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CONTRADICTIONS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=926:-contradictions-within-the-government&catid=5:politics&Itemid=17
Sunday, 10 February 2013 11:42
NKR NA Standing Committee Chairman is sharing his opinion on the
existing situation in Azerbaijan The unstable domestic political
situation in Azerbaijan, which intensified after the New Year holidays,
drew the attention of the international community, giving rise to
various analyses and assumptions.
Opinions are different, but they are all focused on the fact that the
despotic regime in Azerbaijan has exhausted itself and its further
existence threatens the region.
Assessing the situation in Azerbaijan, Chairman of the NKR NA Standing
Committee on Foreign Relations Vahram Atanesian is highlighting
two circumstances. First, on January 24, when the known events took
place in the regional center of Ismailli, US former Ambassador in
Baku Richard Kozlarich (he worked as Ambassador till 1997 and now
occupies a key position at the Pentagon) made an unexpected comment and
compared the situation to the 1989 events in Beijing. On January 30,
Turan News Agency issued an official statement by the U.S. Embassy in
Baku, which comprised characteristic assessments to the situation. It
was emphasized to be the public-expected reaction, which used the
diplomatic language to call on the Azerbaijani authorities to provide
a dialogue with their citizens for ensuring their right to meetings
and freedom of speech.
The committee chairman explained the necessity of this foreword by
the fact that the U.S. Embassy in any country didn't always give so
quick and characteristic assessment to a phenomenon. According to him,
if the phenomenon's comprehension range is increasing on the level
of the former and current U.S. Ambassador, so it should be kept in
mind that the White House is more aware than we are, and it is more
observant towards phenomena. And the other circumstance: on January 26,
when it was not yet clear how the events will develop in Ismayilli,
the Embassies of the United States and Great Britain in Baku issued
almost simultaneous statements and called on their citizens in that
country to refrain from tours within Azerbaijan, because, according to
them, instability was expected there. This all cannot be considered
accidental. According to the committee chairman, the situation in
Azerbaijan seems to be going out of regularities, or, more precisely,
have already gone out of them. In a country, where the executive power
seems to control everything, up to the last screw, certain events
take place that do not fit into the imaginations about that country.
"I do not think that a popular riot has arisen in Azerbaijan or there
is a national manifestation of discontent", said the chairman of the
parliamentary committee. According to the information of different
Azerbaijani media, I can assume that this is rather a manifestation
of contradictions within the government than a protest by the
common people." In Baku, the power is already weak and imperfect,
and everything is not decided by the leader.
We should not forget that in early 2011, a number of Azerbaijani mass
media reported that the constituent meeting of the so-called Forum
of Intellectuals took place in the country house (near the city) of
famous screenwriter Rustam Ibragimbekov, at which the undesirability
of Aliyev's presidency for the third term was discussed. An option was
offered that Ilham Aliyev should hand over the power to Mrs. Aliyeva,
and the parliament should pass a law and create an institute of
national leader (this option works in Iran). Ilham Aliyev will
not nominate his candidacy, and an institute of national leader
will be created for him. He will have an impact on the adoption of
important resolutions regarding foreign relations, etc. However, the
proposal was rejected by head of the Presidential Administration Ramiz
Mehdiyev. Under Heydar Aliyev, he was the Secretary of the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan on ideology, and for
20 years, he has been the head of the presidential administration,
or, he is the head of the real power. There are two explanations for
what is happening today in Baku: either Mehdiyev is trying to provoke
instability to emphasize his indispensability or Pashayevs' clan -
relatives of the first lady, Mrs. Aliyeva, has started an offensive,
inciting the national movement for needed reforms. We can say that
today we are witnessing another round of palace coups.
What can be said about the interest of external forces? In response
to the question, Vahram Atanesian noted that all the forces were
interested in the political stability in Azerbaijan. But, there is
a line that one cannot cross: when stability is not provided by the
legislation of the country, the above mentioned statements of the
Ambassadors are used, which is a signal to Ilham Aliyev that the
United States will not support his further actions.
V. Atanesian does not exclude another important fact: today, respected
Azerbaijani analysts hint that France's relations with Azerbaijan are
mainly regulated at the level of the first lady of Azerbaijan. In
other words, if Aliyev is not a persona non grata for the Elysee
Palace, however, he is not so welcomed, so the regulation of these
relations lies with his wife. There are rumors that compromising
videos with Mehdiyev are placed at the Internet in Strasbourg, which
is sponsored by the French secret services. Presumably, Azerbaijani
authorities' attempt to neutralize in Strasbourg Elshad Abdullayev
(former rector of the Azerbaijan International University, from whom
MP G. Akhmedova took a bribe to ensure his victory at the elections
to the Milli Majlis) faced an obstacle, again by the French secret
services. Apparently, the Elysee Palace is also working to transform
the totalitarian regime in Azerbaijan.
According to Vahram Atanesian, Azerbaijan took a very imprudent step in
its foreign policy and is now paying its shot. This country continues
to conduct a traditional policy in the region, which is fraught with
war with Iran and even with Georgia. The new government of Georgia
has shown to some extent a pragmatic approach, making it clear that
two states in the South Caucasus cannot build their prosperity on
the troubles of the third state. Currently, the relations of the two
countries are rather strained. This all means that we are dealing with
a non-serious partner. And in this situation, a consensus cannot be
reached in the region; neither can be reached the level of civilized
relations, when anybody's concern becomes universal.
How likely is the resumption of war in the South Caucasus? According to
Vahram Atanesian, war is the worst scenario for the major geopolitical
players. There is just a very subtle verge: to prevent a war or not to
support the war at a certain stage. There is also a principal position,
which is not, unfortunately, reflected in harsh resolutions. At
least on the level that the co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group
do not provide weapons and ammunition to the conflicting parties,
if they don't want to increase the military escalation. According
to V. Atanesian, currently Israeli military bases are created in
Azerbaijan - in the guise of a huge military and economic deal between
the two countries: as if Azerbaijan is buying Israeli weapons and
ammunition at $ 1.6 billion. In other words, Azerbaijan has become
an Israeli military base against Iran. Of course, the great powers
could hold them back, but there is one problem: if Azerbaijan starts
its aggression against the NKR, it will not give the United States
anything, because it will be a local war.
But, if a third party intervenes, the matter will be quite different.
All these realities testify that Azerbaijan has become the most
destructive force in the region.
Ruzan ISHKHANIAN
From: Baghdasarian
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=926:-contradictions-within-the-government&catid=5:politics&Itemid=17
Sunday, 10 February 2013 11:42
NKR NA Standing Committee Chairman is sharing his opinion on the
existing situation in Azerbaijan The unstable domestic political
situation in Azerbaijan, which intensified after the New Year holidays,
drew the attention of the international community, giving rise to
various analyses and assumptions.
Opinions are different, but they are all focused on the fact that the
despotic regime in Azerbaijan has exhausted itself and its further
existence threatens the region.
Assessing the situation in Azerbaijan, Chairman of the NKR NA Standing
Committee on Foreign Relations Vahram Atanesian is highlighting
two circumstances. First, on January 24, when the known events took
place in the regional center of Ismailli, US former Ambassador in
Baku Richard Kozlarich (he worked as Ambassador till 1997 and now
occupies a key position at the Pentagon) made an unexpected comment and
compared the situation to the 1989 events in Beijing. On January 30,
Turan News Agency issued an official statement by the U.S. Embassy in
Baku, which comprised characteristic assessments to the situation. It
was emphasized to be the public-expected reaction, which used the
diplomatic language to call on the Azerbaijani authorities to provide
a dialogue with their citizens for ensuring their right to meetings
and freedom of speech.
The committee chairman explained the necessity of this foreword by
the fact that the U.S. Embassy in any country didn't always give so
quick and characteristic assessment to a phenomenon. According to him,
if the phenomenon's comprehension range is increasing on the level
of the former and current U.S. Ambassador, so it should be kept in
mind that the White House is more aware than we are, and it is more
observant towards phenomena. And the other circumstance: on January 26,
when it was not yet clear how the events will develop in Ismayilli,
the Embassies of the United States and Great Britain in Baku issued
almost simultaneous statements and called on their citizens in that
country to refrain from tours within Azerbaijan, because, according to
them, instability was expected there. This all cannot be considered
accidental. According to the committee chairman, the situation in
Azerbaijan seems to be going out of regularities, or, more precisely,
have already gone out of them. In a country, where the executive power
seems to control everything, up to the last screw, certain events
take place that do not fit into the imaginations about that country.
"I do not think that a popular riot has arisen in Azerbaijan or there
is a national manifestation of discontent", said the chairman of the
parliamentary committee. According to the information of different
Azerbaijani media, I can assume that this is rather a manifestation
of contradictions within the government than a protest by the
common people." In Baku, the power is already weak and imperfect,
and everything is not decided by the leader.
We should not forget that in early 2011, a number of Azerbaijani mass
media reported that the constituent meeting of the so-called Forum
of Intellectuals took place in the country house (near the city) of
famous screenwriter Rustam Ibragimbekov, at which the undesirability
of Aliyev's presidency for the third term was discussed. An option was
offered that Ilham Aliyev should hand over the power to Mrs. Aliyeva,
and the parliament should pass a law and create an institute of
national leader (this option works in Iran). Ilham Aliyev will
not nominate his candidacy, and an institute of national leader
will be created for him. He will have an impact on the adoption of
important resolutions regarding foreign relations, etc. However, the
proposal was rejected by head of the Presidential Administration Ramiz
Mehdiyev. Under Heydar Aliyev, he was the Secretary of the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan on ideology, and for
20 years, he has been the head of the presidential administration,
or, he is the head of the real power. There are two explanations for
what is happening today in Baku: either Mehdiyev is trying to provoke
instability to emphasize his indispensability or Pashayevs' clan -
relatives of the first lady, Mrs. Aliyeva, has started an offensive,
inciting the national movement for needed reforms. We can say that
today we are witnessing another round of palace coups.
What can be said about the interest of external forces? In response
to the question, Vahram Atanesian noted that all the forces were
interested in the political stability in Azerbaijan. But, there is
a line that one cannot cross: when stability is not provided by the
legislation of the country, the above mentioned statements of the
Ambassadors are used, which is a signal to Ilham Aliyev that the
United States will not support his further actions.
V. Atanesian does not exclude another important fact: today, respected
Azerbaijani analysts hint that France's relations with Azerbaijan are
mainly regulated at the level of the first lady of Azerbaijan. In
other words, if Aliyev is not a persona non grata for the Elysee
Palace, however, he is not so welcomed, so the regulation of these
relations lies with his wife. There are rumors that compromising
videos with Mehdiyev are placed at the Internet in Strasbourg, which
is sponsored by the French secret services. Presumably, Azerbaijani
authorities' attempt to neutralize in Strasbourg Elshad Abdullayev
(former rector of the Azerbaijan International University, from whom
MP G. Akhmedova took a bribe to ensure his victory at the elections
to the Milli Majlis) faced an obstacle, again by the French secret
services. Apparently, the Elysee Palace is also working to transform
the totalitarian regime in Azerbaijan.
According to Vahram Atanesian, Azerbaijan took a very imprudent step in
its foreign policy and is now paying its shot. This country continues
to conduct a traditional policy in the region, which is fraught with
war with Iran and even with Georgia. The new government of Georgia
has shown to some extent a pragmatic approach, making it clear that
two states in the South Caucasus cannot build their prosperity on
the troubles of the third state. Currently, the relations of the two
countries are rather strained. This all means that we are dealing with
a non-serious partner. And in this situation, a consensus cannot be
reached in the region; neither can be reached the level of civilized
relations, when anybody's concern becomes universal.
How likely is the resumption of war in the South Caucasus? According to
Vahram Atanesian, war is the worst scenario for the major geopolitical
players. There is just a very subtle verge: to prevent a war or not to
support the war at a certain stage. There is also a principal position,
which is not, unfortunately, reflected in harsh resolutions. At
least on the level that the co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group
do not provide weapons and ammunition to the conflicting parties,
if they don't want to increase the military escalation. According
to V. Atanesian, currently Israeli military bases are created in
Azerbaijan - in the guise of a huge military and economic deal between
the two countries: as if Azerbaijan is buying Israeli weapons and
ammunition at $ 1.6 billion. In other words, Azerbaijan has become
an Israeli military base against Iran. Of course, the great powers
could hold them back, but there is one problem: if Azerbaijan starts
its aggression against the NKR, it will not give the United States
anything, because it will be a local war.
But, if a third party intervenes, the matter will be quite different.
All these realities testify that Azerbaijan has become the most
destructive force in the region.
Ruzan ISHKHANIAN
From: Baghdasarian