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Today's Zaman, Turkey
July 27 2013
The rise and fall of Turkey's neighborhood policy
AMANDA PAUL
These days it has become increasingly popular to assert that Turkey is
surrounded by enemies, that Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu's `zero
problems with neighbors' policy bombed.
Turkey is located in a volatile and difficult region, its neighbors
are not Switzerland or Finland, but unpredictable states with
significant democratic and socio-economic deficits. Of its eight
direct neighbors, only two (Greece and Bulgaria) are democracies.
While there are still some problems, one can say that Turkey's north,
western and eastern neighbors are fairly predictable. The biggest risk
is renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The real headache is down south: Iran, Iraq and Syria, and their
explosive neighborhoods where leaderships seem to offer zero, apart
from problems and have a zero-sum approach to solving them.
Over the past few years, Turkey's neighborhood policy has been on a
roller-coaster ride. In 2009, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an
declared that `we are not a country surrounded by enemies anymore.'
After years of hostile relations with most neighbors, Ankara took
steps to open a new chapter and become a peace-maker rather than an
antagonist. Closed doors were opened: first to business, which
ultimately led to closer political ties. Turkey's Euro-Atlantic
partners welcomed this change. US President Barak Obama was hardly off
the telephone to ErdoÄ?an, with Turkey becoming a key component in
Obama's `leading from behind' foreign policy. Ditto for the EU, with
DavutoÄ?lu becoming a frequent visitor to the office of EU Foreign
Policy Chief Catherine Ashton. While there were problems, the most
serious being the rupture of relations with Israel, Turkey was
promoted as a regional `model.' Having values that are much more
closely aligned to those of the West than the Arab world, Turkey is
seen as unique.
Buoyed by its dynamic economy, more than a decade of political
stability and its popularity among ordinary Arabs, Turkey tried to
take on the role of regional gladiator. As Vali Nasr cites in his book
`Indispensable Nation,' Turkey tended to view its self as the `elder
democratic brother who wished to guide the Arab world to greater
stability and prosperity.' Rather like the Pied Piper of Hamlyn,
Ankara seemed to dream of leading the masses. Today this bubble has
burst. As the Arab Awakening kicked off and regional dynamics began to
shift, Turkey struggled to keep up with the new realities. On Syria,
Turkey's policy was interpreted as Ankara supporting sectarian
policies, contributing to the increasing Shiite-Sunni battle for power
and bringing increased security threats to the country. Syria remains
a significant threat to Turkey. Ankara's growing conflict with Syrian
Kurds, with Turkey declaring that it will not tolerate an autonomous
Kurdish entity emerging on its borders making the situation worse. By
taking such a hostile approach, Turkey is shooting itself in the foot
being left with another group it cannot deal with.
With Turkey continuing to have antagonistic relations with Iraq and
unhappy about talking to the coup-induced government in Egypt, rather
paradoxically Turkey closest friend in this region today is its old
foe the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq. Iran, of course,
remains neither friend nor foe, although the new president has
declared an interest to strengthen ties.
While Turkey seems to have become increasingly more of a bystander
than a significant actor, at the same time Ankara's economic and
political trajectory continues to have importance for its region and
the transatlantic alliance and will, I believe, bounce back. Both
economically and politically, Turkey simply cannot afford to be on bad
terms with a country like Egypt, which is the regional lynchpin.
Perhaps President Abdullah Gül's message to interim President Adly
Mansour congratulating Egypt's national day was a sign of toning down
its strong stance against the new administration in Cairo.
No doubt a foreign policy shake-up could be useful. Yet while there
has been chatter about DavutoÄ?lu leaving, it seems unlikely. It would
have an adverse effect on ErdoÄ?an, but given that ErdoÄ?an would remain
a key element in foreign policy-making, I am not sure it would make
such a difference anyway.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=322017
July 27 2013
The rise and fall of Turkey's neighborhood policy
AMANDA PAUL
These days it has become increasingly popular to assert that Turkey is
surrounded by enemies, that Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu's `zero
problems with neighbors' policy bombed.
Turkey is located in a volatile and difficult region, its neighbors
are not Switzerland or Finland, but unpredictable states with
significant democratic and socio-economic deficits. Of its eight
direct neighbors, only two (Greece and Bulgaria) are democracies.
While there are still some problems, one can say that Turkey's north,
western and eastern neighbors are fairly predictable. The biggest risk
is renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The real headache is down south: Iran, Iraq and Syria, and their
explosive neighborhoods where leaderships seem to offer zero, apart
from problems and have a zero-sum approach to solving them.
Over the past few years, Turkey's neighborhood policy has been on a
roller-coaster ride. In 2009, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an
declared that `we are not a country surrounded by enemies anymore.'
After years of hostile relations with most neighbors, Ankara took
steps to open a new chapter and become a peace-maker rather than an
antagonist. Closed doors were opened: first to business, which
ultimately led to closer political ties. Turkey's Euro-Atlantic
partners welcomed this change. US President Barak Obama was hardly off
the telephone to ErdoÄ?an, with Turkey becoming a key component in
Obama's `leading from behind' foreign policy. Ditto for the EU, with
DavutoÄ?lu becoming a frequent visitor to the office of EU Foreign
Policy Chief Catherine Ashton. While there were problems, the most
serious being the rupture of relations with Israel, Turkey was
promoted as a regional `model.' Having values that are much more
closely aligned to those of the West than the Arab world, Turkey is
seen as unique.
Buoyed by its dynamic economy, more than a decade of political
stability and its popularity among ordinary Arabs, Turkey tried to
take on the role of regional gladiator. As Vali Nasr cites in his book
`Indispensable Nation,' Turkey tended to view its self as the `elder
democratic brother who wished to guide the Arab world to greater
stability and prosperity.' Rather like the Pied Piper of Hamlyn,
Ankara seemed to dream of leading the masses. Today this bubble has
burst. As the Arab Awakening kicked off and regional dynamics began to
shift, Turkey struggled to keep up with the new realities. On Syria,
Turkey's policy was interpreted as Ankara supporting sectarian
policies, contributing to the increasing Shiite-Sunni battle for power
and bringing increased security threats to the country. Syria remains
a significant threat to Turkey. Ankara's growing conflict with Syrian
Kurds, with Turkey declaring that it will not tolerate an autonomous
Kurdish entity emerging on its borders making the situation worse. By
taking such a hostile approach, Turkey is shooting itself in the foot
being left with another group it cannot deal with.
With Turkey continuing to have antagonistic relations with Iraq and
unhappy about talking to the coup-induced government in Egypt, rather
paradoxically Turkey closest friend in this region today is its old
foe the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq. Iran, of course,
remains neither friend nor foe, although the new president has
declared an interest to strengthen ties.
While Turkey seems to have become increasingly more of a bystander
than a significant actor, at the same time Ankara's economic and
political trajectory continues to have importance for its region and
the transatlantic alliance and will, I believe, bounce back. Both
economically and politically, Turkey simply cannot afford to be on bad
terms with a country like Egypt, which is the regional lynchpin.
Perhaps President Abdullah Gül's message to interim President Adly
Mansour congratulating Egypt's national day was a sign of toning down
its strong stance against the new administration in Cairo.
No doubt a foreign policy shake-up could be useful. Yet while there
has been chatter about DavutoÄ?lu leaving, it seems unlikely. It would
have an adverse effect on ErdoÄ?an, but given that ErdoÄ?an would remain
a key element in foreign policy-making, I am not sure it would make
such a difference anyway.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=322017