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ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN STILL SKIRTING WAR IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH - THE STAR
TERT.AM
15:54 ~U 21.02.13
By Olivia Ward
In the 1990s, the aftershocks of the Soviet Union's collapse kept on
coming in the fractious southern Caucasus.
Georgia fought two separatist wars. Russia battled Chechen rebels. And
the tiny disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh exploded into conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In the 21st century, two out of the three - Georgia and Chechnya - went
back to war. And this week - on the 25th anniversary of a vote that
launched two decades of unresolved ethnic strife in Nagorno-Karabakh,
a leading expert on the little known region says it could be next.
"The risk may seem relatively low," said Thomas de Waal of the Carnegie
Endowment, "but the only thing that is stopping a war is the leaders'
own calculation."
Nagorno-Karabakh was shared for centuries by Muslim Azeris and
Christian Armenians. But after the First World War, the newly-formed
Soviet Union created a largely Armenian autonomous region of
Nagorno-Karabakh within the republic of Azerbaijan. In February 1988,
the local Soviet parliament for Karabakh voted to join Armenia,
touching off an inter-ethnic explosion.
Some 30,000 people died in conflicts that left ethnic Armenians
as victors, who occupied new territory in Azerbaijan to create a
buffer zone and corridor linking Karabakh and Armenia. The enclave
was declared an independent - but unrecognized - republic.
War broke out again, and pogroms of Armenians and Azeris forced both
groups to flee their homes. A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the
fighting in 1994. But more than 1 million ethnic Azeris and Armenians
still cannot return home.
Since then, the tiny territory of about 160,000 people - one-fifth
the area of Nova Scotia - has become a "frozen conflict" zone despite
rounds of peace talks to settle its status.
Meanwhile, said de Waal, Azerbaijan has become an economic oil giant
in the region, but with a democratic deficit. President Ilham Aliyev's
regime is using its new-found wealth to equip and expand the army. It
is also ratcheting up tensions with anti-Armenian rhetoric.
In one of the most extreme cases, 75-year-old writer Akram Aylisli
was burnt in effigy for a book he wrote to heal relations between
ethnic Azerbaijanis and Armenians, and a pro-government party offered
a $13,000 bounty for cutting off his ear.
"Azerbaijan doesn't want a compromise with people who 'stole our land,'
" de Waal said last week at University of Toronto's Munk Centre. "It
spends $4 billion a year on its army."
As Karabakh Armenians see themselves losing the arms race, some favour
a "knockout blow" against Azerbaijan before the point of no return
is reached.
"There's also the possibility of an accidental war started along the
ceasefire line - one day someone could lob a mortar shell across it,"
said de Waal. In an uneasy neighbourhood that includes traditional foes
Iran, Turkey and Russia, a renewed conflict could have a ripple effect.
Both sides routinely attend sporadic peace talks and say they want a
peace deal. But with Azerbaijan demanding a return of Karabakh, with
some autonomy, and Armenia insisting on independence, it's unlikely
to happen soon.
"There are perfectly sensible plans for peace, but there have to be
basic levels of trust," de Waal said. "Now there's a lack of both
trust and interaction."
TERT.AM
15:54 ~U 21.02.13
By Olivia Ward
In the 1990s, the aftershocks of the Soviet Union's collapse kept on
coming in the fractious southern Caucasus.
Georgia fought two separatist wars. Russia battled Chechen rebels. And
the tiny disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh exploded into conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In the 21st century, two out of the three - Georgia and Chechnya - went
back to war. And this week - on the 25th anniversary of a vote that
launched two decades of unresolved ethnic strife in Nagorno-Karabakh,
a leading expert on the little known region says it could be next.
"The risk may seem relatively low," said Thomas de Waal of the Carnegie
Endowment, "but the only thing that is stopping a war is the leaders'
own calculation."
Nagorno-Karabakh was shared for centuries by Muslim Azeris and
Christian Armenians. But after the First World War, the newly-formed
Soviet Union created a largely Armenian autonomous region of
Nagorno-Karabakh within the republic of Azerbaijan. In February 1988,
the local Soviet parliament for Karabakh voted to join Armenia,
touching off an inter-ethnic explosion.
Some 30,000 people died in conflicts that left ethnic Armenians
as victors, who occupied new territory in Azerbaijan to create a
buffer zone and corridor linking Karabakh and Armenia. The enclave
was declared an independent - but unrecognized - republic.
War broke out again, and pogroms of Armenians and Azeris forced both
groups to flee their homes. A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the
fighting in 1994. But more than 1 million ethnic Azeris and Armenians
still cannot return home.
Since then, the tiny territory of about 160,000 people - one-fifth
the area of Nova Scotia - has become a "frozen conflict" zone despite
rounds of peace talks to settle its status.
Meanwhile, said de Waal, Azerbaijan has become an economic oil giant
in the region, but with a democratic deficit. President Ilham Aliyev's
regime is using its new-found wealth to equip and expand the army. It
is also ratcheting up tensions with anti-Armenian rhetoric.
In one of the most extreme cases, 75-year-old writer Akram Aylisli
was burnt in effigy for a book he wrote to heal relations between
ethnic Azerbaijanis and Armenians, and a pro-government party offered
a $13,000 bounty for cutting off his ear.
"Azerbaijan doesn't want a compromise with people who 'stole our land,'
" de Waal said last week at University of Toronto's Munk Centre. "It
spends $4 billion a year on its army."
As Karabakh Armenians see themselves losing the arms race, some favour
a "knockout blow" against Azerbaijan before the point of no return
is reached.
"There's also the possibility of an accidental war started along the
ceasefire line - one day someone could lob a mortar shell across it,"
said de Waal. In an uneasy neighbourhood that includes traditional foes
Iran, Turkey and Russia, a renewed conflict could have a ripple effect.
Both sides routinely attend sporadic peace talks and say they want a
peace deal. But with Azerbaijan demanding a return of Karabakh, with
some autonomy, and Armenia insisting on independence, it's unlikely
to happen soon.
"There are perfectly sensible plans for peace, but there have to be
basic levels of trust," de Waal said. "Now there's a lack of both
trust and interaction."