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For Armenia, promising changes amid elections - Stratfor
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/02/15/stratfor-on-armenia-elections/
16:09 - 15.02.13
Armenia's presidential election on Feb. 18 is unlikely to lead to any
significant political changes within the country, but it comes amid a
broader strategic shift in the South Caucasus. Due to an ongoing
political thaw between Russia and Georgia, the Armenian economy could
see a boost from increased regional economic integration, which may
also reduce Yerevan's own political isolation.
Unlike in neighboring Azerbaijan and some other authoritarian states
in the former Soviet Union, Armenian presidential elections typically
have been heavily competitive. In both 1998 and 2003, presidential
elections went to a second round because no candidate was able to
obtain the requisite 50 percent of the vote to win in the first round.
In the past, this competitiveness has occasionally led to violence and
instability in the country. The 2008 elections that ushered current
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian into power were accompanied by
protests in the capital involving tens of thousands of supporters of
the challenger, Levon Ter-Petrosian. The demonstrations turned violent
and ended only after security forces intervened, resulting in several
deaths and hundreds of injuries.
Unlike previous elections, this one is not expected to be competitive;
no candidate is seriously challenging Sarkisian and two of the
country's other top political figures, former presidents Ter-Petrosian
and Robert Kocharian, both declined to run. Consequently, the prospect
for instability or violence surrounding it is diminished. Sarkisian is
projected to win comfortably, with most polls showing him taking 60
percent to 70 percent of the vote.
In terms of foreign policy, the election is unlikely to lead to any
significant shift regardless of who emerges victorious. All candidates
broadly support Yerevan's close relationship with Russia. Moscow is
the primary provider of Armenia's energy, foreign aid and investment,
and Russia also owns many of the country's strategic assets such as
railways, telecommunications infrastructure and natural gas pipelines.
More important, Russia has 5,000 troops stationed in Armenia and
serves as a security guarantor in the country's ongoing conflict with
Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia's
geopolitical orientation is unlikely to change.
However, a significant shift is under way beyond Armenia's borders.
For the past decade, the country has served as Russia's main anchor in
the Caucasus, while Georgia pursued close ties with the United States
and NATO and Azerbaijan attempted to balance its allegiances between
the West and Russia. But since the election of Georgian Prime Minister
Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012, Tbilisi has been in the process of
improving ties with Moscow. While countries such as Azerbaijan and
Turkey are worried about this shift, Armenia strongly supports the
move. Strengthened ties between Georgia and Russia have led to renewed
interest in projects such as reviving the Georgia-Russia railway via
Abkhazia, which would give Armenia a direct rail link to Russia and
could boost the Armenian economy.
Though this project and others still face obstacles, they could reduce
Armenia's isolation in the Caucasus. Yerevan has long been a stalwart
ally of Moscow, and the emergence of a more pro-Russian tilt in the
region could boost the country's political and economic prospects.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/02/15/stratfor-on-armenia-elections/
16:09 - 15.02.13
Armenia's presidential election on Feb. 18 is unlikely to lead to any
significant political changes within the country, but it comes amid a
broader strategic shift in the South Caucasus. Due to an ongoing
political thaw between Russia and Georgia, the Armenian economy could
see a boost from increased regional economic integration, which may
also reduce Yerevan's own political isolation.
Unlike in neighboring Azerbaijan and some other authoritarian states
in the former Soviet Union, Armenian presidential elections typically
have been heavily competitive. In both 1998 and 2003, presidential
elections went to a second round because no candidate was able to
obtain the requisite 50 percent of the vote to win in the first round.
In the past, this competitiveness has occasionally led to violence and
instability in the country. The 2008 elections that ushered current
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian into power were accompanied by
protests in the capital involving tens of thousands of supporters of
the challenger, Levon Ter-Petrosian. The demonstrations turned violent
and ended only after security forces intervened, resulting in several
deaths and hundreds of injuries.
Unlike previous elections, this one is not expected to be competitive;
no candidate is seriously challenging Sarkisian and two of the
country's other top political figures, former presidents Ter-Petrosian
and Robert Kocharian, both declined to run. Consequently, the prospect
for instability or violence surrounding it is diminished. Sarkisian is
projected to win comfortably, with most polls showing him taking 60
percent to 70 percent of the vote.
In terms of foreign policy, the election is unlikely to lead to any
significant shift regardless of who emerges victorious. All candidates
broadly support Yerevan's close relationship with Russia. Moscow is
the primary provider of Armenia's energy, foreign aid and investment,
and Russia also owns many of the country's strategic assets such as
railways, telecommunications infrastructure and natural gas pipelines.
More important, Russia has 5,000 troops stationed in Armenia and
serves as a security guarantor in the country's ongoing conflict with
Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia's
geopolitical orientation is unlikely to change.
However, a significant shift is under way beyond Armenia's borders.
For the past decade, the country has served as Russia's main anchor in
the Caucasus, while Georgia pursued close ties with the United States
and NATO and Azerbaijan attempted to balance its allegiances between
the West and Russia. But since the election of Georgian Prime Minister
Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012, Tbilisi has been in the process of
improving ties with Moscow. While countries such as Azerbaijan and
Turkey are worried about this shift, Armenia strongly supports the
move. Strengthened ties between Georgia and Russia have led to renewed
interest in projects such as reviving the Georgia-Russia railway via
Abkhazia, which would give Armenia a direct rail link to Russia and
could boost the Armenian economy.
Though this project and others still face obstacles, they could reduce
Armenia's isolation in the Caucasus. Yerevan has long been a stalwart
ally of Moscow, and the emergence of a more pro-Russian tilt in the
region could boost the country's political and economic prospects.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress