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Serzh Sargsyan and Putin's Troops
Naira Hayrumyan
12:04 23/02/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
During the rally yesterday Raffi Hovannisian said he suggested three
things which Serzh Sargsyan declined. He suggested a new presidential
election, punishing those who rigged the elections, disbanding the
parliament and holding a parliamentary election. Serzh Sargsyan
declined all the three.
Either Serzh Sargsyan does not understand how serious the moment is or
he thinks he has strong guarantees for his post. Apparently, he
received those guarantees from Moscow. While in a TV debate the
representatives of the Heritage Party insisted on the victory of Raffi
Hovannisian, and Khosrov Harutiunyan said, `Well, what can we do,
telephone Putin.'
Serzh Sargsyan received guarantees from Moscow evidence to which is
Putin's congratulation which was the first among heads of states. He
thus hinted to others that Serzh Sargsyan is under his personal
protection.
Will Putin's guarantee be enough to maintain `stability' in Armenia?
How objectively does Serzh Sargsyan assess the situation? Does he
understand that a lot has changed since 2008? The movement was
powerful then but people were not ready for that.
First, in 2008 the social and economic situation in Armenia was on the
rise, and a lot of people had a lot to lose. By 2013 the economic
policy of the government had led the country to a point when there is
nothing to lose, no place to fall. While in 2008 there was fear from
the almighty system which is capable of terror, in 2013 this fear has
been overcome. Evidence is the vote of people in most towns for the
presidential candidate, not fearing to undergo duress by the ruling
group. While in 2008 people were divided to supporters of
pseudo-stability and revolution, in 2013 there is only one division
between people and the ruling group.
Serzh Sargsyan is like a fortress in a siege. He and his team have dug
into government buildings and do not wish to negotiate with people.
Serzh Sargsyan declined the reasonable idea of a new parliamentary
election out of fear to leave the fortress and lose his team which is
still beside him. His decision to cancel the rally to celebrate his
`victory' shows that he understands the inappropriateness of
celebrating victory.
Why is Serzh Sargsyan reluctant to sacrifice his team which is the
reason of his failure? Is it a human feeling of loyalty (even though
his team did everything to betray his victory)? Or is he so weak to
deal with a group of oligarchs and now carries out their decisions? Or
has Putin promised him real assistance in case Raffi (or the United
States) stages a revolution? After all, Putin has given the CSTO the
mandate to intervene in domestic affairs of its member states so the
CSTO `oprichniki' will protect Serzh Sargsyan.
However, a situation when the ruling group calling Borduzha for rescue
has camped on one side of barricades, while people walk freely on the
other side may turn a new hypostasis. People may use their key weapon
- civil disobedience. One day they may refuse to attend classes, go to
work, pay taxes. One such day and the government will collapse. And
even Putin's soldiers will not be able to help. They will not be able
to walk door to door and call people drinking tea at their homes to go
to work.
Naira Hayrumyan
12:04 23/02/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
During the rally yesterday Raffi Hovannisian said he suggested three
things which Serzh Sargsyan declined. He suggested a new presidential
election, punishing those who rigged the elections, disbanding the
parliament and holding a parliamentary election. Serzh Sargsyan
declined all the three.
Either Serzh Sargsyan does not understand how serious the moment is or
he thinks he has strong guarantees for his post. Apparently, he
received those guarantees from Moscow. While in a TV debate the
representatives of the Heritage Party insisted on the victory of Raffi
Hovannisian, and Khosrov Harutiunyan said, `Well, what can we do,
telephone Putin.'
Serzh Sargsyan received guarantees from Moscow evidence to which is
Putin's congratulation which was the first among heads of states. He
thus hinted to others that Serzh Sargsyan is under his personal
protection.
Will Putin's guarantee be enough to maintain `stability' in Armenia?
How objectively does Serzh Sargsyan assess the situation? Does he
understand that a lot has changed since 2008? The movement was
powerful then but people were not ready for that.
First, in 2008 the social and economic situation in Armenia was on the
rise, and a lot of people had a lot to lose. By 2013 the economic
policy of the government had led the country to a point when there is
nothing to lose, no place to fall. While in 2008 there was fear from
the almighty system which is capable of terror, in 2013 this fear has
been overcome. Evidence is the vote of people in most towns for the
presidential candidate, not fearing to undergo duress by the ruling
group. While in 2008 people were divided to supporters of
pseudo-stability and revolution, in 2013 there is only one division
between people and the ruling group.
Serzh Sargsyan is like a fortress in a siege. He and his team have dug
into government buildings and do not wish to negotiate with people.
Serzh Sargsyan declined the reasonable idea of a new parliamentary
election out of fear to leave the fortress and lose his team which is
still beside him. His decision to cancel the rally to celebrate his
`victory' shows that he understands the inappropriateness of
celebrating victory.
Why is Serzh Sargsyan reluctant to sacrifice his team which is the
reason of his failure? Is it a human feeling of loyalty (even though
his team did everything to betray his victory)? Or is he so weak to
deal with a group of oligarchs and now carries out their decisions? Or
has Putin promised him real assistance in case Raffi (or the United
States) stages a revolution? After all, Putin has given the CSTO the
mandate to intervene in domestic affairs of its member states so the
CSTO `oprichniki' will protect Serzh Sargsyan.
However, a situation when the ruling group calling Borduzha for rescue
has camped on one side of barricades, while people walk freely on the
other side may turn a new hypostasis. People may use their key weapon
- civil disobedience. One day they may refuse to attend classes, go to
work, pay taxes. One such day and the government will collapse. And
even Putin's soldiers will not be able to help. They will not be able
to walk door to door and call people drinking tea at their homes to go
to work.