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TINDERBOX NEXT DOOR: GROWING ETHNIC PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJAN MAY 'DETONATE' WAR AGAINST KARABAKH
http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/42913/armenia_azerbaijan_baku_violence_revolution
KARABAKH | 29.01.13 | 11:06
Photo: www.azerireport.com
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The wave of protests that struck Azerbaijan last week may become a
detonator of a military adventure in the South Caucasus.
The incident in the Ismayilli region of Azerbaijan reminded of the
Arab Spring scenarios, thinks head of the Analytical Center on
Globalization and Regional Cooperation, political analyst Stepan
Grigoryan. In the current situation, in his opinion, it is possible
that official Baku will try to direct popular discontent against
Karabakh and replace public discontent with nationalism.
"It is possible that the Azerbaijani side will try to escalate the
situation along the line of contact of the armed forces of
Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan," the analyst said.
Expert of the Center for Central Asia studies and Caucasus Institute
of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Areshev
also thinks that Azerbaijani authorities will see an increased
temptation to redirect the anger of the society towards Karabakh.
"The authorities will agitate patriotic feelings among people to shift
their attention from internal problems to the 'enemies', and in
Azerbaijan Armenians and Karabakh are considered to be these enemies,"
he said.
In the provincial capital of Ismayilli people angered by the rule of
the Alekperov clan (one of this family is the regional governor, the
other is a minister in the central government of Azerbaijan) burned a
car and a hotel owned by representatives of the clan. This caused a
wave of protests countrywide reaching capital Baku that saw activation
of civic initiatives and opposition parties.
It is noteworthy that this happened during the same days when in
Mexico City local authorities dismantled the monument to the late
father of the current president, ex-president of Azerbaijan Heydar
Aliyev. It became not only a major blow to the credibility of the
Aliyev regime, but also a sign that the West is not against
dismantling the Aliyev regime also in the oil-rich country.
Autumn in Azerbaijan will see presidential elections and it is not
excluded that this time the West and the local opposition will be able
to change the regime with which it is difficult to work even for oil
companies. Last year was marked by a conflict between Aliyev and
British Petroleum, which is the main investor in the oil sector of
Azerbaijan. It was stated that oil reserves were running out in the
country, and it again became a blow to the regime.
Remarkably, on January 27 the police did not allow the leader of the
main opposition party, Musavat, Isa Gambar to enter the city of
Lankaran in the south of Azerbaijan. Two weeks ago, a Gambar motorcade
was also attacked at the entrance to Lankaran by people allegedly
trained for the purpose by the authorities.
Lankaran is a Lezghian-populated region of Azerbaijan, just like Guba
and Ismayilli, where the protest events took place. Experts say the
reactivation of the Lezghian national movement in Azerbaijan is what
bothers the Aliyev regime most. And if national movements of the
Lezghians and Talyshes, which are Iranian peoples who appeared inside
a Turkic Azerbaijan in 1918, gains momentum, it could lead as well to
the collapse of the Azerbaijani state. It is this very threat that may
make Aliyev embark on a military gambling in Karabakh by unleashing a
war against the de-facto independent republic. A few days ago
information appeared in the media that Azerbaijan had purchased T-300
Qasirqa missile systems from Turkey. These missiles are designed to
destroy enemy targets at a range of more than 100 kilometers.
South Caucasus geopolitics expert Anzhela Elibegova, referring to the
factors of internal policy in Azerbaijan, also mentions the Kurdish
issue. "The Azerbaijani opposition media write regularly that Kurds in
Azerbaijan enjoy 'special' rights. In Nakhichevan, the conventional
homeland of Heydar Aliyev, the majority of the population today are
Kurds, but during the years of the Aliyev rule they have settled
around on lands historically inhabited by the Talyshes and Lezgins,"
said Elibegova.
For his part, the American commentator on ethnic and religious
conflicts, James Dorsey, said that the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan,
is not immune to shocks such as those that have hit the Middle East
and North Africa of late.
http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/42913/armenia_azerbaijan_baku_violence_revolution
KARABAKH | 29.01.13 | 11:06
Photo: www.azerireport.com
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The wave of protests that struck Azerbaijan last week may become a
detonator of a military adventure in the South Caucasus.
The incident in the Ismayilli region of Azerbaijan reminded of the
Arab Spring scenarios, thinks head of the Analytical Center on
Globalization and Regional Cooperation, political analyst Stepan
Grigoryan. In the current situation, in his opinion, it is possible
that official Baku will try to direct popular discontent against
Karabakh and replace public discontent with nationalism.
"It is possible that the Azerbaijani side will try to escalate the
situation along the line of contact of the armed forces of
Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan," the analyst said.
Expert of the Center for Central Asia studies and Caucasus Institute
of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Areshev
also thinks that Azerbaijani authorities will see an increased
temptation to redirect the anger of the society towards Karabakh.
"The authorities will agitate patriotic feelings among people to shift
their attention from internal problems to the 'enemies', and in
Azerbaijan Armenians and Karabakh are considered to be these enemies,"
he said.
In the provincial capital of Ismayilli people angered by the rule of
the Alekperov clan (one of this family is the regional governor, the
other is a minister in the central government of Azerbaijan) burned a
car and a hotel owned by representatives of the clan. This caused a
wave of protests countrywide reaching capital Baku that saw activation
of civic initiatives and opposition parties.
It is noteworthy that this happened during the same days when in
Mexico City local authorities dismantled the monument to the late
father of the current president, ex-president of Azerbaijan Heydar
Aliyev. It became not only a major blow to the credibility of the
Aliyev regime, but also a sign that the West is not against
dismantling the Aliyev regime also in the oil-rich country.
Autumn in Azerbaijan will see presidential elections and it is not
excluded that this time the West and the local opposition will be able
to change the regime with which it is difficult to work even for oil
companies. Last year was marked by a conflict between Aliyev and
British Petroleum, which is the main investor in the oil sector of
Azerbaijan. It was stated that oil reserves were running out in the
country, and it again became a blow to the regime.
Remarkably, on January 27 the police did not allow the leader of the
main opposition party, Musavat, Isa Gambar to enter the city of
Lankaran in the south of Azerbaijan. Two weeks ago, a Gambar motorcade
was also attacked at the entrance to Lankaran by people allegedly
trained for the purpose by the authorities.
Lankaran is a Lezghian-populated region of Azerbaijan, just like Guba
and Ismayilli, where the protest events took place. Experts say the
reactivation of the Lezghian national movement in Azerbaijan is what
bothers the Aliyev regime most. And if national movements of the
Lezghians and Talyshes, which are Iranian peoples who appeared inside
a Turkic Azerbaijan in 1918, gains momentum, it could lead as well to
the collapse of the Azerbaijani state. It is this very threat that may
make Aliyev embark on a military gambling in Karabakh by unleashing a
war against the de-facto independent republic. A few days ago
information appeared in the media that Azerbaijan had purchased T-300
Qasirqa missile systems from Turkey. These missiles are designed to
destroy enemy targets at a range of more than 100 kilometers.
South Caucasus geopolitics expert Anzhela Elibegova, referring to the
factors of internal policy in Azerbaijan, also mentions the Kurdish
issue. "The Azerbaijani opposition media write regularly that Kurds in
Azerbaijan enjoy 'special' rights. In Nakhichevan, the conventional
homeland of Heydar Aliyev, the majority of the population today are
Kurds, but during the years of the Aliyev rule they have settled
around on lands historically inhabited by the Talyshes and Lezgins,"
said Elibegova.
For his part, the American commentator on ethnic and religious
conflicts, James Dorsey, said that the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan,
is not immune to shocks such as those that have hit the Middle East
and North Africa of late.