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Unusual Election in Armenia
Igor Muradyan
17:52 15/02/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28947
The upcoming presidential election is treated superficially and
banally in Armenia and outside it, describing the current situation as
peaceful backwater. In fact, the ongoing presidential campaign does
not attract attention from outside, there is no storm and is highly
predictable. This may be a more than favorable condition because the
Armenian society has apparently preferred `historical holidays' and
sees no meaning in dramatizing the moment.
One way or another, the economically active population, first of all
young people who expect changes, still prefer the individual method of
approval rather than a public approach to problem solving. Time will
show whether it is good or bad. Proceeding from current stereotypes,
from the point of view of economy, the individual approach is more
effective, whereas political problems will apparently be solved or not
solved by a small group of people. Most probably, this calm election,
as well as predictable attitude of the international community
(particularly, world centers of generation of political evaluation) is
not only explicable but also fully meets some geopolitical interests.
First of all, it is necessary to understand that for the first time
the presidential election has a geopolitical meaning no matter how
upsetting it will be for politically `shoed' intellectuals with
different political and ideological views. The Euro-Atlantic community
can be understood because after so many years of doubts and
controversial thoughts Armenia is trying to implement a multi-vector
policy (only), trying to avoid strategic isolation which can be
absolutely possible. Time used to be indulgent but now it is time to
make a decision on what the West is supposed to do about the new
challenges.
Strangely, now the strategy of the West, including the United States,
the EU and NATO are less able to work out new strategies and tactical
approaches than in the 1990s. At that time, the world economy was
developing successfully, the Soviet Communist bloc collapsed, the
regional processes were relatively manageable while the West thought
the time of simple decisions had started. Strategic and conventional
weapons were significantly reduced, it seemed to be time for relative
and absolute reduction of military costs. The world proved more
complicated than 20 years ago, the states had ambitions which were
even more complicated than 20 years ago, the states which acquired not
only new roles not only in the economy but also in defense had
ambitions.
It is not clear what policy will be conducted across the space
stretching from the Mediterranean to China. The Americans and
Europeans continue the games with Turkey which at best will be a
method of avoiding focus of attention. States with ambitions similar
to those of Turkey have emerged in the Near East and Asia. It is not
clear what should be done about such a region as Central Asia but
China remains the most complicated country. In his first speech after
his reelection Barack Obama said the United States will not launch
military actions against terrorism beyond the country.
Hardly anyone figured out what it means, neither did the American
establishment. The Euro-Atlantic community needs partners, a lot of
different partners, and the format of NATO will be reviewed one way or
another. In this regard, despite its global nature, the NATO summit
in Chicago hardly appears as a breakthrough towards forming a global
security system. With the victory of the Republicans in 2000 it became
clear that the time of promotion of democracy in Eurasia has passed,
and the priority is security at all levels.
>From the point of view of economic, social, legal and democratic
development Armenia is not a leader in Eastern Europe and remains a
country of unsolved problems (mildly speaking). At the same time, the
state of security and defense satisfies the Western community and is
the only aspect that interests the West. No doubt the West has a lot
of pretensions to Armenia but Armenia also has a lot of pretensions to
the West. The problem is that neither the political leadership, nor
the political class has put forth these pretensions, which is also in
the interests of the Western community which has understood very well
the real abilities of the opposition, all kinds of opponent groups
which are deemed not only unable but also useless and harmful for the
solution of urgent issues. Even obviously pro-West political groups
are deemed as highly `conventional' because over a lasting period they
have behaved as consumers of `Western values' and tangible assets (to
put it more clearly, established total theft and illegality). The
elite fell into oblivion, a new elite must be shaped because time is
not waiting.
Nevertheless, immediately after the presidential election which will
be approved by the West not only pretensions will be put forth but
also a new configuration and approaches will be built in political
decision making in Armenia. In this regard, a human resource purge at
all levels of the authorities must be required. Purge is not a
revolution, it is a counterrevolution, and generally speaking, a purge
is a purge. It will be definitely different for many but there is no
place to go, experiments are not over. The western community needs
legitimate partners, whereas legitimacy on credit is something
vulnerable.
Whatever is now being done in Armenia is done on credit, and a lot of
people may have trouble as soon as the credit is overdue. The role of
the military who are adepts of geopolitical strategies will grow.
However, it cannot happen without involvement of public and
professional groups. It is clear that it would be stupid of
researchers to give Armenia the role of Latin American states. The
model is absolutely different. Moscow has understood this very well,
better than Yerevan. With such expectations the upcoming election in
Armenia appears as banal and of low interest.
Everything could have been different but we did not want to resolve
the problems on our own so we must be happy with others' projects and
hope that they will be strange to us.
From: A. Papazian
Igor Muradyan
17:52 15/02/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28947
The upcoming presidential election is treated superficially and
banally in Armenia and outside it, describing the current situation as
peaceful backwater. In fact, the ongoing presidential campaign does
not attract attention from outside, there is no storm and is highly
predictable. This may be a more than favorable condition because the
Armenian society has apparently preferred `historical holidays' and
sees no meaning in dramatizing the moment.
One way or another, the economically active population, first of all
young people who expect changes, still prefer the individual method of
approval rather than a public approach to problem solving. Time will
show whether it is good or bad. Proceeding from current stereotypes,
from the point of view of economy, the individual approach is more
effective, whereas political problems will apparently be solved or not
solved by a small group of people. Most probably, this calm election,
as well as predictable attitude of the international community
(particularly, world centers of generation of political evaluation) is
not only explicable but also fully meets some geopolitical interests.
First of all, it is necessary to understand that for the first time
the presidential election has a geopolitical meaning no matter how
upsetting it will be for politically `shoed' intellectuals with
different political and ideological views. The Euro-Atlantic community
can be understood because after so many years of doubts and
controversial thoughts Armenia is trying to implement a multi-vector
policy (only), trying to avoid strategic isolation which can be
absolutely possible. Time used to be indulgent but now it is time to
make a decision on what the West is supposed to do about the new
challenges.
Strangely, now the strategy of the West, including the United States,
the EU and NATO are less able to work out new strategies and tactical
approaches than in the 1990s. At that time, the world economy was
developing successfully, the Soviet Communist bloc collapsed, the
regional processes were relatively manageable while the West thought
the time of simple decisions had started. Strategic and conventional
weapons were significantly reduced, it seemed to be time for relative
and absolute reduction of military costs. The world proved more
complicated than 20 years ago, the states had ambitions which were
even more complicated than 20 years ago, the states which acquired not
only new roles not only in the economy but also in defense had
ambitions.
It is not clear what policy will be conducted across the space
stretching from the Mediterranean to China. The Americans and
Europeans continue the games with Turkey which at best will be a
method of avoiding focus of attention. States with ambitions similar
to those of Turkey have emerged in the Near East and Asia. It is not
clear what should be done about such a region as Central Asia but
China remains the most complicated country. In his first speech after
his reelection Barack Obama said the United States will not launch
military actions against terrorism beyond the country.
Hardly anyone figured out what it means, neither did the American
establishment. The Euro-Atlantic community needs partners, a lot of
different partners, and the format of NATO will be reviewed one way or
another. In this regard, despite its global nature, the NATO summit
in Chicago hardly appears as a breakthrough towards forming a global
security system. With the victory of the Republicans in 2000 it became
clear that the time of promotion of democracy in Eurasia has passed,
and the priority is security at all levels.
>From the point of view of economic, social, legal and democratic
development Armenia is not a leader in Eastern Europe and remains a
country of unsolved problems (mildly speaking). At the same time, the
state of security and defense satisfies the Western community and is
the only aspect that interests the West. No doubt the West has a lot
of pretensions to Armenia but Armenia also has a lot of pretensions to
the West. The problem is that neither the political leadership, nor
the political class has put forth these pretensions, which is also in
the interests of the Western community which has understood very well
the real abilities of the opposition, all kinds of opponent groups
which are deemed not only unable but also useless and harmful for the
solution of urgent issues. Even obviously pro-West political groups
are deemed as highly `conventional' because over a lasting period they
have behaved as consumers of `Western values' and tangible assets (to
put it more clearly, established total theft and illegality). The
elite fell into oblivion, a new elite must be shaped because time is
not waiting.
Nevertheless, immediately after the presidential election which will
be approved by the West not only pretensions will be put forth but
also a new configuration and approaches will be built in political
decision making in Armenia. In this regard, a human resource purge at
all levels of the authorities must be required. Purge is not a
revolution, it is a counterrevolution, and generally speaking, a purge
is a purge. It will be definitely different for many but there is no
place to go, experiments are not over. The western community needs
legitimate partners, whereas legitimacy on credit is something
vulnerable.
Whatever is now being done in Armenia is done on credit, and a lot of
people may have trouble as soon as the credit is overdue. The role of
the military who are adepts of geopolitical strategies will grow.
However, it cannot happen without involvement of public and
professional groups. It is clear that it would be stupid of
researchers to give Armenia the role of Latin American states. The
model is absolutely different. Moscow has understood this very well,
better than Yerevan. With such expectations the upcoming election in
Armenia appears as banal and of low interest.
Everything could have been different but we did not want to resolve
the problems on our own so we must be happy with others' projects and
hope that they will be strange to us.
From: A. Papazian