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SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIAN POLICY ON REGIONAL CAUCASUS
After two decades of deep delusions Moscow thinks that it has finally
achieved the formulation of the main political approaches that should
be applied to the South Caucasus. The main principle selected is the
"American" principle of parity in regional policies.
In the second half of the 2000s the backstage understanding occurred
in the Russian government that in essence Russia will hardly succeed
conducting a policy of parities, and it would be good to implement
the principle of "priorities" as soon as possible. It did not take
place though due to active interference of remarkable and renowned
politicians of soviet retro-politics.
Sometimes it is accepted to say that these politicians have no
significant influence on modern Russian politics. However, the
paradox of the failure "empire" is that one need not have significant
influence to form political approaches if there are no alternative
ideas and people.
Currently, the North Caucasus is devastated, and half of the population
of this region has appeared in different regions of Russia.
Aggressive Islamism has lost its value in terms of ideology, as well
as its social potential.
The Muscovite elite has successfully instilled in the population of
the country that the current state of security in the South Caucasus
is normal, and they will have to take the region as it is. It had
a considerable role in starting up the Russian policy on the South
Caucasus. Georgia's situation is perfectly in line with Russia's
interest. It is in a state of steady dynamics. It is trying to form
a situation that is highly convenient for Russia.
The current state of Georgia is also convenient for the West which
views the lack of confrontation in Russian-Georgian relations as most
acceptable for its interests.
Moscow is trying to establish its control over the region on
Azerbaijani money, introducing a new scheme of correlation of forces,
reinforcing (in Russian's opinion) the influence on Armenia and
Azerbaijan. For the time being, Russia is interested in fostering
the arms race and tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
No doubt Russia that hopes for lack of threat of deployment of NATO
troops in the South Caucasus is still hoping to deploy its troops in
the area of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In this case, Russia will
behave in line with "international law" which means, like in the early
90s, legitimacy of the Azerbaijani constitution in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia hopes to thereby keep both sides under control. It is a simple
and tried-out scheme, and the West understands it.
The United States has shifted problems in the South Caucasus on the
European Union, preferring to resolve issues in other regions with
Russia. The West again hopes for a clash between Russia and its big
southern neighbors but apparently it will not happen in the nearest
future.
The United States and the European Union have never viewed the South
Caucasus as part of the non-European space, nor the Near East and
Eurasia. The Europeans, more than the Americans, are interested in a
more active integration of the South Caucasus in the change of format
of relations with the countries of this region - establishment of
transit region focusing on an integrated bastion in the "diagonal",
that is southeast direction.
The South Caucasus is becoming an important part of the European
system of security. Moscow understands that the regional situation is
changing, slowly but still, and these quasi-dynamics will sooner or
later lead to cardinal changes in the South Caucasus. It is necessary
to hurry, and there is hope for a new large-scale conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In this situation Russia could have promised Azerbaijan to withhold
support to Armenia in case of war, as well as certain actions of
the Russian military base in Gyumri against Armenia. If it has not
happened yet, it is very likely to happen.
So, it is therefore necessary to develop the response of the Armenian
armed forces in case of participation of the Russian military base
of Gyumri in actions against Armenia.
Of course, that would be a trouble for military intervention of Turkey
in the expected war but Russia could agree with Turkey on observing
the interests of Azerbaijan with Turkey in any outcome of military
actions. Now a lot links the interests of Russia and Turkey in the
direction of both NATO and the European Union.
The problem of Syria was a serious factor of controversies between
them but Syria is only one direction of such big states.
The situation in Armenia is not simple, and even the car crash in
Podolsk is perceived as an act of retribution of the Armenian driver
for Russian supply of weapons to Azerbaijan. Some "diversity" may be
introduced into the political life of Armenia, such as murder of some
pro-Russian political scientists or "politicians".
Igor Muradyan 12:34 17/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30480
After two decades of deep delusions Moscow thinks that it has finally
achieved the formulation of the main political approaches that should
be applied to the South Caucasus. The main principle selected is the
"American" principle of parity in regional policies.
In the second half of the 2000s the backstage understanding occurred
in the Russian government that in essence Russia will hardly succeed
conducting a policy of parities, and it would be good to implement
the principle of "priorities" as soon as possible. It did not take
place though due to active interference of remarkable and renowned
politicians of soviet retro-politics.
Sometimes it is accepted to say that these politicians have no
significant influence on modern Russian politics. However, the
paradox of the failure "empire" is that one need not have significant
influence to form political approaches if there are no alternative
ideas and people.
Currently, the North Caucasus is devastated, and half of the population
of this region has appeared in different regions of Russia.
Aggressive Islamism has lost its value in terms of ideology, as well
as its social potential.
The Muscovite elite has successfully instilled in the population of
the country that the current state of security in the South Caucasus
is normal, and they will have to take the region as it is. It had
a considerable role in starting up the Russian policy on the South
Caucasus. Georgia's situation is perfectly in line with Russia's
interest. It is in a state of steady dynamics. It is trying to form
a situation that is highly convenient for Russia.
The current state of Georgia is also convenient for the West which
views the lack of confrontation in Russian-Georgian relations as most
acceptable for its interests.
Moscow is trying to establish its control over the region on
Azerbaijani money, introducing a new scheme of correlation of forces,
reinforcing (in Russian's opinion) the influence on Armenia and
Azerbaijan. For the time being, Russia is interested in fostering
the arms race and tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
No doubt Russia that hopes for lack of threat of deployment of NATO
troops in the South Caucasus is still hoping to deploy its troops in
the area of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In this case, Russia will
behave in line with "international law" which means, like in the early
90s, legitimacy of the Azerbaijani constitution in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia hopes to thereby keep both sides under control. It is a simple
and tried-out scheme, and the West understands it.
The United States has shifted problems in the South Caucasus on the
European Union, preferring to resolve issues in other regions with
Russia. The West again hopes for a clash between Russia and its big
southern neighbors but apparently it will not happen in the nearest
future.
The United States and the European Union have never viewed the South
Caucasus as part of the non-European space, nor the Near East and
Eurasia. The Europeans, more than the Americans, are interested in a
more active integration of the South Caucasus in the change of format
of relations with the countries of this region - establishment of
transit region focusing on an integrated bastion in the "diagonal",
that is southeast direction.
The South Caucasus is becoming an important part of the European
system of security. Moscow understands that the regional situation is
changing, slowly but still, and these quasi-dynamics will sooner or
later lead to cardinal changes in the South Caucasus. It is necessary
to hurry, and there is hope for a new large-scale conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In this situation Russia could have promised Azerbaijan to withhold
support to Armenia in case of war, as well as certain actions of
the Russian military base in Gyumri against Armenia. If it has not
happened yet, it is very likely to happen.
So, it is therefore necessary to develop the response of the Armenian
armed forces in case of participation of the Russian military base
of Gyumri in actions against Armenia.
Of course, that would be a trouble for military intervention of Turkey
in the expected war but Russia could agree with Turkey on observing
the interests of Azerbaijan with Turkey in any outcome of military
actions. Now a lot links the interests of Russia and Turkey in the
direction of both NATO and the European Union.
The problem of Syria was a serious factor of controversies between
them but Syria is only one direction of such big states.
The situation in Armenia is not simple, and even the car crash in
Podolsk is perceived as an act of retribution of the Armenian driver
for Russian supply of weapons to Azerbaijan. Some "diversity" may be
introduced into the political life of Armenia, such as murder of some
pro-Russian political scientists or "politicians".
Igor Muradyan 12:34 17/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30480