Tweet
DO RUSSIANS WANT A WAR?
To keep it short, yes, they want it everywhere. After long thoughts
the Russian politicians have arrived at the conclusion that there is
no need to fear a war if someone else is fighting. The war in Libya
demonstrated that any empire will become an outsider in international
politics if it settles down. The war in Syria was a chance for Russia
to become a more important subject in global politics, not return of
the Near East (it will not succeed).
Whether the Russians understand this or not, their success in Syria is
determined by the high level of interest of Americans and Europeans
in Russia's participation in this regional game where Russia acts as
Syria's defender while the West is categorically against the military
intervention in this country.
There is a paradox in this situation but this situation is encountered
often, especially in regional politics. However, one way or another,
the war in Syria was wanted by and riskless for Russia. By the way,
Russia bid for more in its action in Syria than Syria, including
hopes for reconciliation with Iran but one can already confirm that
the Russian policy on Iran has crashed. Defense of Syria by Russia
did not impress the Iranians who do not need Russian technologies
unlike 10 or 20 years ago, Iran has other partners, and Iran's chief
partner in future will be the United States.
However, now the South Caucasus is concerned, not Syria. A lot that
is happening in the South Caucasus, including the military supplies of
Russia to the countries of the region, can be explained by the absolute
interest of Russia in a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If
earlier the main factor of presence of interest of Russia in war was
possible deployment of NATO troops in the region, the examples of Libya
and Syria proved that NATO is not interested in such actions whereas
its member states will not do it without the official decision of NATO.
By the way, like in regard to Syria, NATO will limit its actions,
including due to reluctance to take part in this operation of Turkey.
NATO reckons similarly regarding operations in the South Caucasus.
What will war in the South Caucasus bring to Russia? First, there
will be a serious limitation to cooperation between NATO and the
countries of the region. Most probably, hopes for failure of certain
energy and communication projects.
Perhaps, Russia is hoping for limitation of the time and scale of this
war but is more than doubtful. It is also doubtful that NATO will not
come to the region because the South Caucasus is not Syria but an
absolutely different cluster of international political space. The
United States and Europe have never viewed the South Caucasus as
part of the Near East, and recent tendencies confirm the intentions
of the West relating to the region.
Russia is having no problems with initiation of a war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev's team sees the war as salvation of its
political, administrative and economic situation. There might be an
agreement between Russia and Turkey over this war with Israel taking
particular interest in it which still hopes that the war will affect
Iran as well.
In Armenia the Russian proteges have mobilized a miserable group of
political scientists who understand that nobody will pick up such
streetwalkers in Yerevan except the Russians who will dump them in
the street. However, the Russians do not care for public opinion
in Armenia. It is considered that the beginning of the war will not
depend on the wish of Armenia.
Igor Muradyan 15:30 03/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30351
To keep it short, yes, they want it everywhere. After long thoughts
the Russian politicians have arrived at the conclusion that there is
no need to fear a war if someone else is fighting. The war in Libya
demonstrated that any empire will become an outsider in international
politics if it settles down. The war in Syria was a chance for Russia
to become a more important subject in global politics, not return of
the Near East (it will not succeed).
Whether the Russians understand this or not, their success in Syria is
determined by the high level of interest of Americans and Europeans
in Russia's participation in this regional game where Russia acts as
Syria's defender while the West is categorically against the military
intervention in this country.
There is a paradox in this situation but this situation is encountered
often, especially in regional politics. However, one way or another,
the war in Syria was wanted by and riskless for Russia. By the way,
Russia bid for more in its action in Syria than Syria, including
hopes for reconciliation with Iran but one can already confirm that
the Russian policy on Iran has crashed. Defense of Syria by Russia
did not impress the Iranians who do not need Russian technologies
unlike 10 or 20 years ago, Iran has other partners, and Iran's chief
partner in future will be the United States.
However, now the South Caucasus is concerned, not Syria. A lot that
is happening in the South Caucasus, including the military supplies of
Russia to the countries of the region, can be explained by the absolute
interest of Russia in a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If
earlier the main factor of presence of interest of Russia in war was
possible deployment of NATO troops in the region, the examples of Libya
and Syria proved that NATO is not interested in such actions whereas
its member states will not do it without the official decision of NATO.
By the way, like in regard to Syria, NATO will limit its actions,
including due to reluctance to take part in this operation of Turkey.
NATO reckons similarly regarding operations in the South Caucasus.
What will war in the South Caucasus bring to Russia? First, there
will be a serious limitation to cooperation between NATO and the
countries of the region. Most probably, hopes for failure of certain
energy and communication projects.
Perhaps, Russia is hoping for limitation of the time and scale of this
war but is more than doubtful. It is also doubtful that NATO will not
come to the region because the South Caucasus is not Syria but an
absolutely different cluster of international political space. The
United States and Europe have never viewed the South Caucasus as
part of the Near East, and recent tendencies confirm the intentions
of the West relating to the region.
Russia is having no problems with initiation of a war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev's team sees the war as salvation of its
political, administrative and economic situation. There might be an
agreement between Russia and Turkey over this war with Israel taking
particular interest in it which still hopes that the war will affect
Iran as well.
In Armenia the Russian proteges have mobilized a miserable group of
political scientists who understand that nobody will pick up such
streetwalkers in Yerevan except the Russians who will dump them in
the street. However, the Russians do not care for public opinion
in Armenia. It is considered that the beginning of the war will not
depend on the wish of Armenia.
Igor Muradyan 15:30 03/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30351