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SCENARIOS OF HOW APRICOT-COLORED STORM BIRD MAY APPEAR IN ARMENIA
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Monday, February 25, 23:32
Judging from what is going on after Feb 18, the past presidential
election may well become a kind of a storm bird heralding something
the supporters of runner-off Raffi Hovannisian have already called
"an apricot revolution." Hovannisian has already urged the Central
Electoral Commission to cancel the results of the voting in several
dozens of electoral districts, but the CEC has already recognized
the victory of Serzh Sargsyan, so, it is for Hovannisian to say the
final say here...
The storm of indignation that covered Armenia's second biggest city,
Gyumri, following Sargsyan's victory implies that the post-election
period will hardly be peaceful.
Hovannisian must be perfectly aware of this: it took him just an hour
to respond to the CEC's final results with a declaration of commitment
to continue his "revolution of greetings" all over Armenia. One more
argument that "the apricot revolution" is possible is the number of
protesters - from 7,000 to 15,000, according to different sources.
Liberty Square has not seen so many people together since Mar 1 2008.
And the regime has no guarantees that this number will not grow to a
level that will enable Hovannisian to dictate terms to those inside
the presidential residence. If supported by the ARFD and certain
anti-governmental politicians, this force may become a decisive factor.
Judging from the official results, the Republicans have achieved
their key goal - to avoid a run-off election without using "extra"
votes and thereby to restore Sargsyan's legitimacy in the eyes of
the world community. As many as 632 observers from 12 international
organizations have said that the violations registered during the
voting were not significant and had no influence on the outcome.
Sargsyan has received congratulations from lots of colleagues already.
So, quite a lot of external forces, including Russia and the United
States, appear to be willing to see Sargsyan as Armenia's President
in the next five years. The only unwilling are... the Armenian people
and they have reasons for this. They in Heritage Party are sure that
the violations registered during the voting were orchestrated from
one center.
Those supporting the local oligarchs did their best to prevent the
people from expressing their will. So, we can say that had the voting
been fair, Raffi Hovannisian might have won the race or at least
might have booked a place in the run-off. The crowd that is coming
to Liberty Square to support Hovannisian is the best proof that the
people are no longer willing to stand the regime's tyranny.
So, there are three possible ways for the things to develop. The
first scenario is called "Apricot Revolution": Hovannisian inspires
wide masses with his handshakes and messages and they will make
a resolution.
In Armenia there has been no alternative to the regime since 1991. On
Feb 18 it appeared. Quite helpful in the matter were the refusals
of the Armenian National Congress, ARFD and Prosperous Armenia to
run for presidency. And the "official" votes of 37% of the Armenian
voters are the best proof of this.
Whether this scenario is possible or not depends mostly on
Hovannisian's firmness and integrity in seeking power.
The second scenario is imitative. Given Serzh Sargsyan's firm
commitment to implementation of any scenarios directed against the
real political opponents, one could suppose that the RPA decided
to use Hovannisian in order to distract the public attention from
more serious political rivals for the authorities. A similar thing
happened in Jan-Feb 2011, when Leader of the People's Party Tigran
Karapetyan unexpectedly gathered several thousands of people near
Matenadaran, who demanded change of power. The "incorrupt" leader of
the People's Party managed to achieve the final fragmentation of the
ANC electorate, as his "rallies" were held almost simultaneously with
the rallies of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. However, considering the option
of the authorities' "appointing" Hovannisian as the opposition leader,
one should not forget that he has no alternative at the moment. Neither
Prosperous Armenia nor the ANC or the ARFD leads the opposition. Today
it is Hovannisian that has obtained the protesting votes of the
society. Therefore, it is rather hard to imagine the reasons why the
incumbent president might blow up the bubble called "Raffi".
Given the flexibility of chess player Sargsyan and the extreme
inconsistency of diplomat Hovannisian, one should not ignore provision
of high posts to the latter or to the representatives of his team,
though the President's motivation also causes questions. In particular,
it is not clear why the authorities needed to artificially nurture
Hovannisian to buy him off later.
The third possible scenario is also imitative. Actually, the
authorities might use the protest movement led by Hovannisian in order
to imitate the prospects for an "orange" revolution in Armenia in the
Kremlin's eyes. Californian Hovannisian as president of Armenia would
have become a real nightmare for Moscow, given that this would have
inevitably led to the loss of the country considered by the Kremlin
as the last outpost beyond the Caucasian Mountain Range. Therefore,
Serzh Sargsyan is an example of loyalty for the Kremlin, especially
as compared with Raffi Hovannisian.
In this context, the Western observers' unanimous recognition of
the election results causes bewilderment. For Europe and the USA,
pro-Western Raffi Hovannisian would have looked much more attractive
than "homo sovieticus" Serzh Sargsyan. However, to all appearances, the
numerous meetings of the Heritage leader with the diplomats accredited
in Armenia failed to inspire him such confidence. In the meantime, it
is early to rule out the use of the Heritage leader for implementation
of certain Western projects. Thus, only time will help estimate
the real chances of the arrival of an apricot-colored storm bird to
Armenia and to analyze its possible, even negative consequences.
From: Baghdasarian
by David Stepanyan
ARMINFO
Monday, February 25, 23:32
Judging from what is going on after Feb 18, the past presidential
election may well become a kind of a storm bird heralding something
the supporters of runner-off Raffi Hovannisian have already called
"an apricot revolution." Hovannisian has already urged the Central
Electoral Commission to cancel the results of the voting in several
dozens of electoral districts, but the CEC has already recognized
the victory of Serzh Sargsyan, so, it is for Hovannisian to say the
final say here...
The storm of indignation that covered Armenia's second biggest city,
Gyumri, following Sargsyan's victory implies that the post-election
period will hardly be peaceful.
Hovannisian must be perfectly aware of this: it took him just an hour
to respond to the CEC's final results with a declaration of commitment
to continue his "revolution of greetings" all over Armenia. One more
argument that "the apricot revolution" is possible is the number of
protesters - from 7,000 to 15,000, according to different sources.
Liberty Square has not seen so many people together since Mar 1 2008.
And the regime has no guarantees that this number will not grow to a
level that will enable Hovannisian to dictate terms to those inside
the presidential residence. If supported by the ARFD and certain
anti-governmental politicians, this force may become a decisive factor.
Judging from the official results, the Republicans have achieved
their key goal - to avoid a run-off election without using "extra"
votes and thereby to restore Sargsyan's legitimacy in the eyes of
the world community. As many as 632 observers from 12 international
organizations have said that the violations registered during the
voting were not significant and had no influence on the outcome.
Sargsyan has received congratulations from lots of colleagues already.
So, quite a lot of external forces, including Russia and the United
States, appear to be willing to see Sargsyan as Armenia's President
in the next five years. The only unwilling are... the Armenian people
and they have reasons for this. They in Heritage Party are sure that
the violations registered during the voting were orchestrated from
one center.
Those supporting the local oligarchs did their best to prevent the
people from expressing their will. So, we can say that had the voting
been fair, Raffi Hovannisian might have won the race or at least
might have booked a place in the run-off. The crowd that is coming
to Liberty Square to support Hovannisian is the best proof that the
people are no longer willing to stand the regime's tyranny.
So, there are three possible ways for the things to develop. The
first scenario is called "Apricot Revolution": Hovannisian inspires
wide masses with his handshakes and messages and they will make
a resolution.
In Armenia there has been no alternative to the regime since 1991. On
Feb 18 it appeared. Quite helpful in the matter were the refusals
of the Armenian National Congress, ARFD and Prosperous Armenia to
run for presidency. And the "official" votes of 37% of the Armenian
voters are the best proof of this.
Whether this scenario is possible or not depends mostly on
Hovannisian's firmness and integrity in seeking power.
The second scenario is imitative. Given Serzh Sargsyan's firm
commitment to implementation of any scenarios directed against the
real political opponents, one could suppose that the RPA decided
to use Hovannisian in order to distract the public attention from
more serious political rivals for the authorities. A similar thing
happened in Jan-Feb 2011, when Leader of the People's Party Tigran
Karapetyan unexpectedly gathered several thousands of people near
Matenadaran, who demanded change of power. The "incorrupt" leader of
the People's Party managed to achieve the final fragmentation of the
ANC electorate, as his "rallies" were held almost simultaneously with
the rallies of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. However, considering the option
of the authorities' "appointing" Hovannisian as the opposition leader,
one should not forget that he has no alternative at the moment. Neither
Prosperous Armenia nor the ANC or the ARFD leads the opposition. Today
it is Hovannisian that has obtained the protesting votes of the
society. Therefore, it is rather hard to imagine the reasons why the
incumbent president might blow up the bubble called "Raffi".
Given the flexibility of chess player Sargsyan and the extreme
inconsistency of diplomat Hovannisian, one should not ignore provision
of high posts to the latter or to the representatives of his team,
though the President's motivation also causes questions. In particular,
it is not clear why the authorities needed to artificially nurture
Hovannisian to buy him off later.
The third possible scenario is also imitative. Actually, the
authorities might use the protest movement led by Hovannisian in order
to imitate the prospects for an "orange" revolution in Armenia in the
Kremlin's eyes. Californian Hovannisian as president of Armenia would
have become a real nightmare for Moscow, given that this would have
inevitably led to the loss of the country considered by the Kremlin
as the last outpost beyond the Caucasian Mountain Range. Therefore,
Serzh Sargsyan is an example of loyalty for the Kremlin, especially
as compared with Raffi Hovannisian.
In this context, the Western observers' unanimous recognition of
the election results causes bewilderment. For Europe and the USA,
pro-Western Raffi Hovannisian would have looked much more attractive
than "homo sovieticus" Serzh Sargsyan. However, to all appearances, the
numerous meetings of the Heritage leader with the diplomats accredited
in Armenia failed to inspire him such confidence. In the meantime, it
is early to rule out the use of the Heritage leader for implementation
of certain Western projects. Thus, only time will help estimate
the real chances of the arrival of an apricot-colored storm bird to
Armenia and to analyze its possible, even negative consequences.
From: Baghdasarian