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TURKEY ON THE THRESHOLD OF 2015
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12258
11.07.2013
Arestakes Simavoryan
Head of the Center for Armenian Studies, "Noravank" Foundation
While Ankara is trying to handle domestic developments, preparatory
works directed against the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide
still remain on the agenda. What does Turkey prepare; how is it going
to implement it; what proposals are made and what issues, which will
be an integral part of Turkey's policy in the next two years (or even
for a longer period), are put forward?
Turkey's academic, research and political circles come out with
different analytical articles and ideas on the threshold of 2015. The
viewpoints of the analysts make an impression that Turkey still needs
a strategy to neutralize the activity of the Armenian side.
It should be mentioned that such strategic programmes and actions are
not always public. Contrary to the concerns of Turkey connected with
the "absence of strategy", the starting point has been laid down and
now one can confidently say that the powers involved in this process
has initiated preparatory works.
Back in September 2011 the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Ahmet
Davutoglu at the meeting with the Turkish diplomatic corps "secretly
alerted", ordering to be more active in hampering the activity of the
Armenian Diaspora all over the world through particularly setting
close relations with the Armenian Diaspora.
Many Turkish political, public and intellectual circles believe that
before 2015 Turkey should cardinally change its policy of
preconditions towards Armenia from establishing diplomatic relations
to apologizing to Armenians. In particular, in the opinion of the
analyst of the American Brookings Institute Omer Taspinar connecting
Armenian-Turkish protocols with the Karabakh issue leads to a
deadlock1.
While speaking about rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey before
2015, Turkish analyst Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu thinks that establishing of
the political relations can put an end to all the issues and mark the
victory of the Turkish diplomacy in this contradictory geographic
situation2. Even western futurologists believe that Turkey will again
initiate negotiations with Armenia with purpose of establishing
diplomatic relation and opening borders before 2015 in spite of
Azerbaijan's discontent.
Even apologizing to the Armenians, when it is spoken about the
"repent" on a state level, is considered in other dimension - Â"as a
broader framework of a "shared tragedy," where there is also Armenian
empathy for Turkish lossesÂ"3. This approach is based on Ahmet
Davutoglu's "fair memory" concept and being controversial for some
representatives of Turkish intelligentsia, nevertheless, it is taken
as the most acceptable in the relations with Armenia at least
concerning the Genocide.
It is obvious that possible "apologizing" at a state level will regard
not to the Genocide perpetrated by the Turkish state but to the
so-called "humanitarian disaster", i.e. to the consequences of the war
in the Ottoman Empire which appeared on the brink of collapse. And
here they mean not only a unilateral apology. In order to substantiate
our words we can bring concept of Dr. Sedat Laciner, the author of
several anti-Armenian books and dozens of analytical articles, rector
of the Canakkale "18th of March" University: "2015 is the 100th
anniversary of the Armenian deportations and Armenians prepare
seriously for it. I wonder whether the president of Armenia can lay a
rose or a carnation to the tomb of out victims if he visits Gallipoli
Peninsula in March 2015. And in this case will our president or
prime-minister visit Yerevan, go to the Genocide memorial and, laying
a wreath, will he say that we don't call it Genocide (underlined by us
- A.S.) but we understand your pain?"4 Turkey will do everything to
avoid using word genocide. This is one of the points of the Turkish
strategy5.
Long-repeated proposals and points of view of the Turkish analysts,
which have the same content, prove their directedness. Public
"attempts" of the Turks directed to setting the relations with Armenia
in reality are meant for the international audience and their goal is
to weaken our attentiveness on the threshold of 2015.
In the struggle with the Armenians the information and propaganda
means of different character and scale are offered, including the
tactics of engaging foreign "scholars". Today the foreign "scholars"
also continue to closely cooperate with political and intellectual
circles of Turkey and they often come out with proposals and appeals.
Professor of Massachusetts University Gunter Levi, who has been
working for Turkey for ages and who has been called "Turkish agent",
urged to prepare well for 2015 which would be a serious challenge to
Turkey6.
The founder of the "21st Century" Turkish institute and Institute for
the Armenian Studies under the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies,
which was working back in 2000 (ASAM)7, Umit Ozdal, who has been
dealing with the Armenian theme and information security for many
years, considers all the actions on efficient dissemination of the
Turkish postulates aboard carried out till now insufficient. He
proposes to prepare foreign young "scholars" and celebrated
"historians" who will protect the interests of Turkey in the
target-countries, such as US, Great Britain, France, Spain, Latin
America, Lithuania, Germany, China and Japan. In the future these
"scholars" will have an opportunity to publish pro-Turkish "academic"
works in dozens of languages and further establishment of Turkish
research institutes in the aforementioned countries8. We believe that
the generation of foreign falsifier "historians" is becoming old and
the issue of the alternation of the generation has become urgent. Such
ideas as making anti-Armenian films, putting on shows, holding other
cultural event as well we establishment of new analytical center
dealing with the Armenian question have been put into circulation.
The efforts in this direction are augmented by the both Turkish and
foreign "think tanks" funded by Turkey. Many countries, having big
experience in using the knowledge of these organizations and activity
of individuals who have influence in the state structures and who
constitute part of their "Diaspora", managed to establish their target
analytical centers abroad. In this aspect, the most active after
Israel, are Turkey and Azerbaijan, which consider their "think tanks"
in the US and Great Britain as an alternative "diplomatic corps" or
lobbyist groups, in a activity of which first of all specialists who
works in the country's leading higher educational establishments and
"think tanks" are involved. Such centers are Center for Strategic
Re¬¬search and Analysis (CESRAN) in Great Britain and The Reth¬ink
Ins¬titut and Тhe Foundation for Political, Economic and Social
Re¬search (SE¬TA) in the US.
The activity of the Center for Lobbyist Researches which has its
branches in Istanbul and Washington should be mentioned. Recently this
center has elaborated new strategy - mobilization of the lobbyist
activity in the Turkish society, which main goal is to send protests
to the presidents, ministers, state officials of different countries,
well-known media holdings, international mass media and online media,
Turkish ambassadors and consuls as well as carrying out non-public
actions. And the movement which is called "national mobilization"
should serve the interests of Azerbaijan in the NKR issue.
The attempt will be made to consolidate those circles of the so-called
Turkish and Azerbaijani "Diaspora" which will be able to work actively
on the one hand against Armenia and on the other hand against
Diaspora. The work in this direction is already being carried out.
New anti-Armenian manifestations can be expected on the threshold of
2015 in consequence of the activity of the Turkish and Azerbaijani
trade unions and NGOs established in Europe. Thus, anti-Armenian moods
are taken from the territory of Turkey to Europe, US, Latin America,
where works are also carried out.
It is remarkable that in regard to the Genocide issue the Turkic
speaking countries have abstained from joining joint
Turkish-Azerbaijani actions at the pan-Turkic forums and conferences
till now. Nevertheless, today the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem tends to
involve them too.
"World Turkic Forum" held the 1st meeting of "Wise Persons Board" the
participants of which alongside with other issues discussed the
necessity of opposing Armenians in 20159. Thought the representatives
of the Central Asian Turkic-speaking countries have been more
interested in humanitarian, cultural and economic aspects of these
meeting, nevertheless they involuntarily appeared under the pressure
and were indirectly involved in the actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
According to some points of view, some provocations and aggressive
actions are not excluded either. In particular, the representative of
Turkish intelligentsia who writes critical articles for "Taraf"
newspaper Alper Germus expressed an opinion in connection with
assaults against the Armenians in Samatia district of Istanbul saying
that the assaults against the Armenians were direct in consequence of
"anti-missionary" movement which had been initiated in early 2000s in
Turkey, which could be considered as a purposeful actions directed to
the intimidation of the Armenians on the threshold of 201510.
Recently the so-called "International Association against Unfounded
Armenian Allegations" (ASIMDER) and different Turkish
ultra-nationalist powers have been speculating on the "New ASALA",
which has been made up by themselves, and possible "terrorist acts of
the Armenians".
Summing up, we would like to mention that there are adherents of both
soft and tough policies in the Turkish academic and analytical and
political circles and they discuss the ways of opposing to the
Armenians. The measures taken by Turkey on the threshold of 2015 may
differ from the aforementioned ones, but, one way or another, some of
their components can constitute a part of general and more large-scale
actions.
1 Omer TaÅ~_pınar, Armenia-Turkey and 2015,
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=286618
2 Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu, Turkey needs to devise a 2015 strategy,
http://www.fatihoztarsu.com/turkey-needs-to-devise-a-2015-strategy.html
3 Omer TaÅ~_pınar, Armenia-Turkey and 2015,
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=286618
4 Rektörun 2015 Hayali,
http://www.sondakika.com/haber-rektorun-2015-hayali-2800903/
5 Orhan Kemal Cengiz, Turkiye'nin 2015 stratejisi: "Soykırım"
kelimesinden mutlak Å~_ekilde kacınmak,
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/tr/originals/2013/04/turkey-diplomatic-campaign-stop-genocide-recognition.html#ixzz2VhlW80I7
6 Turk ajanı olmakla suclanan Lewy'den uyarı,
http://www.radikal.com.tr/radikal.aspx?atype=haberyazdir&articleid=1022245.
7 The Institute for the Armenian Studies which used to work under the
Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies is now continues to work under
other foundation which also deals with the strategic studies - AVIM
(http://www.avim.org.tr).
8 Umit Ozdag, DıÅ~_ Ä°Å~_leri Bakanına Acık Mektup veya 2015'e Dogru Yeni
Bir Buyuk Strateji Onerisi,
http://www.21yyte.org/arastirma/milli-guvenlik-ve-dis-politika-arastirmalari-merkezi/2013/04/29/6972/dis-isleri-bakanina-acik-mektup-veya-2015e-dogru-yeni-bir-buyuk-strateji.
9 2. Dunya Turk Forumu Ä°stanbul Deklarasyonu ( Taslak),
http://www.dunyaturkforumu.com/en/com¬ponent-/content/article/10-haberler/106--2-duenya-tuerk-forumu-stanbul-deklarasyonu-taslak.
10 Alper GörmuÅ~_, 2015'e ayarlı 'Ermenileri urkutme' operasyonu,
http://www.taraf.com.tr/alper-gormus/makale-2015-e-ayarli-ermenileri-urkutme-operasyonu.htm
"Globus" analytical journal, #6, 2013
Another materials of author
SCHOOLS OF THE ARMENIAN CATHOLIC COMMUNITY IN ISTANBUL[06.06.2013]
ACADEMIC AND EXPERT POTENTIAL OF THE DIASPORA: ISSUES OF ASSESSMENT
AND ORGANIZATION[04.03.2013]
THE GROUNDS OF INTER-CONFESSIONAL COOPERATION IN THE DIASPORA[03.09.2012]
CHRISTIANS IN TODAY'S TURKEY (Protestants and Catholics) [24.05.2012]
THE CLERICAL AND CHURCH ISSUES OF THE ARMENIAN CATHOLIC COMMUNITY IN
RUSSIA[22.12.2011]
CATHOLIC ARMENIANS IN POLAND[17.10.2011]
FORECASTS ON TURKEY'S FUTURE[15.09.2011]
ON THE ISSUES OF THE CATHOLICS ARMENIAN[09.06.2011]
ARMENIAN CATHOLIC COMMUNITY IN RUSSIA[24.12.2010]
ARMENIAN CATHOLICS IN TURKEY[01.03.2010]
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=12258
11.07.2013
Arestakes Simavoryan
Head of the Center for Armenian Studies, "Noravank" Foundation
While Ankara is trying to handle domestic developments, preparatory
works directed against the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide
still remain on the agenda. What does Turkey prepare; how is it going
to implement it; what proposals are made and what issues, which will
be an integral part of Turkey's policy in the next two years (or even
for a longer period), are put forward?
Turkey's academic, research and political circles come out with
different analytical articles and ideas on the threshold of 2015. The
viewpoints of the analysts make an impression that Turkey still needs
a strategy to neutralize the activity of the Armenian side.
It should be mentioned that such strategic programmes and actions are
not always public. Contrary to the concerns of Turkey connected with
the "absence of strategy", the starting point has been laid down and
now one can confidently say that the powers involved in this process
has initiated preparatory works.
Back in September 2011 the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Ahmet
Davutoglu at the meeting with the Turkish diplomatic corps "secretly
alerted", ordering to be more active in hampering the activity of the
Armenian Diaspora all over the world through particularly setting
close relations with the Armenian Diaspora.
Many Turkish political, public and intellectual circles believe that
before 2015 Turkey should cardinally change its policy of
preconditions towards Armenia from establishing diplomatic relations
to apologizing to Armenians. In particular, in the opinion of the
analyst of the American Brookings Institute Omer Taspinar connecting
Armenian-Turkish protocols with the Karabakh issue leads to a
deadlock1.
While speaking about rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey before
2015, Turkish analyst Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu thinks that establishing of
the political relations can put an end to all the issues and mark the
victory of the Turkish diplomacy in this contradictory geographic
situation2. Even western futurologists believe that Turkey will again
initiate negotiations with Armenia with purpose of establishing
diplomatic relation and opening borders before 2015 in spite of
Azerbaijan's discontent.
Even apologizing to the Armenians, when it is spoken about the
"repent" on a state level, is considered in other dimension - Â"as a
broader framework of a "shared tragedy," where there is also Armenian
empathy for Turkish lossesÂ"3. This approach is based on Ahmet
Davutoglu's "fair memory" concept and being controversial for some
representatives of Turkish intelligentsia, nevertheless, it is taken
as the most acceptable in the relations with Armenia at least
concerning the Genocide.
It is obvious that possible "apologizing" at a state level will regard
not to the Genocide perpetrated by the Turkish state but to the
so-called "humanitarian disaster", i.e. to the consequences of the war
in the Ottoman Empire which appeared on the brink of collapse. And
here they mean not only a unilateral apology. In order to substantiate
our words we can bring concept of Dr. Sedat Laciner, the author of
several anti-Armenian books and dozens of analytical articles, rector
of the Canakkale "18th of March" University: "2015 is the 100th
anniversary of the Armenian deportations and Armenians prepare
seriously for it. I wonder whether the president of Armenia can lay a
rose or a carnation to the tomb of out victims if he visits Gallipoli
Peninsula in March 2015. And in this case will our president or
prime-minister visit Yerevan, go to the Genocide memorial and, laying
a wreath, will he say that we don't call it Genocide (underlined by us
- A.S.) but we understand your pain?"4 Turkey will do everything to
avoid using word genocide. This is one of the points of the Turkish
strategy5.
Long-repeated proposals and points of view of the Turkish analysts,
which have the same content, prove their directedness. Public
"attempts" of the Turks directed to setting the relations with Armenia
in reality are meant for the international audience and their goal is
to weaken our attentiveness on the threshold of 2015.
In the struggle with the Armenians the information and propaganda
means of different character and scale are offered, including the
tactics of engaging foreign "scholars". Today the foreign "scholars"
also continue to closely cooperate with political and intellectual
circles of Turkey and they often come out with proposals and appeals.
Professor of Massachusetts University Gunter Levi, who has been
working for Turkey for ages and who has been called "Turkish agent",
urged to prepare well for 2015 which would be a serious challenge to
Turkey6.
The founder of the "21st Century" Turkish institute and Institute for
the Armenian Studies under the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies,
which was working back in 2000 (ASAM)7, Umit Ozdal, who has been
dealing with the Armenian theme and information security for many
years, considers all the actions on efficient dissemination of the
Turkish postulates aboard carried out till now insufficient. He
proposes to prepare foreign young "scholars" and celebrated
"historians" who will protect the interests of Turkey in the
target-countries, such as US, Great Britain, France, Spain, Latin
America, Lithuania, Germany, China and Japan. In the future these
"scholars" will have an opportunity to publish pro-Turkish "academic"
works in dozens of languages and further establishment of Turkish
research institutes in the aforementioned countries8. We believe that
the generation of foreign falsifier "historians" is becoming old and
the issue of the alternation of the generation has become urgent. Such
ideas as making anti-Armenian films, putting on shows, holding other
cultural event as well we establishment of new analytical center
dealing with the Armenian question have been put into circulation.
The efforts in this direction are augmented by the both Turkish and
foreign "think tanks" funded by Turkey. Many countries, having big
experience in using the knowledge of these organizations and activity
of individuals who have influence in the state structures and who
constitute part of their "Diaspora", managed to establish their target
analytical centers abroad. In this aspect, the most active after
Israel, are Turkey and Azerbaijan, which consider their "think tanks"
in the US and Great Britain as an alternative "diplomatic corps" or
lobbyist groups, in a activity of which first of all specialists who
works in the country's leading higher educational establishments and
"think tanks" are involved. Such centers are Center for Strategic
Re¬¬search and Analysis (CESRAN) in Great Britain and The Reth¬ink
Ins¬titut and Тhe Foundation for Political, Economic and Social
Re¬search (SE¬TA) in the US.
The activity of the Center for Lobbyist Researches which has its
branches in Istanbul and Washington should be mentioned. Recently this
center has elaborated new strategy - mobilization of the lobbyist
activity in the Turkish society, which main goal is to send protests
to the presidents, ministers, state officials of different countries,
well-known media holdings, international mass media and online media,
Turkish ambassadors and consuls as well as carrying out non-public
actions. And the movement which is called "national mobilization"
should serve the interests of Azerbaijan in the NKR issue.
The attempt will be made to consolidate those circles of the so-called
Turkish and Azerbaijani "Diaspora" which will be able to work actively
on the one hand against Armenia and on the other hand against
Diaspora. The work in this direction is already being carried out.
New anti-Armenian manifestations can be expected on the threshold of
2015 in consequence of the activity of the Turkish and Azerbaijani
trade unions and NGOs established in Europe. Thus, anti-Armenian moods
are taken from the territory of Turkey to Europe, US, Latin America,
where works are also carried out.
It is remarkable that in regard to the Genocide issue the Turkic
speaking countries have abstained from joining joint
Turkish-Azerbaijani actions at the pan-Turkic forums and conferences
till now. Nevertheless, today the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem tends to
involve them too.
"World Turkic Forum" held the 1st meeting of "Wise Persons Board" the
participants of which alongside with other issues discussed the
necessity of opposing Armenians in 20159. Thought the representatives
of the Central Asian Turkic-speaking countries have been more
interested in humanitarian, cultural and economic aspects of these
meeting, nevertheless they involuntarily appeared under the pressure
and were indirectly involved in the actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
According to some points of view, some provocations and aggressive
actions are not excluded either. In particular, the representative of
Turkish intelligentsia who writes critical articles for "Taraf"
newspaper Alper Germus expressed an opinion in connection with
assaults against the Armenians in Samatia district of Istanbul saying
that the assaults against the Armenians were direct in consequence of
"anti-missionary" movement which had been initiated in early 2000s in
Turkey, which could be considered as a purposeful actions directed to
the intimidation of the Armenians on the threshold of 201510.
Recently the so-called "International Association against Unfounded
Armenian Allegations" (ASIMDER) and different Turkish
ultra-nationalist powers have been speculating on the "New ASALA",
which has been made up by themselves, and possible "terrorist acts of
the Armenians".
Summing up, we would like to mention that there are adherents of both
soft and tough policies in the Turkish academic and analytical and
political circles and they discuss the ways of opposing to the
Armenians. The measures taken by Turkey on the threshold of 2015 may
differ from the aforementioned ones, but, one way or another, some of
their components can constitute a part of general and more large-scale
actions.
1 Omer TaÅ~_pınar, Armenia-Turkey and 2015,
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=286618
2 Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu, Turkey needs to devise a 2015 strategy,
http://www.fatihoztarsu.com/turkey-needs-to-devise-a-2015-strategy.html
3 Omer TaÅ~_pınar, Armenia-Turkey and 2015,
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=286618
4 Rektörun 2015 Hayali,
http://www.sondakika.com/haber-rektorun-2015-hayali-2800903/
5 Orhan Kemal Cengiz, Turkiye'nin 2015 stratejisi: "Soykırım"
kelimesinden mutlak Å~_ekilde kacınmak,
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/tr/originals/2013/04/turkey-diplomatic-campaign-stop-genocide-recognition.html#ixzz2VhlW80I7
6 Turk ajanı olmakla suclanan Lewy'den uyarı,
http://www.radikal.com.tr/radikal.aspx?atype=haberyazdir&articleid=1022245.
7 The Institute for the Armenian Studies which used to work under the
Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies is now continues to work under
other foundation which also deals with the strategic studies - AVIM
(http://www.avim.org.tr).
8 Umit Ozdag, DıÅ~_ Ä°Å~_leri Bakanına Acık Mektup veya 2015'e Dogru Yeni
Bir Buyuk Strateji Onerisi,
http://www.21yyte.org/arastirma/milli-guvenlik-ve-dis-politika-arastirmalari-merkezi/2013/04/29/6972/dis-isleri-bakanina-acik-mektup-veya-2015e-dogru-yeni-bir-buyuk-strateji.
9 2. Dunya Turk Forumu Ä°stanbul Deklarasyonu ( Taslak),
http://www.dunyaturkforumu.com/en/com¬ponent-/content/article/10-haberler/106--2-duenya-tuerk-forumu-stanbul-deklarasyonu-taslak.
10 Alper GörmuÅ~_, 2015'e ayarlı 'Ermenileri urkutme' operasyonu,
http://www.taraf.com.tr/alper-gormus/makale-2015-e-ayarli-ermenileri-urkutme-operasyonu.htm
"Globus" analytical journal, #6, 2013
Another materials of author
SCHOOLS OF THE ARMENIAN CATHOLIC COMMUNITY IN ISTANBUL[06.06.2013]
ACADEMIC AND EXPERT POTENTIAL OF THE DIASPORA: ISSUES OF ASSESSMENT
AND ORGANIZATION[04.03.2013]
THE GROUNDS OF INTER-CONFESSIONAL COOPERATION IN THE DIASPORA[03.09.2012]
CHRISTIANS IN TODAY'S TURKEY (Protestants and Catholics) [24.05.2012]
THE CLERICAL AND CHURCH ISSUES OF THE ARMENIAN CATHOLIC COMMUNITY IN
RUSSIA[22.12.2011]
CATHOLIC ARMENIANS IN POLAND[17.10.2011]
FORECASTS ON TURKEY'S FUTURE[15.09.2011]
ON THE ISSUES OF THE CATHOLICS ARMENIAN[09.06.2011]
ARMENIAN CATHOLIC COMMUNITY IN RUSSIA[24.12.2010]
ARMENIAN CATHOLICS IN TURKEY[01.03.2010]