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Mediamax, Armenia
Jan 15 2013
Former Armenian president Kocharyan interviewed on upcoming poll
[Mediamax] Mr. Kocharyan, the public expected you to take part in
presidential elections [on 18 February], but it did not happen. Why
did you decide so and how do you assess the current political
situation in the country?
[Kocharyan] The political situation is so dull that the only reason
for this interview is my promise to give it. Of course, I know that
there were some expectations of my possible participation in upcoming
elections. Although I have never spoken of my intention to participate
in elections, anyhow I deem it necessary to give some explanations. I
would single out three circumstances which forced me to refrain from
returning to active politics.
First: the fight for power between two natives of Karabakh, long-time
companions, was unacceptable for me. It would make it difficult for
many people to make a choice and would become a topic for various
speculations. Besides, I myself have chosen the incumbent president
[Serzh Sargsyan] as a successor, and his desire to run for the second
term is understandable.
Second: I would not like to participate in the formation of a format
of three presidents fighting for power [another former president,
Levon Ter-Petrosyan had also considered standing but opted not to],
which is extremely unpleasant, and I believe very harmful for the
country.
Third: the search for a political compromise in Armenia has
transformed into small-retail political bargaining. This is not what I
would like to spend my time, knowledge and experience on.
These factors are certainly not fundamental, but I think they are very
weighty from emotional and ethic points of view. This is why I gave
brief interviews and only in cases when it would be simply impossible
not to react to the situation.
[Mediamax] And what about fundamental factors? In your previous
interviews you spoke about such factors as the migration, the economic
situation and political competition. How would you assess today's
situation?
[Kocharyan] The fundamental factors unfortunately do not inspire
optimism as before. The population outflow from Armenia does not
reduce, and this is not a labour migration. The tendency is extremely
dangerous given a low birth rate and aging population. It is not
accidental that migration is called country's health cardiogram.
The economy began to grow, but will it be a steady growth with
decreasing investments, and how much will it be conditioned by
increasing debt commitments? Even with an expected GDP growth of 7 per
cent in 2012 we will not reach the level of 2008 in comparable figures
(98 per cent), with over a three-fold increase in the ratio of public
debt to GDP (with the deteriorating structure of the debt). By the
way, the restoration of railway communication through Abkhazia, which
is quite possible after recent transformations in Georgia, could be a
serious positive stimulus for our economy.
As for the political competition, it became like a puppet show ahead
of elections, which cannot contribute to the effective work of
authorities and generates apathy in the society. It is well known that
without competition the authorities sleep peacefully but people, as a
rule, live badly.
It is extremely difficult to reverse these trends by measured efforts
of the government. They need something more, a mobilizing society
which would inspire hope and impel to act. I hope the authorities will
meet these challenges.
From: Baghdasarian
Jan 15 2013
Former Armenian president Kocharyan interviewed on upcoming poll
[Mediamax] Mr. Kocharyan, the public expected you to take part in
presidential elections [on 18 February], but it did not happen. Why
did you decide so and how do you assess the current political
situation in the country?
[Kocharyan] The political situation is so dull that the only reason
for this interview is my promise to give it. Of course, I know that
there were some expectations of my possible participation in upcoming
elections. Although I have never spoken of my intention to participate
in elections, anyhow I deem it necessary to give some explanations. I
would single out three circumstances which forced me to refrain from
returning to active politics.
First: the fight for power between two natives of Karabakh, long-time
companions, was unacceptable for me. It would make it difficult for
many people to make a choice and would become a topic for various
speculations. Besides, I myself have chosen the incumbent president
[Serzh Sargsyan] as a successor, and his desire to run for the second
term is understandable.
Second: I would not like to participate in the formation of a format
of three presidents fighting for power [another former president,
Levon Ter-Petrosyan had also considered standing but opted not to],
which is extremely unpleasant, and I believe very harmful for the
country.
Third: the search for a political compromise in Armenia has
transformed into small-retail political bargaining. This is not what I
would like to spend my time, knowledge and experience on.
These factors are certainly not fundamental, but I think they are very
weighty from emotional and ethic points of view. This is why I gave
brief interviews and only in cases when it would be simply impossible
not to react to the situation.
[Mediamax] And what about fundamental factors? In your previous
interviews you spoke about such factors as the migration, the economic
situation and political competition. How would you assess today's
situation?
[Kocharyan] The fundamental factors unfortunately do not inspire
optimism as before. The population outflow from Armenia does not
reduce, and this is not a labour migration. The tendency is extremely
dangerous given a low birth rate and aging population. It is not
accidental that migration is called country's health cardiogram.
The economy began to grow, but will it be a steady growth with
decreasing investments, and how much will it be conditioned by
increasing debt commitments? Even with an expected GDP growth of 7 per
cent in 2012 we will not reach the level of 2008 in comparable figures
(98 per cent), with over a three-fold increase in the ratio of public
debt to GDP (with the deteriorating structure of the debt). By the
way, the restoration of railway communication through Abkhazia, which
is quite possible after recent transformations in Georgia, could be a
serious positive stimulus for our economy.
As for the political competition, it became like a puppet show ahead
of elections, which cannot contribute to the effective work of
authorities and generates apathy in the society. It is well known that
without competition the authorities sleep peacefully but people, as a
rule, live badly.
It is extremely difficult to reverse these trends by measured efforts
of the government. They need something more, a mobilizing society
which would inspire hope and impel to act. I hope the authorities will
meet these challenges.
From: Baghdasarian