faces but wear Persian
hats, testament to their builder, King Antiochus.
Today, as the sun sets behind the Ataturk dam to the south, their
blind eyes look out over a key pipeline - part of Turkey's energy
policy, which also must balance East and West.
Turkey receives less energy attention than it should. The European
Union tends to consider it primarily as a transit country for oil
and gas from the Caspian and Middle East.
But Turkey is the fourth-largest gas market in Europe (outside the
former Soviet Union), and the only one that is growing strongly -
more than 11 per cent a year over the past decade. By 2020, it could
well be the continent's largest gas consumer.
With Europe mired in recession, Turkey grew 8.5 per cent in 2011, even
if a slowdown last year raised concerns. Inflation has been mostly
brought under control, its young population is the second-largest in
Europe (just behind Germany) and public debt is modest.
With little domestic petroleum, the country relies heavily on gas
imports. Expensive energy purchases comprise two thirds of a worryingly
high current account deficit. More than half of Turkey's gas comes from
Russia, known to use energy as a geopolitical tool; a further 18 per
cent from Iran, often cut off in winter. Iranian supplies are coming
under pressure from United States-inspired sanctions and restrictions.
Ankara-Tehran relations have suffered further over the conflict in
Syria. Increased use of coal, nuclear and renewable energy can slow,
but not reverse the growth in gas requirements.
In principle, Turkey's geography presents it with ideal solutions. The
EU long sought to encourage it to become the "fourth corridor"
of gas imports (the other three running from Russia, North Africa
and Norway), via the Nabucco Pipeline. But Turkey's own energy needs
are more important for its policy than any desire to assist the EU -
especially after being cold-shouldered for membership.
To the east, Turkish policymakers look out over the gas-rich Caspian
- Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan - speaking languages closely related
to Turkish. To the south-east, Iraq and its Kurdish region, Ottoman
provinces less than a century ago. To the south-west, massive new
gas finds in the deep waters of the eastern Mediterranean.
But all of these regions are politically problematic. The Caspian is
the most straightforward - Turkey already buys Azeri gas. The new
Trans-Anatolian pipeline will expand imports, and run westwards to
connect to EU markets - either Italy or, via a scaled-down version
of Nabucco, into central Europe.
But eccentric, isolationist Turkmenistan has not reached agreement
with Azerbaijan on laying a pipeline under the Caspian Sea, where
the two countries dispute a border - nor is there much reason for
the Azeris to facilitate a rival.
Baghdad seems in no hurry to expedite its own gas exports, and
relations with Ankara are poor - over Syria, where the two capitals
back opposite sides, and over Turkish support for oil exports from
the Kurdish region of Iraq. But it would be a dramatic move for the
Turks to permit an independent gas pipeline from the Kurdish region-
condoning effective Kurdish independence and breaking relations
with Baghdad.
And in the Mediterranean, Turkish relations with Israel are cold,
Syria is in chaos, and the continuing dispute over the divided island
of Cyprus blocks pipeline routes.
Ankara's policy of "zero problems with neighbours" has rapidly
transformed into "many problems".
To meet its needs, Turkey needs to emulate King Antiochus and
rebuild constructive relations with at least some of its energy-rich
neighbours.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author
of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon