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THE CASPIAN IS CALM
All the previous visits of Vladimir Putin ended in failure and at best
resulted in "ordinary" agreements that Russia has with a number of
other countries in different regions.
The ruling elite in Azerbaijan feel their misery on the arena of the
Western community but are closely integrated with the West and would
no way fit the format of the Russian policy which would love to have
not only cooperation but also formation of a style of "loyalty".
Despite running out of resources of oil and obscure resources of gas,
Azerbaijan is a significant factor of the world energy policy and it
need not correct its foreign policy. At the same time, Azerbaijan has
always had a reason to expect radical steps from Russia to return
Karabakh under its control. Moreover, Russia has never ruled out
and has been sure that it will be able to return its former internal
borders in the Soviet Union.
The events of autumn 2008 and further processes led the Armenian
political leadership to the understanding that sooner or later Russia
will demand that Armenia part with Karabakh. This is fully in line
with Moscow's idea of its role in the southern strategic direction.
Azerbaijan cannot give up hopes for returning Nagorno-Karabakh with
the help of Russia's policy and every meeting of leaders of these
countries is an attempt to clarify this perspective.
Of course, Russia is now more concerned about transportation of gas
and partnership with Azerbaijan and resolution of these problems is
possible beyond the framework of consideration of the Karabakh issue.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan owes Russia a lot in regard to its defense.
The visits of Vladimir Putin's aides to Baku does not allow for
doubts that the main problems in the talks will be the geoeconomic
ones but at this stage Russia's intentions relating to Armenia will
be clarified. In addition, the Americans and Europeans are totally
convinced about the perspectives of Azerbaijani-Russian relations
because all the rest has been "grabbed" so the Caspian is expected
to be "calm", no significant changes are expected.
Russian-Iranian relations have more significance to processes and
developments in this region. Following the election of the new
president and his team of pragmatists, as well as with such an
important card as "Syria"in the hands of Russia, Moscow hopes to
overcome obvious aggravation of the Iranian-Russian relations.
For the first time over the past two decades, including the agreement
between A. Gore and V. Chernomyrdin, Iranians were never been so
disappointed of Russia's stance. Moscow's refusal to supply air
defense means is related not only to "insult" but also the need for
huge spending of Iran to compensate production of analogical weapons.
Hassan Rowhani who has focused on Iran's policy on Russia understands
well the goals and policy of Russia on Iran. Russia has always tried
to avoid building relations with Iran as an equal partner, which is
a repeated commission of the Soviet period.
For the time being, there is little information on how Iran will
proceed with its policy on Russia but one can state with more
confidence that Iran is trying to consider with Russia regional issues,
not issues relating to its nuclear program and different global issues.
Thus Iran would like to demonstrate which of the great powers has a
priority over others as a partner, i.e. it is China, the United States
and the EU but not Russia. In other words, Iran had drafted the policy
on Russia before the presidential election, it is absolutely clear.
Iran intends to resolve its main international problems with the West
and China. At the same time, if Russia accepts this format of priority
relations with Iran, having in his "luggage" offers on military
technical cooperation, it would be an interesting and proactive step
in regional politics, including in regard to Turkey and the Near East.
Now Hassan Rowhani needs a start in his foreign political activities
but the issue is whether the Iranians will prefer short-term goals
to long-term ones. One way or another, this time Iran will not hurry.
Unlike its neighbors, Iran has a good memory and fair intelligence
services.
In any case, if earlier Iran was ready to offer a lot of favors to
Russia, including in the North and South Caucasus and Central Asia,
now this topic is not even considered. Iran will not help Russia to
resist the growing influence of the United States and NATO.
In this regard, the state of things is good for Armenia because
Russia and Iran's focus on regional problems determines a favorable
arrangement of forces and interest in certain geopolitical
configurations.
Hence, the region does not expect major political changes, geopolitical
ones are expected but the question is who the actors and observers
will be. It is calm in the Caspian but will Armenia be able to make
use of this?
Igor Muradyan 12:03 26/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30552
All the previous visits of Vladimir Putin ended in failure and at best
resulted in "ordinary" agreements that Russia has with a number of
other countries in different regions.
The ruling elite in Azerbaijan feel their misery on the arena of the
Western community but are closely integrated with the West and would
no way fit the format of the Russian policy which would love to have
not only cooperation but also formation of a style of "loyalty".
Despite running out of resources of oil and obscure resources of gas,
Azerbaijan is a significant factor of the world energy policy and it
need not correct its foreign policy. At the same time, Azerbaijan has
always had a reason to expect radical steps from Russia to return
Karabakh under its control. Moreover, Russia has never ruled out
and has been sure that it will be able to return its former internal
borders in the Soviet Union.
The events of autumn 2008 and further processes led the Armenian
political leadership to the understanding that sooner or later Russia
will demand that Armenia part with Karabakh. This is fully in line
with Moscow's idea of its role in the southern strategic direction.
Azerbaijan cannot give up hopes for returning Nagorno-Karabakh with
the help of Russia's policy and every meeting of leaders of these
countries is an attempt to clarify this perspective.
Of course, Russia is now more concerned about transportation of gas
and partnership with Azerbaijan and resolution of these problems is
possible beyond the framework of consideration of the Karabakh issue.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan owes Russia a lot in regard to its defense.
The visits of Vladimir Putin's aides to Baku does not allow for
doubts that the main problems in the talks will be the geoeconomic
ones but at this stage Russia's intentions relating to Armenia will
be clarified. In addition, the Americans and Europeans are totally
convinced about the perspectives of Azerbaijani-Russian relations
because all the rest has been "grabbed" so the Caspian is expected
to be "calm", no significant changes are expected.
Russian-Iranian relations have more significance to processes and
developments in this region. Following the election of the new
president and his team of pragmatists, as well as with such an
important card as "Syria"in the hands of Russia, Moscow hopes to
overcome obvious aggravation of the Iranian-Russian relations.
For the first time over the past two decades, including the agreement
between A. Gore and V. Chernomyrdin, Iranians were never been so
disappointed of Russia's stance. Moscow's refusal to supply air
defense means is related not only to "insult" but also the need for
huge spending of Iran to compensate production of analogical weapons.
Hassan Rowhani who has focused on Iran's policy on Russia understands
well the goals and policy of Russia on Iran. Russia has always tried
to avoid building relations with Iran as an equal partner, which is
a repeated commission of the Soviet period.
For the time being, there is little information on how Iran will
proceed with its policy on Russia but one can state with more
confidence that Iran is trying to consider with Russia regional issues,
not issues relating to its nuclear program and different global issues.
Thus Iran would like to demonstrate which of the great powers has a
priority over others as a partner, i.e. it is China, the United States
and the EU but not Russia. In other words, Iran had drafted the policy
on Russia before the presidential election, it is absolutely clear.
Iran intends to resolve its main international problems with the West
and China. At the same time, if Russia accepts this format of priority
relations with Iran, having in his "luggage" offers on military
technical cooperation, it would be an interesting and proactive step
in regional politics, including in regard to Turkey and the Near East.
Now Hassan Rowhani needs a start in his foreign political activities
but the issue is whether the Iranians will prefer short-term goals
to long-term ones. One way or another, this time Iran will not hurry.
Unlike its neighbors, Iran has a good memory and fair intelligence
services.
In any case, if earlier Iran was ready to offer a lot of favors to
Russia, including in the North and South Caucasus and Central Asia,
now this topic is not even considered. Iran will not help Russia to
resist the growing influence of the United States and NATO.
In this regard, the state of things is good for Armenia because
Russia and Iran's focus on regional problems determines a favorable
arrangement of forces and interest in certain geopolitical
configurations.
Hence, the region does not expect major political changes, geopolitical
ones are expected but the question is who the actors and observers
will be. It is calm in the Caspian but will Armenia be able to make
use of this?
Igor Muradyan 12:03 26/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30552