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"EUROPEAN" ARMENIA: VIEW FROM YEREVAN
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 23 2013
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Prospects of initialing of the Associative Treaty and the DCFTA
Agreement between Armenia and the EU in November at the Vilnius summit
of the Eastern Partnership become real. At least, it is confirmed by
recent events in foreign and internal political life of Armenia.
The planned initialling of the documents has been discussed for a
long time. However, the first real step by made by Commissioner for
Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Stefan Fule, who said
that Brussels expected the initialling of two mentioned documents
with Armenia at the coming summit of the EU. However, Fule noted that
ahead of this Armenia had to conduct internal reforms which would be
a condition for initialling the Associative Treaty.
Considering the specific nature of Armenian policy, there is no
guarantee that the current Armenian authorities will manage to satisfy
European requirements which are necessary for the preliminary signing
of the Vilnius agreements not only till November, but at any time.
These are the requirements: democratization, protection of human
rights, involvement of civil society in the political life of the
country. The key problem is not that the Armenian authorities don't
have enough time. If Yerevan and Brussels had the political will,
the problem of initialling the document would be purely technical.
However, the Armenian leadership has already stated its intention
to achieve initialling of the Associative Treaty in November 2013,
even though the schedule requires 2014.
Yerevan has enthusiastic supporters in this undertaking - first of
all Poland, which the President of Armenia visited recently. Poland
supervises the process of integration of post-Soviet states into the
EU. First of all, this concerns Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia - members of the Eastern Partnership. Thus,
the visit by Serge Sargsyan to Poland seems significant for prospects
of signing the Associative Treaty with the European Union.
Yerevan's desire to integrate into Europe and the dubious devotedness
of the Republic Party of Armenia to European values are based not on
strong will, or certain state interests. It is a kind of a chastity
belt put on the ruling party of Armenia by the West. The belt's rings
are recognitions of the results of almost all elections in Armenia
of recent years by Europe, when the republicans permanently won.
Today the rings are quite strong. This is confirmed by statements of
Western diplomats, who are beginning to call bread bread. The Western
diplomatic missions directly make Yerevan choose between European
integration and the Eurasian integration supported by Russia. The
fact that the West is showing its hand means that an initialling in
Vilnius is inevitable.
Statements that Armenia has chosen the European path and Yerevan and
Moscow have don't trust each other anymore are far from reality.
Armenian-Russian relations should be considered at several levels.
Tension is really present, but only in the mass media, expert circles,
and Internet blogs. It is absent at the official level. There is no
problem of a tough choice between Russia and Europe for Armenia,
considering the fact that Europe has no leverages of pressure on
Armenia, unlike Russia, which is militarily present in the region and
the country. Europe cannot provide security to Armenia which would
be similar to Russia's. So the Europeans have no such goals.
Thus, there is no choice between Russia and Europe in Armenia. Yerevan
will initial the Associative Treaty and the DCFTA Agreement with the
EU only because it is a part of a bigger game, greater internal and
foreign political processes, the big politics which is beyond relations
with Armenia. The majority of members of the Eastern Partnership,
including Armenia, are not ready for the program. It can lead to a
delay in signing.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/42946.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 23 2013
David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Prospects of initialing of the Associative Treaty and the DCFTA
Agreement between Armenia and the EU in November at the Vilnius summit
of the Eastern Partnership become real. At least, it is confirmed by
recent events in foreign and internal political life of Armenia.
The planned initialling of the documents has been discussed for a
long time. However, the first real step by made by Commissioner for
Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Stefan Fule, who said
that Brussels expected the initialling of two mentioned documents
with Armenia at the coming summit of the EU. However, Fule noted that
ahead of this Armenia had to conduct internal reforms which would be
a condition for initialling the Associative Treaty.
Considering the specific nature of Armenian policy, there is no
guarantee that the current Armenian authorities will manage to satisfy
European requirements which are necessary for the preliminary signing
of the Vilnius agreements not only till November, but at any time.
These are the requirements: democratization, protection of human
rights, involvement of civil society in the political life of the
country. The key problem is not that the Armenian authorities don't
have enough time. If Yerevan and Brussels had the political will,
the problem of initialling the document would be purely technical.
However, the Armenian leadership has already stated its intention
to achieve initialling of the Associative Treaty in November 2013,
even though the schedule requires 2014.
Yerevan has enthusiastic supporters in this undertaking - first of
all Poland, which the President of Armenia visited recently. Poland
supervises the process of integration of post-Soviet states into the
EU. First of all, this concerns Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia - members of the Eastern Partnership. Thus,
the visit by Serge Sargsyan to Poland seems significant for prospects
of signing the Associative Treaty with the European Union.
Yerevan's desire to integrate into Europe and the dubious devotedness
of the Republic Party of Armenia to European values are based not on
strong will, or certain state interests. It is a kind of a chastity
belt put on the ruling party of Armenia by the West. The belt's rings
are recognitions of the results of almost all elections in Armenia
of recent years by Europe, when the republicans permanently won.
Today the rings are quite strong. This is confirmed by statements of
Western diplomats, who are beginning to call bread bread. The Western
diplomatic missions directly make Yerevan choose between European
integration and the Eurasian integration supported by Russia. The
fact that the West is showing its hand means that an initialling in
Vilnius is inevitable.
Statements that Armenia has chosen the European path and Yerevan and
Moscow have don't trust each other anymore are far from reality.
Armenian-Russian relations should be considered at several levels.
Tension is really present, but only in the mass media, expert circles,
and Internet blogs. It is absent at the official level. There is no
problem of a tough choice between Russia and Europe for Armenia,
considering the fact that Europe has no leverages of pressure on
Armenia, unlike Russia, which is militarily present in the region and
the country. Europe cannot provide security to Armenia which would
be similar to Russia's. So the Europeans have no such goals.
Thus, there is no choice between Russia and Europe in Armenia. Yerevan
will initial the Associative Treaty and the DCFTA Agreement with the
EU only because it is a part of a bigger game, greater internal and
foreign political processes, the big politics which is beyond relations
with Armenia. The majority of members of the Eastern Partnership,
including Armenia, are not ready for the program. It can lead to a
delay in signing.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/42946.html