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QAZVIN-RASHT-ASTARA OR IRAN-ARMENIA?
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6912
Sevak Sarukhanyan
Deputy Director of "Noravank" Foundation, Head of the Center for
Political Studies, Ph.D. (Political Studies)
Recently the discussions on the development of the railway service
have stirred up in the South Caucasus and Armenia. This is mostly
conditioned by the change of the leadership in Georgia in 2012 after
which a new government was formed. Unlike the previous one it tends
to improve the relations with Russia which in its turn brings into
focus possibility of re-running the Georgian-Abkhazian railway.
But despite the results of the Georgian-Russian and Armenian-Georgian
negotiations there are already railways projects implemented in the
South Caucasus which tend to take leading positions in the regional
transport system. There are two such projects - Kars-Akhlkalaki and
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railways. They both may greatly affect Armenia as
their implementation will indirectly bring to the deepening of the
transport blockade of the Republic of Armenia. Hence in our opinion
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is of greater significance for Armenia as,
by creating direct railway connection between the Persian Gulf and
Azerbaijan, it will directly influence transport prospects of the Rep.
of Armenia. And there are such prospects especially if we take into
consideration the possibility of re-running of the Abkhazian railway.
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara and Iran-Armenia railways
Back in 2004 Russian-Iranian-Azerbaijani declaration on building
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway was signed in Tehran and in 2005 it was
followed by an appropriate agreement. The fact that Russia also signed
the agreement is understandable. The railway connecting Iranian Qazvin
and Azerbaijani Astara is an integral and important part of North-South
international transport corridor which aims not only connecting Iranian
and Azerbaijani railways but also to connect Iranian Bender-Abas port
with Russian railways through the territory of Azerbaijan. This project
is of great geopolitical significance because it will link the markets
of South and South East Asia with Russia and Europe by means of almost
direct railway which will result in off-loading of the cargo traffic
through the Suez Canal. The significance of these prospects has sharply
grown today when Egypt is indulged into the long political crisis.
According to different economic researches annually 25-26 million
tons can be transported by means of the railway which will make it
into one of the world's biggest transportation hubs.
In this aspect both Russians and Iranians are very interested in the
building of the railway and the same can be said about Azerbaijan
too; it tends to become transition country not only for oil and gas
export but also for cargo transportation. This is rather an attempt
to restore old status when there was a railway communication between
Iran and Azerbaijan in the Soviet period, than a new prospect. The
only difference is that this communication was maintained through
the Nakhijevan and Armenian SSR which is today impossible.
But it should also be underlined that Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway
is also an indirect competitor of the Armenian transport projects,
the most important of which is the prospect of building Iran-Armenia
railway. Unfortunately while discussing building of the railway
most of the attention in Armenia is paid to the commodity turnover
between Armenia and Iran. We say unfortunately because if we consider
the significance of building a railway only in the aspect of the
Armenian-Iranian cooperation the conclusions will be obvious. Taking
into consideration the small volume of the Armenian-Iranian commodity
turnover and its one-sidedness (80% of general turnover is directed
from Iran to Armenia) the railway is not profitable and it should not
be built. This is wrong approach which does not take into consideration
the fact that almost all the railways built all over the world are
solving rather regional than inter-state issues. And which is the
regional significance of Iran-Armenia railway? It is almost the same
as the one of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway and the only difference is
that instead of the Azerbaijani territory it will pass through the
territories of Armenia and Georgia. Of course in case if we consider
that the Abkhazian railway will be re-opened. But even in case if
it is not re-opened, it should be taken into consideration that
Iran-Armenia railway will connect two other transportation hubs -
Bender-Abas and Georgian Black Sea Poti port.
This fact and prospect is appreciated not only by the Iranians but
also by the Chinese who are interested in the building of Iran-Armenia
railway.
Thus, for Armenia the factual state the construction of
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is important.
Is Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway being built?
This is one of the most crucial and enigmatic issues. Formally the
railway is built at an accelerated tempo as it received necessary
financing in 2011. By the approved 2011-2012 Iranian budget $111
million which had to provide completion of the project and putting
the railway into commission, were allotted. But in September 2012
Iranian party send an official letter to the head of the "Russian
Railways" Valdimir Yakunin with a request to finance the building of
the railway. In October 2012 during Vladimir Yakunin's visit to Tehran,
the Russian party did not conclude any agreement on funding the railway
building with Iran thus, factually, giving up on the offer to finance
the works. But the interesting fact about this is that the Iranian
media and state officials have been reporting in different ways on
the condition of the railway since 2010. If the official statement
of the Ministry of Roads and Transportation of Iran read that 70%
of works were completed and general works would be over in 2010,
in 2012 the new Minister of Transportation of Iran Ali Nikzad stated
that only 50% of works were completed and the completion of project
was planned by the end of 2015.
The main reason of such a discord can, most probably, be conditioned
by hard economic situation in Iran due to which financing of a
number of big projects was ceased. It is not excluded that $111
million allotted for 2011-2012 did not reach the railway and were
redirected to softening difficult financial situation caused by the
international sanctions.
In 2012-2013 uncertainty around the railway's prospects still
preserves. According to the Minister of Roads and Transportation of
Iran Ahmed Sadeghi 67% of the construction works has been completed
and in 2014 it will be fully put into commission. The feasibility
of these prospects is an important issue because almost all the
optimistic statements are made by the Iranian party at the meetings
with the Azerbaijani officials. Moreover, it is remarkable that the
Iranian media almost does not turn to the railway even though for
propagandistic purposes almost all the more or less remarkable projects
are covered. The same cannot be said of building of the Iran-Armenia
railway which has not been started yet but it is mentioned about the
railway building and prospects almost in all the publications in the
Iranian media devoted to Armenia.
It is obvious that the Iranian party is very interested in Iran-Armenia
project from political point of view, because Armenia and Georgia
for Iran is one thing and Azerbaijan is the other thing. There are
practically no chances to improve the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations
the deteriorated over the last year because such an improvement is
hampered by both "Iranian policy" of Azerbaijan, and failure of the
policy of establishment of active Iranian-Turkish cooperation. And
change of the leadership in Georgia created grounds for Tehran to
expect that the "Georgian road" to Russia can be opened, thus creating
serious alternative to the road going through Azerbaijan.
"Globus" analytical journal, #2, 2013
Return Another materials of author IRAN AND SANCTIONS[10.12.2012]
SIGNIFICANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR ARMENIA [27.09.2012] ON THE
REGIONAL POLICY OF IRAN[28.06.2012] TURKISH FACTOR IN "LEVIATHAN" AND
"APHRODITE" ENERGY "WARS"[03.05.2012] POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN
AND POSSIBLE IRAN-US COLLISION[22.03.2012] IRAN AND DEVELOPMENTS IN
SYRIA[26.01.2012] ON REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS[05.12.2011] IRAN:
DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS[26.09.2011] POLITICAL
PROCESSES IN IRAN: IDEOLOGICAL STRUGGLE [21.07.2011] POLITICAL
PROCESSES IN IRAN[27.06.2011]
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6912
Sevak Sarukhanyan
Deputy Director of "Noravank" Foundation, Head of the Center for
Political Studies, Ph.D. (Political Studies)
Recently the discussions on the development of the railway service
have stirred up in the South Caucasus and Armenia. This is mostly
conditioned by the change of the leadership in Georgia in 2012 after
which a new government was formed. Unlike the previous one it tends
to improve the relations with Russia which in its turn brings into
focus possibility of re-running the Georgian-Abkhazian railway.
But despite the results of the Georgian-Russian and Armenian-Georgian
negotiations there are already railways projects implemented in the
South Caucasus which tend to take leading positions in the regional
transport system. There are two such projects - Kars-Akhlkalaki and
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railways. They both may greatly affect Armenia as
their implementation will indirectly bring to the deepening of the
transport blockade of the Republic of Armenia. Hence in our opinion
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is of greater significance for Armenia as,
by creating direct railway connection between the Persian Gulf and
Azerbaijan, it will directly influence transport prospects of the Rep.
of Armenia. And there are such prospects especially if we take into
consideration the possibility of re-running of the Abkhazian railway.
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara and Iran-Armenia railways
Back in 2004 Russian-Iranian-Azerbaijani declaration on building
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway was signed in Tehran and in 2005 it was
followed by an appropriate agreement. The fact that Russia also signed
the agreement is understandable. The railway connecting Iranian Qazvin
and Azerbaijani Astara is an integral and important part of North-South
international transport corridor which aims not only connecting Iranian
and Azerbaijani railways but also to connect Iranian Bender-Abas port
with Russian railways through the territory of Azerbaijan. This project
is of great geopolitical significance because it will link the markets
of South and South East Asia with Russia and Europe by means of almost
direct railway which will result in off-loading of the cargo traffic
through the Suez Canal. The significance of these prospects has sharply
grown today when Egypt is indulged into the long political crisis.
According to different economic researches annually 25-26 million
tons can be transported by means of the railway which will make it
into one of the world's biggest transportation hubs.
In this aspect both Russians and Iranians are very interested in the
building of the railway and the same can be said about Azerbaijan
too; it tends to become transition country not only for oil and gas
export but also for cargo transportation. This is rather an attempt
to restore old status when there was a railway communication between
Iran and Azerbaijan in the Soviet period, than a new prospect. The
only difference is that this communication was maintained through
the Nakhijevan and Armenian SSR which is today impossible.
But it should also be underlined that Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway
is also an indirect competitor of the Armenian transport projects,
the most important of which is the prospect of building Iran-Armenia
railway. Unfortunately while discussing building of the railway
most of the attention in Armenia is paid to the commodity turnover
between Armenia and Iran. We say unfortunately because if we consider
the significance of building a railway only in the aspect of the
Armenian-Iranian cooperation the conclusions will be obvious. Taking
into consideration the small volume of the Armenian-Iranian commodity
turnover and its one-sidedness (80% of general turnover is directed
from Iran to Armenia) the railway is not profitable and it should not
be built. This is wrong approach which does not take into consideration
the fact that almost all the railways built all over the world are
solving rather regional than inter-state issues. And which is the
regional significance of Iran-Armenia railway? It is almost the same
as the one of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway and the only difference is
that instead of the Azerbaijani territory it will pass through the
territories of Armenia and Georgia. Of course in case if we consider
that the Abkhazian railway will be re-opened. But even in case if
it is not re-opened, it should be taken into consideration that
Iran-Armenia railway will connect two other transportation hubs -
Bender-Abas and Georgian Black Sea Poti port.
This fact and prospect is appreciated not only by the Iranians but
also by the Chinese who are interested in the building of Iran-Armenia
railway.
Thus, for Armenia the factual state the construction of
Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway is important.
Is Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway being built?
This is one of the most crucial and enigmatic issues. Formally the
railway is built at an accelerated tempo as it received necessary
financing in 2011. By the approved 2011-2012 Iranian budget $111
million which had to provide completion of the project and putting
the railway into commission, were allotted. But in September 2012
Iranian party send an official letter to the head of the "Russian
Railways" Valdimir Yakunin with a request to finance the building of
the railway. In October 2012 during Vladimir Yakunin's visit to Tehran,
the Russian party did not conclude any agreement on funding the railway
building with Iran thus, factually, giving up on the offer to finance
the works. But the interesting fact about this is that the Iranian
media and state officials have been reporting in different ways on
the condition of the railway since 2010. If the official statement
of the Ministry of Roads and Transportation of Iran read that 70%
of works were completed and general works would be over in 2010,
in 2012 the new Minister of Transportation of Iran Ali Nikzad stated
that only 50% of works were completed and the completion of project
was planned by the end of 2015.
The main reason of such a discord can, most probably, be conditioned
by hard economic situation in Iran due to which financing of a
number of big projects was ceased. It is not excluded that $111
million allotted for 2011-2012 did not reach the railway and were
redirected to softening difficult financial situation caused by the
international sanctions.
In 2012-2013 uncertainty around the railway's prospects still
preserves. According to the Minister of Roads and Transportation of
Iran Ahmed Sadeghi 67% of the construction works has been completed
and in 2014 it will be fully put into commission. The feasibility
of these prospects is an important issue because almost all the
optimistic statements are made by the Iranian party at the meetings
with the Azerbaijani officials. Moreover, it is remarkable that the
Iranian media almost does not turn to the railway even though for
propagandistic purposes almost all the more or less remarkable projects
are covered. The same cannot be said of building of the Iran-Armenia
railway which has not been started yet but it is mentioned about the
railway building and prospects almost in all the publications in the
Iranian media devoted to Armenia.
It is obvious that the Iranian party is very interested in Iran-Armenia
project from political point of view, because Armenia and Georgia
for Iran is one thing and Azerbaijan is the other thing. There are
practically no chances to improve the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations
the deteriorated over the last year because such an improvement is
hampered by both "Iranian policy" of Azerbaijan, and failure of the
policy of establishment of active Iranian-Turkish cooperation. And
change of the leadership in Georgia created grounds for Tehran to
expect that the "Georgian road" to Russia can be opened, thus creating
serious alternative to the road going through Azerbaijan.
"Globus" analytical journal, #2, 2013
Return Another materials of author IRAN AND SANCTIONS[10.12.2012]
SIGNIFICANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR ARMENIA [27.09.2012] ON THE
REGIONAL POLICY OF IRAN[28.06.2012] TURKISH FACTOR IN "LEVIATHAN" AND
"APHRODITE" ENERGY "WARS"[03.05.2012] POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN
AND POSSIBLE IRAN-US COLLISION[22.03.2012] IRAN AND DEVELOPMENTS IN
SYRIA[26.01.2012] ON REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS[05.12.2011] IRAN:
DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS[26.09.2011] POLITICAL
PROCESSES IN IRAN: IDEOLOGICAL STRUGGLE [21.07.2011] POLITICAL
PROCESSES IN IRAN[27.06.2011]