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CONFIDENCE TO BE FOLLOWED BY FRAGMENTATION OF GOVERNMENT
Levon Margaryan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28753
12:39 30/01/2013
During his campaign Serzh Sargsyan has made two blunders. The first
was on Army Day, in Yerablur, the cemetery of soldiers killed in
Karabakh war. He told a woman who came up to her to complain of her
social problems not to spoil the celebration. The second was in Lori
where he told a farmer it was their fault why "their cucumbers are
crooked". The farmer complained that his children had to emigrate
because they could not earn their living at home.
How come Serzh Sargsyan who makes organized and saturated texts at
conferences is unable to follow up the principles he declares himself?
Even though the upcoming elections are said to be fertile soil for the
introduction of political ideas, their circulation and implementation,
one thing is clear - the government with its economic and political
resource has no rival who would cause it the slightest disturbance
in this election. Theoretically, there is such inconvenience which
will continue as long as the government faces a crisis of legitimacy.
It is too early for the Republicans and Serzh Sargsyan to become
confident. They would not be so confident in two situations - if
Gagik Tsarukyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan ran in the election. Then the
nicely-written conference texts would be followed up by nicely-written
campaign texts.
It is hard to blame anyone. However, small troubles indicate a bigger
problem in the government. There is no opposition or alternative to
the government. Hrant Bagratyan and Raffi Hovannisian may receive
some votes, win over a certain audience, introduce new discourse but
only theoretically. Practically, it is very difficult to defeat an
overcentralized government through guerilla wars, at least now.
The problem is that most political parties which are out of the
electoral process now have been incapable of sufficient party
activities which would ensure their systemic participation. The
political opposition consolidated ahead of the election, boosted
pressure after the election and left to rest. No intermediate and long,
sometimes annoying party activities, involvement of new resources
and capital and informal campaign took place.
The RPA's campaign is permanent because it is government and always
needs to involve new resources independent from anything. The
government has immense financial and state resources for that. The
opposition can do it only by being more innovative than the
government. The government will not share state and financial resources
with the opposition, especially with the one we have. So the only
thing the opposition can do is to be more innovative and organized.
There is already a basis for new ideas and innovation in the
opposition. It is hard to tell to what extent this process will
progress, the process has just started.
On the other hand, the solitude of the government has both positive
and negative aspects.
The negative aspect is what we now see - almost one hundred percent
proud confidence in victory. The positive aspect is the fragmentation
of the government due to this state of play. The most visible process
after February will be the government's fragmentation. Moreover,
fragmentation has been delayed since 2008. The government has grabbed
the entire economic and political capital, the next step will be
distinction and socialization of the capital. There is no other way of
sustainability of development or processes. Currently these processes
are delayed due to the election and participation of Serzh Sargsyan
in the election as the only factor which keeps the government together.
After Serzh Sargsyan's election this delayed and predicted process
will start. So, the short period of confidence of Serzh Sargsyan will
end soon, and the team will be fragmented and torn, and it will be
necessary to identify, control and coordinate the complicated game.
Levon Margaryan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28753
12:39 30/01/2013
During his campaign Serzh Sargsyan has made two blunders. The first
was on Army Day, in Yerablur, the cemetery of soldiers killed in
Karabakh war. He told a woman who came up to her to complain of her
social problems not to spoil the celebration. The second was in Lori
where he told a farmer it was their fault why "their cucumbers are
crooked". The farmer complained that his children had to emigrate
because they could not earn their living at home.
How come Serzh Sargsyan who makes organized and saturated texts at
conferences is unable to follow up the principles he declares himself?
Even though the upcoming elections are said to be fertile soil for the
introduction of political ideas, their circulation and implementation,
one thing is clear - the government with its economic and political
resource has no rival who would cause it the slightest disturbance
in this election. Theoretically, there is such inconvenience which
will continue as long as the government faces a crisis of legitimacy.
It is too early for the Republicans and Serzh Sargsyan to become
confident. They would not be so confident in two situations - if
Gagik Tsarukyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan ran in the election. Then the
nicely-written conference texts would be followed up by nicely-written
campaign texts.
It is hard to blame anyone. However, small troubles indicate a bigger
problem in the government. There is no opposition or alternative to
the government. Hrant Bagratyan and Raffi Hovannisian may receive
some votes, win over a certain audience, introduce new discourse but
only theoretically. Practically, it is very difficult to defeat an
overcentralized government through guerilla wars, at least now.
The problem is that most political parties which are out of the
electoral process now have been incapable of sufficient party
activities which would ensure their systemic participation. The
political opposition consolidated ahead of the election, boosted
pressure after the election and left to rest. No intermediate and long,
sometimes annoying party activities, involvement of new resources
and capital and informal campaign took place.
The RPA's campaign is permanent because it is government and always
needs to involve new resources independent from anything. The
government has immense financial and state resources for that. The
opposition can do it only by being more innovative than the
government. The government will not share state and financial resources
with the opposition, especially with the one we have. So the only
thing the opposition can do is to be more innovative and organized.
There is already a basis for new ideas and innovation in the
opposition. It is hard to tell to what extent this process will
progress, the process has just started.
On the other hand, the solitude of the government has both positive
and negative aspects.
The negative aspect is what we now see - almost one hundred percent
proud confidence in victory. The positive aspect is the fragmentation
of the government due to this state of play. The most visible process
after February will be the government's fragmentation. Moreover,
fragmentation has been delayed since 2008. The government has grabbed
the entire economic and political capital, the next step will be
distinction and socialization of the capital. There is no other way of
sustainability of development or processes. Currently these processes
are delayed due to the election and participation of Serzh Sargsyan
in the election as the only factor which keeps the government together.
After Serzh Sargsyan's election this delayed and predicted process
will start. So, the short period of confidence of Serzh Sargsyan will
end soon, and the team will be fragmented and torn, and it will be
necessary to identify, control and coordinate the complicated game.