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"GROOMSMEN" OF CHEAP GAS
Armenians wonder how the country will benefit if it signs the
Association Agreement with European Union or if it joins the
Customs Union. Indeed, there is no discussion and awareness within
the public. In this sense, those who see Armenia in the Customs or
Eurasian Union are more active.
Probably the reason is that the Association with EU does not need
advertisement since it is senseless to compare the development
and achievements of the European Union and Eurasian territory. The
supporters of the Eurasian Union have nothing else to do but to paint
the EU success of "blue" color, and present the Eurasian Union as
the only economic lifebelt which may save Armenia.
Along with all this, there is the reality: according to the data
of the Russian central bank, in the first quarter, 25 billion USD
left Russia. What does this mean? This means that it turned out
inexpedient to invest this capital in Russia, in case this country
needs investments to get up from the oil and gas needle. Russia,
in fact, does not trust itself if in one quarter such a huge capital
leaves the country. According to the same data, in April-May period,
another 10 billion left the country.
The movement of capital is one of the indexes of the vitality and
attraction of the economy, and Russia is supposed to be the axis of
the Eurasian economic union.
Under these conditions, it is dilettantism to say that Russia will
provide cheap gas to the members of the Customs or Eurasian Union. The
myth on cheap gas vanished in 2006-2008 when Armenia sold the Hrazdan
State District Power Plant in order to subsidize the gas price for
companies. Then-president Robert Kocharyan said that buying cheaper
gas, our country will become more competitive.
But, it didn't happen because the guarantee for a competitive state
is not the cheap gas but competitive, legal field and independent
judiciary system, when businessmen are not the friends of the
governmental clan but people who have an innate characteristic,
knowledge and ability of doing business.
Consequently, rendering the cheap gas price topic the main argument
of joining the Eurasian or Customs Union means once again blowing a
balloon and wait to see it exploding.
At the same time, in the meantime capital is flowing out of Russia,
U.S. and Europe are trying to agree on a free trade zone. This may lead
to huge results in the world economy. The negotiations won't be easy,
especially in case of the Snowden scandal which caused Europeans'
dissatisfaction from Washington. But the formation of a common free
trade zone is an important strategic and security issue for both,
so they will surely come to terms on it.
Anyway, in terms of prospects, it is evident where the processes are
more beneficial for Armenia. Going somewhere from where the capital
escapes, means at least short-sightedness, as much as it is not trying
to get closer to a process formed by the most powerful world segment.
In terms of economic criteria, association with the European Union is
evidently beneficial both in present and future terms since Armenia
just needs to enter the system in order to ensure changes.
This does not mean that in a short period after signing the Association
agreement, we will witness changes because they supposes for more
serious steps inside the country. The point is that association with
Europe creates the preconditions for such changes. It is a different
question if Armenia will or won't use them. As to the Customs and
Eurasian Union, they are guarantees for the preservation of the current
system and conditions, because the members of these unions are those,
who are Armenia's "groomsmen" in systemic terms.
JAMES HAKOBYAN 12:37 04/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30356
Armenians wonder how the country will benefit if it signs the
Association Agreement with European Union or if it joins the
Customs Union. Indeed, there is no discussion and awareness within
the public. In this sense, those who see Armenia in the Customs or
Eurasian Union are more active.
Probably the reason is that the Association with EU does not need
advertisement since it is senseless to compare the development
and achievements of the European Union and Eurasian territory. The
supporters of the Eurasian Union have nothing else to do but to paint
the EU success of "blue" color, and present the Eurasian Union as
the only economic lifebelt which may save Armenia.
Along with all this, there is the reality: according to the data
of the Russian central bank, in the first quarter, 25 billion USD
left Russia. What does this mean? This means that it turned out
inexpedient to invest this capital in Russia, in case this country
needs investments to get up from the oil and gas needle. Russia,
in fact, does not trust itself if in one quarter such a huge capital
leaves the country. According to the same data, in April-May period,
another 10 billion left the country.
The movement of capital is one of the indexes of the vitality and
attraction of the economy, and Russia is supposed to be the axis of
the Eurasian economic union.
Under these conditions, it is dilettantism to say that Russia will
provide cheap gas to the members of the Customs or Eurasian Union. The
myth on cheap gas vanished in 2006-2008 when Armenia sold the Hrazdan
State District Power Plant in order to subsidize the gas price for
companies. Then-president Robert Kocharyan said that buying cheaper
gas, our country will become more competitive.
But, it didn't happen because the guarantee for a competitive state
is not the cheap gas but competitive, legal field and independent
judiciary system, when businessmen are not the friends of the
governmental clan but people who have an innate characteristic,
knowledge and ability of doing business.
Consequently, rendering the cheap gas price topic the main argument
of joining the Eurasian or Customs Union means once again blowing a
balloon and wait to see it exploding.
At the same time, in the meantime capital is flowing out of Russia,
U.S. and Europe are trying to agree on a free trade zone. This may lead
to huge results in the world economy. The negotiations won't be easy,
especially in case of the Snowden scandal which caused Europeans'
dissatisfaction from Washington. But the formation of a common free
trade zone is an important strategic and security issue for both,
so they will surely come to terms on it.
Anyway, in terms of prospects, it is evident where the processes are
more beneficial for Armenia. Going somewhere from where the capital
escapes, means at least short-sightedness, as much as it is not trying
to get closer to a process formed by the most powerful world segment.
In terms of economic criteria, association with the European Union is
evidently beneficial both in present and future terms since Armenia
just needs to enter the system in order to ensure changes.
This does not mean that in a short period after signing the Association
agreement, we will witness changes because they supposes for more
serious steps inside the country. The point is that association with
Europe creates the preconditions for such changes. It is a different
question if Armenia will or won't use them. As to the Customs and
Eurasian Union, they are guarantees for the preservation of the current
system and conditions, because the members of these unions are those,
who are Armenia's "groomsmen" in systemic terms.
JAMES HAKOBYAN 12:37 04/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30356