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WILL EUROPE FORCE TURKEY TO OPEN BORDERS?
Armenia has put forward the opening of border with Turkey as a
precondition for signing the Association Agreement with EU. On the
one hand, this is a "good way" to escape from Euro-integration which
is fraught with unpredictable sanctions by Russia. On the other hand,
Serzh Sargsyan may start a big regional game.
The Armenian-Turkish process, which started publicly in 2008, was
initiated with the aim of opening of communications and infrastructures
in the region. But the process stopped because of the irreconcilable
position of Turkey and Azerbaijan. These countries were given a chance
to become a part of the geopolitical region and have big profits. But
Turkey didn't wish to become a part, because it wants the region to
become its part.
This chance was not used, but this does not mean that plans to
open regional communications are no longer urgent. Just the working
principles have changed. Now Turkey and Azerbaijan won't be given
any chance, moreover, the influence levers on them have become more,
one of which is Armenia.
A couple of days before Serzh Sargsyan's statement, prosecutor general
of Armenia Aghvan Hovsepyan made a sensational statement. Through
the words of the main carrier of the legal power in Armenia claims of
Armenia to Turkey, including territorial, were declared. His statement
has been neither "condemned" nor approved at international level,
but not because they did not appreciate the seriousness, but because
everyone was waiting for the next step.
Turkey didn't react to the statement, perhaps, not wanting to
catch the ball. And the next step followed: Armenia put forward a
precondition to Europe: unless the Armenian-Turkish border is open,
Association with European Union will be meaningless. This means that
Europe should publicly turn to Turkey demanding to open the border.
Turkey will either have to open the border, or announce that it won't,
and then it may have to leave the Customs Union with EU. Turkey may
choose an original move: to leave the EU Customs Union and join the
Russian one with Belarus and Kazakhstan. But then it will have issues
with NATO.
EU-Armenia Association is part of the opening of the region. It
should allow reducing dependence on Russia, which controls the
Armenian-Turkish border and, together with Azerbaijan, isolates Armenia
from the region. But the issue is not Armenia, but the fact that the
isolated Armenia is a cork in the region, and the region will always
remain closed unless Armenia's borders are open.
In this sense, Serzh Sargsyan's step is a chess fork, on the one hand
it fits into the logic of Russian-Turkish isolation, on the other hand,
it gives Europe arguments against Turkey.
It is hard to say whether this is a calculated move, but it is very
dangerous in terms of failing the European course of Armenia without
solving global issues.
Naira Hayrumyan 13:28 12/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30446
Armenia has put forward the opening of border with Turkey as a
precondition for signing the Association Agreement with EU. On the
one hand, this is a "good way" to escape from Euro-integration which
is fraught with unpredictable sanctions by Russia. On the other hand,
Serzh Sargsyan may start a big regional game.
The Armenian-Turkish process, which started publicly in 2008, was
initiated with the aim of opening of communications and infrastructures
in the region. But the process stopped because of the irreconcilable
position of Turkey and Azerbaijan. These countries were given a chance
to become a part of the geopolitical region and have big profits. But
Turkey didn't wish to become a part, because it wants the region to
become its part.
This chance was not used, but this does not mean that plans to
open regional communications are no longer urgent. Just the working
principles have changed. Now Turkey and Azerbaijan won't be given
any chance, moreover, the influence levers on them have become more,
one of which is Armenia.
A couple of days before Serzh Sargsyan's statement, prosecutor general
of Armenia Aghvan Hovsepyan made a sensational statement. Through
the words of the main carrier of the legal power in Armenia claims of
Armenia to Turkey, including territorial, were declared. His statement
has been neither "condemned" nor approved at international level,
but not because they did not appreciate the seriousness, but because
everyone was waiting for the next step.
Turkey didn't react to the statement, perhaps, not wanting to
catch the ball. And the next step followed: Armenia put forward a
precondition to Europe: unless the Armenian-Turkish border is open,
Association with European Union will be meaningless. This means that
Europe should publicly turn to Turkey demanding to open the border.
Turkey will either have to open the border, or announce that it won't,
and then it may have to leave the Customs Union with EU. Turkey may
choose an original move: to leave the EU Customs Union and join the
Russian one with Belarus and Kazakhstan. But then it will have issues
with NATO.
EU-Armenia Association is part of the opening of the region. It
should allow reducing dependence on Russia, which controls the
Armenian-Turkish border and, together with Azerbaijan, isolates Armenia
from the region. But the issue is not Armenia, but the fact that the
isolated Armenia is a cork in the region, and the region will always
remain closed unless Armenia's borders are open.
In this sense, Serzh Sargsyan's step is a chess fork, on the one hand
it fits into the logic of Russian-Turkish isolation, on the other hand,
it gives Europe arguments against Turkey.
It is hard to say whether this is a calculated move, but it is very
dangerous in terms of failing the European course of Armenia without
solving global issues.
Naira Hayrumyan 13:28 12/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30446