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The Two NKs: North Korea And Nagorno-Karabakh

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  • The Two NKs: North Korea And Nagorno-Karabakh

    THE TWO NKS: NORTH KOREA AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH

    13:51 25.07.13

    By Thomas de Waal

    Carnegie Endowment Foundation e Two NKs

    When you mention the acronym "NK," it is interesting to hear what
    the other person thinks you are referring to. For there are two NKs
    at either end of the Asian land mass-North Korea and Nagorny Karabakh.

    Of course, North Korea grabs the headlines for good reasons. A
    population of 75 million in both Koreas, fears over a nuclear
    escalation, the bellicose threats by the North Korean leadership-all
    of that focuses minds on the East Asian NK as a potential flashpoint.

    But there are some instructive parallels with the Caucasian NK. Along
    with Kashmir's Line of Control, North Korea and Nagorno Karabakh
    surely comprise the three most militarized borders in the world. All
    of them are disputed lines on the map that mark a truce rather than
    a political settlement.

    Of these, Karabakh's Line of Contact (almost the same terminology as
    in Kashmir) is the most ignored. Yet it is a fearsome scar on the map,
    more than 200 km long, with World-War-I-style trenches on either side,
    bristling with heavy weaponry.

    Military experts suggest that the Armenian (including Karabakh
    Armenian) and Azerbaijani militaries each have between 65,000 and
    70,000 active troops, of whom about a third are probably stationed
    on the Line of Contact at any one time.

    The risk of new fighting over Karabakh is still relatively low.

    Azerbaijan, the losing side in the conflict of the 1990s and therefore
    the party most likely to go back to war, has too much to lose by
    choosing the military option.

    But the lesson of conflicts from August 1914 to August 2008 is
    that too many of them begin by miscalculation. The main issue in
    both places is lack of communication. There is no telephone contact
    between commanders across the Line of Contact-just as there is none
    across the 38th Parallel. That way, a small military incident could
    escalate into a larger one.

    What could that incident be? There is one obvious reason to worry.

    This is what could happen if the newly rebuilt airport in Karabakh
    opens. The Armenian side says it is ready to fly planes between
    Yerevan and Karabakh. The Azerbaijanis say this would break the
    Chicago Convention and have threatened (unspecified) retaliation if
    that happens. So far, the Armenians have acceded to international
    pressure and done nothing. But sooner or later they are likely to
    make a flight. Then, given the complete lack of contact and trust
    between the two sides, things could get dangerous.

    Another lesson here is that maybe the most dangerous conflict is the
    one you were not anticipating.

    Armenian News - Tert.am


    From: Baghdasarian
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