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PUTIN PLANS ON HOLD?: MAGNITSKY BILL FALLOUT SAID TO INTERFERE WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT'S ARMENIA VISIT PLANS
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/42470/armenia_putin_visit_eurasian_union
ANALYSIS | 11.01.13 | 14:35
Photo: www.kremlin.ru
By GAYANE ABRAHAMYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who first was expected to pay a
visit to Armenia last September, was again said to contemplate his
trip to the allied South Caucasus countries in mid-January. But
judging by the panic that has started in the Russian elite because of
the frozen accounts at Swiss banks, his visit is likely to be
postponed again.
Unofficial sources had said Putin could visit Armenia on January
13-14, but so far no official confirmation of those plans has been
made either in Moscow or in Yerevan. According to several news
agencies in Russia, the main concern of Putin during these days is the
huge sums of money frozen on Swiss bank accounts in the aftermath of
the Magnitsky Bill in the United States and the ban on adoption in
Russia for U.S. citizens introduced by Moscow in retaliation to this
new American legislation.
On January 9, the Swiss Federal Prosecutor's Office "froze" bank
accounts of Russian citizens included in the so-called Magnitsky list.
The matter concerns millions of U.S. dollars.
In 2009, lawyer and auditor Sergei Magnitsky died in a Moscow prison
after exposing massive fraud involving Russian tax officials. In 2012,
the United States adopted the Magnitsky Bill with the main intention
to punish Russian officials who were thought to be responsible for the
lawyer's death by prohibiting their entrance to the United States and
use of their banking system. The signing of the law by President
Barrack Obama in December drew an angry reaction in Russia that
initiated its own legislation - a so-called Dima Yakovlev Act to ban
adoption of Russian children by American citizens.
Putin's visit is put on hold, but efforts on integration as part of
the nascent Eurasian Union and the Customs Union seem to be continuing
among ruling political forces of several former Soviet states,
including Armenia.
A protocol regarding such cooperation was signed in St. Petersburg,
Russia, on December 3 during an international forum called "Eurasian
Integration in the 21st Century" also attended by representatives of
the ruling parties of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
After the signing of this protocol reports spread in Armenia that "the
Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is leading the country to the
Eurasian Union." But the Republicans denied that, saying that it is
"not a serious document", at the same time confirming, however, that
they were ready to sign a memorandum on Eurasian integration at the
beginning of 2013.
RPA lawmaker, chairman of the National Assembly's Standing Foreign
Relations Committee Artak Zakaryan explains that this memorandum
simply confirms that "the parties are willing to continue to work
around issues of Eurasian integration."
"These are inter-party consultations regarding general Eurasian
integration in different areas, and not on the Eurasian Union, and we
can never be against general integration as it would only be useful
for our country both economically and politically. Besides, these are
only meetings at an inter-party level," Zakaryan told ArmeniaNow.
While the RPA presents these inter-party meetings as "mere
consultations", Russian State Duma Deputy Speaker Sergei Zheleznyak,
in an interview with the website of Russia's ruling Yedinaya Rossiya
party stressed that "the ruling parties bear responsibility for the
integration processes leading to the establishment of the Eurasian
Union."
Despite the tense situation in Russia in view of its relations with
the United States, the Damoclean sword in the form of the European
Union still appears to be very much hanging over Armenia, which also
imperils the country's further integration with the European Union.
Armenia is a facing a major watershed - Europe or Russia. Ahead of
next month's presidential election Armenia's incumbent President Serzh
Sargsyan has to leave both sides satisfied to count on another
five-year term as head of state. While the European direction opens
the prospect of economic prosperity, in case of correct use of
European funds, then there are only few economic expectations from the
Russian direction that basically come down to the price of natural
gas.
Last autumn was marked by the abundance of all sorts of statements
deemed as humiliating for Armenia made at different levels in Russia.
In October, pro-Kremlin pundit Mikhail Leontyev suggested in an
article that Armenia is what it is today only due to Russia. He
directly cast doubts over Armenia's sovereignty, saying that "if it
were not for Russia, Armenia would probably not exist on the map
today. Armenia continues to exist only due to Russia," stressed
Leontyev, who is widely known for his program on a leading Russian TV
channel in which he comments on different political events and world
affairs.
In December, the Eurasian Economic Commission Board Chairman Victor
Khristenko compared Armenia to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad,
arguing that having no border with Russia or other members of the
Customs Union (now also including Belarus and Kazakhstan) would not be
a problem for integration. It brought to mind the infamous comment
made several years ago by the then speaker of the Russian State Duma,
Boris Gryzlov, who called Armenia "Russia's outpost", drawing strong
reaction from mainly opposition circles of Armenia then.
While Armenia's officials repeatedly state that Eurasian integration
does not hinder European integration, late last year several EU
officials voiced concerns in this regard.
In particular, EU Ambassador Traian Hristea stated last year Armenia
must make a choice between the EU and EurAsEC, as it can run counter
to the policy of rapprochement with the European Union.
EU Advisory Group (EUAG) to the Republic of Armenia Team Leader Willem
van der Geest expressed the same opinion.
More clear explanations in this regard were finally made by spokesman
for the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy Maja Kocijancic. In an interview with RFE/RL's
Armenian Service the spokesperson, representing the official views of
the European Union, said that Armenia's conclusion of free trade
agreements with third countries did not contradict the negotiations
around the creation of a deep and comprehensive free trade area
(DCFTA) with the EU. However, according to her, the issue here
concerns mainly customs unions: "If Armenia decides to join any
customs union, it would become incompatible with the bilateral
agreement concluded between the EU and Armenia on the establishment of
a deep and comprehensive free trade area. The thing is that a customs
union has a common trade policy, and individual countries belonging to
the union are no longer sovereign in their foreign trade policy."
These messages took a more serious tone when U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton made a related statement in early December.
Clinton made the statement about this attempt to "re-sovietize" the
former USSR space at a meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council in
Dublin, Ireland.
"It's not going to be called that [USSR]. It's going to be called
customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that," she
said, referring to Russian-led efforts for greater regional
integration. "But let's make no mistake about it. We know what the
goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or
prevent it."
This, however, had little effect on the Armenian leadership. Shortly
after that statement President Serzh Sargsyan attended the
presentation of a book authored by staunchly pro-Russian politician
Artashes Geghamyan entitled "The Eurasian Union is a Future Path for
Independent Armenia." (Geghamyan is a member of the RPA faction in
parliament).
These latest developments calling for clear decisions have led some
political observers in Armenia to believe that the so-called
"complementary" foreign policy conducted since the mid-1990s policy
has exhausted itself and now it is time to get the clear orientation.
Meanwhile, for a small country like Armenia, which has lots of
problems and authorities whose legitimacy is in question this appears
an almost unsolvable problem.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/42470/armenia_putin_visit_eurasian_union
ANALYSIS | 11.01.13 | 14:35
Photo: www.kremlin.ru
By GAYANE ABRAHAMYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who first was expected to pay a
visit to Armenia last September, was again said to contemplate his
trip to the allied South Caucasus countries in mid-January. But
judging by the panic that has started in the Russian elite because of
the frozen accounts at Swiss banks, his visit is likely to be
postponed again.
Unofficial sources had said Putin could visit Armenia on January
13-14, but so far no official confirmation of those plans has been
made either in Moscow or in Yerevan. According to several news
agencies in Russia, the main concern of Putin during these days is the
huge sums of money frozen on Swiss bank accounts in the aftermath of
the Magnitsky Bill in the United States and the ban on adoption in
Russia for U.S. citizens introduced by Moscow in retaliation to this
new American legislation.
On January 9, the Swiss Federal Prosecutor's Office "froze" bank
accounts of Russian citizens included in the so-called Magnitsky list.
The matter concerns millions of U.S. dollars.
In 2009, lawyer and auditor Sergei Magnitsky died in a Moscow prison
after exposing massive fraud involving Russian tax officials. In 2012,
the United States adopted the Magnitsky Bill with the main intention
to punish Russian officials who were thought to be responsible for the
lawyer's death by prohibiting their entrance to the United States and
use of their banking system. The signing of the law by President
Barrack Obama in December drew an angry reaction in Russia that
initiated its own legislation - a so-called Dima Yakovlev Act to ban
adoption of Russian children by American citizens.
Putin's visit is put on hold, but efforts on integration as part of
the nascent Eurasian Union and the Customs Union seem to be continuing
among ruling political forces of several former Soviet states,
including Armenia.
A protocol regarding such cooperation was signed in St. Petersburg,
Russia, on December 3 during an international forum called "Eurasian
Integration in the 21st Century" also attended by representatives of
the ruling parties of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
After the signing of this protocol reports spread in Armenia that "the
Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is leading the country to the
Eurasian Union." But the Republicans denied that, saying that it is
"not a serious document", at the same time confirming, however, that
they were ready to sign a memorandum on Eurasian integration at the
beginning of 2013.
RPA lawmaker, chairman of the National Assembly's Standing Foreign
Relations Committee Artak Zakaryan explains that this memorandum
simply confirms that "the parties are willing to continue to work
around issues of Eurasian integration."
"These are inter-party consultations regarding general Eurasian
integration in different areas, and not on the Eurasian Union, and we
can never be against general integration as it would only be useful
for our country both economically and politically. Besides, these are
only meetings at an inter-party level," Zakaryan told ArmeniaNow.
While the RPA presents these inter-party meetings as "mere
consultations", Russian State Duma Deputy Speaker Sergei Zheleznyak,
in an interview with the website of Russia's ruling Yedinaya Rossiya
party stressed that "the ruling parties bear responsibility for the
integration processes leading to the establishment of the Eurasian
Union."
Despite the tense situation in Russia in view of its relations with
the United States, the Damoclean sword in the form of the European
Union still appears to be very much hanging over Armenia, which also
imperils the country's further integration with the European Union.
Armenia is a facing a major watershed - Europe or Russia. Ahead of
next month's presidential election Armenia's incumbent President Serzh
Sargsyan has to leave both sides satisfied to count on another
five-year term as head of state. While the European direction opens
the prospect of economic prosperity, in case of correct use of
European funds, then there are only few economic expectations from the
Russian direction that basically come down to the price of natural
gas.
Last autumn was marked by the abundance of all sorts of statements
deemed as humiliating for Armenia made at different levels in Russia.
In October, pro-Kremlin pundit Mikhail Leontyev suggested in an
article that Armenia is what it is today only due to Russia. He
directly cast doubts over Armenia's sovereignty, saying that "if it
were not for Russia, Armenia would probably not exist on the map
today. Armenia continues to exist only due to Russia," stressed
Leontyev, who is widely known for his program on a leading Russian TV
channel in which he comments on different political events and world
affairs.
In December, the Eurasian Economic Commission Board Chairman Victor
Khristenko compared Armenia to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad,
arguing that having no border with Russia or other members of the
Customs Union (now also including Belarus and Kazakhstan) would not be
a problem for integration. It brought to mind the infamous comment
made several years ago by the then speaker of the Russian State Duma,
Boris Gryzlov, who called Armenia "Russia's outpost", drawing strong
reaction from mainly opposition circles of Armenia then.
While Armenia's officials repeatedly state that Eurasian integration
does not hinder European integration, late last year several EU
officials voiced concerns in this regard.
In particular, EU Ambassador Traian Hristea stated last year Armenia
must make a choice between the EU and EurAsEC, as it can run counter
to the policy of rapprochement with the European Union.
EU Advisory Group (EUAG) to the Republic of Armenia Team Leader Willem
van der Geest expressed the same opinion.
More clear explanations in this regard were finally made by spokesman
for the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy Maja Kocijancic. In an interview with RFE/RL's
Armenian Service the spokesperson, representing the official views of
the European Union, said that Armenia's conclusion of free trade
agreements with third countries did not contradict the negotiations
around the creation of a deep and comprehensive free trade area
(DCFTA) with the EU. However, according to her, the issue here
concerns mainly customs unions: "If Armenia decides to join any
customs union, it would become incompatible with the bilateral
agreement concluded between the EU and Armenia on the establishment of
a deep and comprehensive free trade area. The thing is that a customs
union has a common trade policy, and individual countries belonging to
the union are no longer sovereign in their foreign trade policy."
These messages took a more serious tone when U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton made a related statement in early December.
Clinton made the statement about this attempt to "re-sovietize" the
former USSR space at a meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council in
Dublin, Ireland.
"It's not going to be called that [USSR]. It's going to be called
customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that," she
said, referring to Russian-led efforts for greater regional
integration. "But let's make no mistake about it. We know what the
goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or
prevent it."
This, however, had little effect on the Armenian leadership. Shortly
after that statement President Serzh Sargsyan attended the
presentation of a book authored by staunchly pro-Russian politician
Artashes Geghamyan entitled "The Eurasian Union is a Future Path for
Independent Armenia." (Geghamyan is a member of the RPA faction in
parliament).
These latest developments calling for clear decisions have led some
political observers in Armenia to believe that the so-called
"complementary" foreign policy conducted since the mid-1990s policy
has exhausted itself and now it is time to get the clear orientation.
Meanwhile, for a small country like Armenia, which has lots of
problems and authorities whose legitimacy is in question this appears
an almost unsolvable problem.