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Cihan News Agency (CNA) - Turkey
January 13, 2013 Sunday
Turkey braces itself against proxy wars in 2013
ISTANBUL (CIHAN)- Turkey, whose relations with Tehran have been
strained recently, should brace itself against the many proxies which
are under Iran's control and may adversely affect Turkish interests in
the region.
Experts warn that 2013 will be a year in which Iran will play all its
cards and wage proxy battles against Turkey, which is already facing a
number of challenges from its neighbors in the Shiite bloc, namely
Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Gökhan Bacik, an academic lecturing in international relations at
Gaziantep's Zirve University, told Sunday's Zaman that there were many
proxies under Iran's control that it may use against Turkey.
"In the Middle East, Shiite networks or, in other words, Iranian
networks, are very strong. Proxy wars in this region are based on
religious and sectarian groups. Iran uses these groups as trump cards
against many countries, including Turkey; however, Turkey is quite
weak in proxy wars due to its lack of experience," said Bacik.
Mehmet Sahin, who teaches international relations at Gazi University
in Ankara, warns that Tehran may wage a defamation campaign against
Turkey in the coming period.
"Not only by making harsh statements, Iran may also conduct campaigns,
including supporting the terrorist PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party], to
weaken Turkey's regional role," said Sahin.
Turkey's diplomatic relations with Iran have been strained due to the
two countries' differing stances on the Syrian crisis, with recent
comments made by the Iranian chief of General Staff indicating that
"it will be Turkey's turn" if Turkey continues to "help advance the
warmongering policies of the US in Syria," which triggered a harsh
reaction from Ankara.
That statement in itself is not the sole reason for the soured ties.
There have been increasing suspicions that Iran has lent support to
PKK terrorists. The killing of six Turkish soldiers and two village
guards near the Iranian border by PKK terrorists early in August
increased the level of criticism against Iran. The belief that the
terrorists executed the attack after sneaking over from Iran has drawn
an even stronger reaction.
"Iran is supporting the terrorism in Turkey and using the PKK as a
proxy against Turkey," Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, head of Ankara's Center
for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM), told Sunday's
Zaman.
Turkish Interior Minister Idris Naim Sahin recently accused
neighboring Iran of sheltering members of the PKK in its territory
while giving militants free rein to operate against Turkey from within
Iran without restriction.
Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon -- both Iranian proxies against Turkey
Turkey and Iran have improved their ties in recent years, but
conflicting policies regarding Syria -- one of Iran's last Shiite
allies in the region -- strained Turkish-Iranian relations.
A series of unusually sharp statements from both Turkey and Iran have
brought relations between the two neighbors to what one could call a
historic low. Turkey is the staunchest supporter of the Syrian
opposition that is attempting to topple embattled President Bashar
al-Assad, while Iran stands by its ally, Syria.
"Iran aims to use Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon as proxies
against Turkey," said Sahin, adding that Iran will do its utmost to
weaken Turkey's regional role.
The downfall of Assad's regime in Syria is expected to deal a deadly
blow to the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah axis. Iranian politics have been
quite influential in Syria and Lebanon, especially through Hezbollah.
The Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon will have much greater
difficulty obtaining Iranian military and financial support, while
Iran will be disconnected from a valuable ally in Lebanon.
According to experts, the alliance between the Assad regime in Syria,
the [Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-] Maliki government in Iraq,
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the mullah regime in Iran are closing in on
Turkey.
Sahin believes that Iraq is the other proxy under Iran's control that
it may use against Turkey. "As long as Maliki, who is currently at
odds with Turkey, stays in power in Iraq, Iran will continue to exert
its influence on Iraq which would be detrimental to Turkey's
interests," said Sahin.
Turkish relations with the Iraqi Shiite-led government were strained
as a result of various factors, including the Syrian crisis, which is
the main point of contention between the two nations. Iraq, which has
close ties to Assad's ally Iran, is hesitant to take a stance
regarding the Syrian conflict.
According to experts, the strained relations between the two countries
have played into the hands of Iran.
"As the rift between Turkey and Iran deepens, Iran will concentrate on
activating the ethnic and sectarian fault lines in Turkey. Syria is
the first front where Turkish-Iranian interests conflict. The second
is the Iraqi front," said Erol.
Iran may use Alawites as proxy against Turkey
Turkey's relations with its three neighbors, Syria, Iran and Iraq, are
deteriorating because of sectarian fault lines, despite Turkey's
maneuvers to avoid a Sunni-Shiite division.
"Iran may use the Alawites in Turkey as a proxy against Turkey," said Erol.
Groups affiliated with Iran have reportedly conducted activities in
the southern province of Hatay on Syria's border, recruiting Alawite
youths into its ranks in order to create tension in Turkey's border
provinces, as well as provide manpower to Assad's army.
Additionally, the revelation of an Iranian spy ring in Turkey's
eastern province of Igdir, which borders Iran, was the other blow to a
deepening crisis of confidence in Turkey regarding the Iranian regime.
According to Erol, Iran has engaged in intense intelligence-gathering
operations in Turkey. "Not only was Iran trying to get military
intelligence but it is also focusing on Turkey's weak points," said
Erol.
Mehmet Sahin believes that there are several groups in Turkey which
sympathize with Iran, and that Iran might use these groups as a proxy
against Turkey.
"We call these groups 'Iranians among us'." These groups can be
divided into three factions: the first is the neo-nationalist group,
the second is the religious groups and the third is the pro-MHP
[Nationalist Movement Party] group," said Sahin, adding that the point
of convergence of these groups was anti-Westernism and that Iran is
exploiting this point to exert pressure on Turkey, which has close
ties with the Western world.
"Iran is quite successful in using the media outlets in Turkey to
publish news that may disturb the Turkish public, whereas it is almost
impossible for Turkey to do the same in Iran," said Sahin.
Experts believe that Iran may also use its close relations with
Armenia, which is at odds with Turkey, as a proxy against Turkey. "The
relationship between Armenia and Iran is very critical," said Sahin.
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with
Azerbaijan after the Armenian Armed Forces occupied 20 percent of
Azerbaijan in 1992, including Nagorno-Karabakh. While Turkey sides
with Azerbaijan on this issue, Iran supports Armenia and continues to
strengthen its ties with this nation.
January 13, 2013 Sunday
Turkey braces itself against proxy wars in 2013
ISTANBUL (CIHAN)- Turkey, whose relations with Tehran have been
strained recently, should brace itself against the many proxies which
are under Iran's control and may adversely affect Turkish interests in
the region.
Experts warn that 2013 will be a year in which Iran will play all its
cards and wage proxy battles against Turkey, which is already facing a
number of challenges from its neighbors in the Shiite bloc, namely
Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Gökhan Bacik, an academic lecturing in international relations at
Gaziantep's Zirve University, told Sunday's Zaman that there were many
proxies under Iran's control that it may use against Turkey.
"In the Middle East, Shiite networks or, in other words, Iranian
networks, are very strong. Proxy wars in this region are based on
religious and sectarian groups. Iran uses these groups as trump cards
against many countries, including Turkey; however, Turkey is quite
weak in proxy wars due to its lack of experience," said Bacik.
Mehmet Sahin, who teaches international relations at Gazi University
in Ankara, warns that Tehran may wage a defamation campaign against
Turkey in the coming period.
"Not only by making harsh statements, Iran may also conduct campaigns,
including supporting the terrorist PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party], to
weaken Turkey's regional role," said Sahin.
Turkey's diplomatic relations with Iran have been strained due to the
two countries' differing stances on the Syrian crisis, with recent
comments made by the Iranian chief of General Staff indicating that
"it will be Turkey's turn" if Turkey continues to "help advance the
warmongering policies of the US in Syria," which triggered a harsh
reaction from Ankara.
That statement in itself is not the sole reason for the soured ties.
There have been increasing suspicions that Iran has lent support to
PKK terrorists. The killing of six Turkish soldiers and two village
guards near the Iranian border by PKK terrorists early in August
increased the level of criticism against Iran. The belief that the
terrorists executed the attack after sneaking over from Iran has drawn
an even stronger reaction.
"Iran is supporting the terrorism in Turkey and using the PKK as a
proxy against Turkey," Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, head of Ankara's Center
for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM), told Sunday's
Zaman.
Turkish Interior Minister Idris Naim Sahin recently accused
neighboring Iran of sheltering members of the PKK in its territory
while giving militants free rein to operate against Turkey from within
Iran without restriction.
Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon -- both Iranian proxies against Turkey
Turkey and Iran have improved their ties in recent years, but
conflicting policies regarding Syria -- one of Iran's last Shiite
allies in the region -- strained Turkish-Iranian relations.
A series of unusually sharp statements from both Turkey and Iran have
brought relations between the two neighbors to what one could call a
historic low. Turkey is the staunchest supporter of the Syrian
opposition that is attempting to topple embattled President Bashar
al-Assad, while Iran stands by its ally, Syria.
"Iran aims to use Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon as proxies
against Turkey," said Sahin, adding that Iran will do its utmost to
weaken Turkey's regional role.
The downfall of Assad's regime in Syria is expected to deal a deadly
blow to the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah axis. Iranian politics have been
quite influential in Syria and Lebanon, especially through Hezbollah.
The Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon will have much greater
difficulty obtaining Iranian military and financial support, while
Iran will be disconnected from a valuable ally in Lebanon.
According to experts, the alliance between the Assad regime in Syria,
the [Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-] Maliki government in Iraq,
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the mullah regime in Iran are closing in on
Turkey.
Sahin believes that Iraq is the other proxy under Iran's control that
it may use against Turkey. "As long as Maliki, who is currently at
odds with Turkey, stays in power in Iraq, Iran will continue to exert
its influence on Iraq which would be detrimental to Turkey's
interests," said Sahin.
Turkish relations with the Iraqi Shiite-led government were strained
as a result of various factors, including the Syrian crisis, which is
the main point of contention between the two nations. Iraq, which has
close ties to Assad's ally Iran, is hesitant to take a stance
regarding the Syrian conflict.
According to experts, the strained relations between the two countries
have played into the hands of Iran.
"As the rift between Turkey and Iran deepens, Iran will concentrate on
activating the ethnic and sectarian fault lines in Turkey. Syria is
the first front where Turkish-Iranian interests conflict. The second
is the Iraqi front," said Erol.
Iran may use Alawites as proxy against Turkey
Turkey's relations with its three neighbors, Syria, Iran and Iraq, are
deteriorating because of sectarian fault lines, despite Turkey's
maneuvers to avoid a Sunni-Shiite division.
"Iran may use the Alawites in Turkey as a proxy against Turkey," said Erol.
Groups affiliated with Iran have reportedly conducted activities in
the southern province of Hatay on Syria's border, recruiting Alawite
youths into its ranks in order to create tension in Turkey's border
provinces, as well as provide manpower to Assad's army.
Additionally, the revelation of an Iranian spy ring in Turkey's
eastern province of Igdir, which borders Iran, was the other blow to a
deepening crisis of confidence in Turkey regarding the Iranian regime.
According to Erol, Iran has engaged in intense intelligence-gathering
operations in Turkey. "Not only was Iran trying to get military
intelligence but it is also focusing on Turkey's weak points," said
Erol.
Mehmet Sahin believes that there are several groups in Turkey which
sympathize with Iran, and that Iran might use these groups as a proxy
against Turkey.
"We call these groups 'Iranians among us'." These groups can be
divided into three factions: the first is the neo-nationalist group,
the second is the religious groups and the third is the pro-MHP
[Nationalist Movement Party] group," said Sahin, adding that the point
of convergence of these groups was anti-Westernism and that Iran is
exploiting this point to exert pressure on Turkey, which has close
ties with the Western world.
"Iran is quite successful in using the media outlets in Turkey to
publish news that may disturb the Turkish public, whereas it is almost
impossible for Turkey to do the same in Iran," said Sahin.
Experts believe that Iran may also use its close relations with
Armenia, which is at odds with Turkey, as a proxy against Turkey. "The
relationship between Armenia and Iran is very critical," said Sahin.
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with
Azerbaijan after the Armenian Armed Forces occupied 20 percent of
Azerbaijan in 1992, including Nagorno-Karabakh. While Turkey sides
with Azerbaijan on this issue, Iran supports Armenia and continues to
strengthen its ties with this nation.