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Scenarios For Russian Policy On Regional Caucasus

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  • Scenarios For Russian Policy On Regional Caucasus

    SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIAN POLICY ON REGIONAL CAUCASUS

    After two decades of deep delusions Moscow thinks that it has finally
    achieved the formulation of the main political approaches that should
    be applied to the South Caucasus. The main principle selected is the
    "American" principle of parity in regional policies.

    In the second half of the 2000s the backstage understanding occurred
    in the Russian government that in essence Russia will hardly succeed
    conducting a policy of parities, and it would be good to implement
    the principle of "priorities" as soon as possible. It did not take
    place though due to active interference of remarkable and renowned
    politicians of soviet retro-politics.

    Sometimes it is accepted to say that these politicians have no
    significant influence on modern Russian politics. However, the
    paradox of the failure "empire" is that one need not have significant
    influence to form political approaches if there are no alternative
    ideas and people.

    Currently, the North Caucasus is devastated, and half of the population
    of this region has appeared in different regions of Russia.

    Aggressive Islamism has lost its value in terms of ideology, as well
    as its social potential.

    The Muscovite elite has successfully instilled in the population of
    the country that the current state of security in the South Caucasus
    is normal, and they will have to take the region as it is. It had
    a considerable role in starting up the Russian policy on the South
    Caucasus. Georgia's situation is perfectly in line with Russia's
    interest. It is in a state of steady dynamics. It is trying to form
    a situation that is highly convenient for Russia.

    The current state of Georgia is also convenient for the West which
    views the lack of confrontation in Russian-Georgian relations as most
    acceptable for its interests.

    Moscow is trying to establish its control over the region on
    Azerbaijani money, introducing a new scheme of correlation of forces,
    reinforcing (in Russian's opinion) the influence on Armenia and
    Azerbaijan. For the time being, Russia is interested in fostering
    the arms race and tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    No doubt Russia that hopes for lack of threat of deployment of NATO
    troops in the South Caucasus is still hoping to deploy its troops in
    the area of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In this case, Russia will
    behave in line with "international law" which means, like in the early
    90s, legitimacy of the Azerbaijani constitution in Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Russia hopes to thereby keep both sides under control. It is a simple
    and tried-out scheme, and the West understands it.

    The United States has shifted problems in the South Caucasus on the
    European Union, preferring to resolve issues in other regions with
    Russia. The West again hopes for a clash between Russia and its big
    southern neighbors but apparently it will not happen in the nearest
    future.

    The United States and the European Union have never viewed the South
    Caucasus as part of the non-European space, nor the Near East and
    Eurasia. The Europeans, more than the Americans, are interested in a
    more active integration of the South Caucasus in the change of format
    of relations with the countries of this region - establishment of
    transit region focusing on an integrated bastion in the "diagonal",
    that is southeast direction.

    The South Caucasus is becoming an important part of the European
    system of security. Moscow understands that the regional situation is
    changing, slowly but still, and these quasi-dynamics will sooner or
    later lead to cardinal changes in the South Caucasus. It is necessary
    to hurry, and there is hope for a new large-scale conflict between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    In this situation Russia could have promised Azerbaijan to withhold
    support to Armenia in case of war, as well as certain actions of
    the Russian military base in Gyumri against Armenia. If it has not
    happened yet, it is very likely to happen.

    So, it is therefore necessary to develop the response of the Armenian
    armed forces in case of participation of the Russian military base
    of Gyumri in actions against Armenia.

    Of course, that would be a trouble for military intervention of Turkey
    in the expected war but Russia could agree with Turkey on observing
    the interests of Azerbaijan with Turkey in any outcome of military
    actions. Now a lot links the interests of Russia and Turkey in the
    direction of both NATO and the European Union.

    The problem of Syria was a serious factor of controversies between
    them but Syria is only one direction of such big states.

    The situation in Armenia is not simple, and even the car crash in
    Podolsk is perceived as an act of retribution of the Armenian driver
    for Russian supply of weapons to Azerbaijan. Some "diversity" may be
    introduced into the political life of Armenia, such as murder of some
    pro-Russian political scientists or "politicians".

    Igor Muradyan 12:34 17/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30480

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