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TURKEY'S OPTIONS IN SYRIA: STABLE KURDISH SELF-RULE OR JIHADIST ENCLAVE?
By YEREVAN SAEED
Rudaw
July 25 2013
Turkey'a unease over armed Kurdish fighters just across the border
in Syria has been turning into alarm, especially after the Kurdish
People's Defense Units (YPG) recently routed the radical Islamic
Jabhat al-Nusrah in Serekaniye, and recaptured the Kurdish border town.
Hours after the fierce fighting for Serekaniye (also known as Ras
al-Ayn), YPG fighters showed reporters passports seized from Islamist
guerrillas, noting they had traveled through Turkish airports on
different passports, including American and of several Arab countries.
It goes without saying that, from the beginning of the Syrian uprising
more than two years ago, Turkey's Islamist government -- the Justice
and Development Party (AKP) -- has facilitated the arrival of jihadist
fighters from across the Muslim world, and supplied them with weapons
and field hospitals.
Turkey's unease turned to alarm on July 19, when officials of the
dominant but controversial Democratic Union Party (PYD) announced
their intention of declaring autonomy.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu immediately reacted, saying:
"It's not possible to accept any de facto declaration of an autonomous
entity in Syria, and that could only lead to further crisis."
On the other hand, since the Kurdish fighters have been gaining
strength in Syria in the face of Arab rebels, the Turkish army has
been building up its presence with heavy weaponry at the border. Its
unmanned drones scan the area.
This is not the first time Turkey reacts to events in the
PYD-controlled areas of Syria.
Ankara is deeply suspicious over the PYD's close ties to the militant
and outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey. The PYD is
accused of surreptitious ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's
regime and holds sway over most of Syria's Kurdish regions.
Turkey has already warned that, although it did not react when Iraqi
Kurds declared autonomy, Ankara would not just stand by if Syrian
Kurds made a similar bid.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told journalists in
December that, "Should a similar development take place (in Syria),
we would react differently than how we did in the case of Iraq."
Though the Turkish military has beefed up border forces and gone on
alert in response to Kurdish developments in Syria, it did not react
similarly when fighters of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Al-Qaeda
affiliates controlled the area until several weeks ago.
It is important to ask if Turkey's fears of an autonomous Kurdish
region in Syria are really justified. Is it Turkey that poses a threat
to Syrian stability, or is it a Kurdish free enclave that threatens
the region?
The 20-year history and experience of Iraqi Kurdistan testifies that
an autonomous Kurdish region is not a threat to any of its neighbors.
On the contrary, it can be a stabilizing factor in the region.
Initially Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria were apprehensive of Iraqi
Kurdistan's self-rule. But now proven wrong, they should weigh
twice their suspicions about the Syrian Kurds and their ambitions
for autonomy.
If Kurds run their eastern areas in Syria, the world will have one
less jihadist enclave to worry about.
A stable Syrian Kurdistan could also give Turkey great economic
opportunities. It would be yet another market for Turkish exports.
Approximately 60 percent of Syria's oil is located in the Kurdish
areas. Ankara can access these fields in the future, the same way it
is doing in Iraqi Kurdistan.
At this time, it would be wiser if Syria's Kurds did not defer to
Turkish fears and continue to keep jihadist fighters at bay. Turkey's
threats to cross the border militarily could well be nothing but
a bluff.
A second course of action would be to engage Ankara diplomatically and
reassure the Turks that a Kurdish entity will not endanger Turkey's
national security or economic interests.
PYD leader Salih Muslim has already made some conciliatory statements
to Turkey. But he could do more. He could tell the Turks of the future
plans of the Kurds across the border.
On the other hand, leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan can and should mediate
between PYD and Ankara, to ensure that the two sides do not go to war.
Yerevan Saeed is a graduate of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
in Boston. He is a regular commentator on Kurdish and Middle East
affairs in the international media.
http://rudaw.net/english/opinion/250720131
By YEREVAN SAEED
Rudaw
July 25 2013
Turkey'a unease over armed Kurdish fighters just across the border
in Syria has been turning into alarm, especially after the Kurdish
People's Defense Units (YPG) recently routed the radical Islamic
Jabhat al-Nusrah in Serekaniye, and recaptured the Kurdish border town.
Hours after the fierce fighting for Serekaniye (also known as Ras
al-Ayn), YPG fighters showed reporters passports seized from Islamist
guerrillas, noting they had traveled through Turkish airports on
different passports, including American and of several Arab countries.
It goes without saying that, from the beginning of the Syrian uprising
more than two years ago, Turkey's Islamist government -- the Justice
and Development Party (AKP) -- has facilitated the arrival of jihadist
fighters from across the Muslim world, and supplied them with weapons
and field hospitals.
Turkey's unease turned to alarm on July 19, when officials of the
dominant but controversial Democratic Union Party (PYD) announced
their intention of declaring autonomy.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu immediately reacted, saying:
"It's not possible to accept any de facto declaration of an autonomous
entity in Syria, and that could only lead to further crisis."
On the other hand, since the Kurdish fighters have been gaining
strength in Syria in the face of Arab rebels, the Turkish army has
been building up its presence with heavy weaponry at the border. Its
unmanned drones scan the area.
This is not the first time Turkey reacts to events in the
PYD-controlled areas of Syria.
Ankara is deeply suspicious over the PYD's close ties to the militant
and outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey. The PYD is
accused of surreptitious ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's
regime and holds sway over most of Syria's Kurdish regions.
Turkey has already warned that, although it did not react when Iraqi
Kurds declared autonomy, Ankara would not just stand by if Syrian
Kurds made a similar bid.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told journalists in
December that, "Should a similar development take place (in Syria),
we would react differently than how we did in the case of Iraq."
Though the Turkish military has beefed up border forces and gone on
alert in response to Kurdish developments in Syria, it did not react
similarly when fighters of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Al-Qaeda
affiliates controlled the area until several weeks ago.
It is important to ask if Turkey's fears of an autonomous Kurdish
region in Syria are really justified. Is it Turkey that poses a threat
to Syrian stability, or is it a Kurdish free enclave that threatens
the region?
The 20-year history and experience of Iraqi Kurdistan testifies that
an autonomous Kurdish region is not a threat to any of its neighbors.
On the contrary, it can be a stabilizing factor in the region.
Initially Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria were apprehensive of Iraqi
Kurdistan's self-rule. But now proven wrong, they should weigh
twice their suspicions about the Syrian Kurds and their ambitions
for autonomy.
If Kurds run their eastern areas in Syria, the world will have one
less jihadist enclave to worry about.
A stable Syrian Kurdistan could also give Turkey great economic
opportunities. It would be yet another market for Turkish exports.
Approximately 60 percent of Syria's oil is located in the Kurdish
areas. Ankara can access these fields in the future, the same way it
is doing in Iraqi Kurdistan.
At this time, it would be wiser if Syria's Kurds did not defer to
Turkish fears and continue to keep jihadist fighters at bay. Turkey's
threats to cross the border militarily could well be nothing but
a bluff.
A second course of action would be to engage Ankara diplomatically and
reassure the Turks that a Kurdish entity will not endanger Turkey's
national security or economic interests.
PYD leader Salih Muslim has already made some conciliatory statements
to Turkey. But he could do more. He could tell the Turks of the future
plans of the Kurds across the border.
On the other hand, leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan can and should mediate
between PYD and Ankara, to ensure that the two sides do not go to war.
Yerevan Saeed is a graduate of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
in Boston. He is a regular commentator on Kurdish and Middle East
affairs in the international media.
http://rudaw.net/english/opinion/250720131