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GLOOMY FORECAST: INCREASE OF GAS TARIFFS TOGETHER WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY COULD LEAD TO HIGHER RATES OF MIGRATION
SOCIETY | 31.05.13 | 16:00
Photolure
By JULIA HAKOBYAN
ArmeniaNow Deputy Editor
The expected increase in gas tariffs has become one of the most
discussed issues in the Armenian society, as in May the ArmRusGasProm
has applied to the Armenian government, offering a 64 percent rise
of natural gas tariffs. (From current $316 to $531 per 10,000 cubic
meters)
The oppositional representatives warn that the increased gas tariffs
will cause a rise of cost of living in the country, where half of the
population endure a hand to mouth existence and which eventually will
lead to a new wave of migration. (The average family pays at least
$80 monthly (for heating an apartment of 70 sq.m), while small and
medium-size producers, whose businesses are directly related to gas
consumption, such as farmers, say such a major increase will leave
them bankrupt as they won't be able to heat hothouses.
At a press conference last week, the executive director of the Hothouse
Association of Armenia Poghos Gevorgyan said that gas tariffs increases
would be the "nail in the coffin" of the greenhouse production.
Gevorgyan noted that expenses for consuming natural gas grew, in fact,
long before the expected increase, as the supplied gas is of poor
quality and farmers are forced to consume more gas than they estimated
to heat the greenhouses. The association has monitored the volume of
gas consumed by farmers and found that over the past two years, during
the heating season of greenhouses, farmers consumed 30 percent more
gas than in previous years, yet in those years the winter was warmer
than in previous. Some farmers are skeptical whether they were really
using Russian gas, or it was Iranian gas, which has a lower intensity.
"The increase of gas tariffs will leave little choice for the villagers
- to cut down the forests and gardens, or to leave the country,
"said Gevorgyan.
The emigration rate in Armenia, one of the targets of opposition's
critics, is steadily growing in the country during the last couple
of years, the tendency, which is proved also by official figures.
According to the National Statistical Service report published last
April, in January-March 2013 , 259 210 left Armenia, 223 710 of them
returned. The negative balance is 35,000, which is by 10,000 more
comparing the same period last year.
The government, which routinely downplays the significance of the
migration issue, however, has shown some attempts in coping with it.
One such attempt was the closure in Armenia of the Russian migration
program "Compatriots", under which citizens of Armenia, as well as
other post-Soviet republics are enabled to become permanent residents
in one of the 38 remote provinces of the Russian Federation. (New
citizens get jobs in Russia, a lump sum government payment, favorable
conditions for purchasing property)
The Russian program, which aims to replenish the country's dwindling
working-age population, was largely criticized in Armenia soon after
it was launched in 2007.
Until recently the government showed no concern over the program,
saying that there wasn't any serious outflow of the population.
According to the data of the Armenian Migration Service, during the
past four years the "Compatriots" program in Armenia had a total
of 26,000 applicants, 1,500 of whom have given up their Armenian
citizenship and moved to live in Russia.
However last November Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan for the first
time said that the realization of thе Russian program that effectively
encourages outward migration is unacceptable for Armenia. A few months
later, in April, the program was stopped.
Thus, the departure from Armenia through "Compatriots" has been limited
by administrative levers. But it's obvious that the closure of one
of the official ways for migration cannot stop the disturbing trend,
even if it manages to reduce it to a certain extent.
Despite the hard socio-economic situation in the country, the
government is optimistic about the existing economic trends. On May
29, the prime minister introduced in the Parliament a report on the
2012 state budget realization, noting that the high rates of economic
growth in 2012 have been registered due to the targeted industrial
policy of the government.
According to the prime-minister in 2012 Armenia saw a 7.2 percent of
economic growth, to which contributed all spheres of the economy.
Sargsyan pointed out that in the end of 2012 the share of industry
in GDP was 17.2 percent, a progress comparing to 13.3 percent share
in 2008, before the global economic crisis. "This figure shows that
diversification of the economy in favor of more productive sectors
took place in Armenia."
Hrant Bagratyan, the ex-presidential candidate and the president of
the "Liberty" party, called Sargsyan's bluff regarding the information
on 7.2 percent economic growth. "There is a virtual Armenia existing
on paper which does not correspond to reality," says Bagratyan,
Armenia's prime minister 1993-1996. "Economic growth reached a maximum
of 3.8 percent in 2012, why is the figure inflated twice? Because the
president promised economic growth of 7 percent... It just cannot be
truth. I am ready to meet with Tigran Sargsyan and prove it"
SOCIETY | 31.05.13 | 16:00
Photolure
By JULIA HAKOBYAN
ArmeniaNow Deputy Editor
The expected increase in gas tariffs has become one of the most
discussed issues in the Armenian society, as in May the ArmRusGasProm
has applied to the Armenian government, offering a 64 percent rise
of natural gas tariffs. (From current $316 to $531 per 10,000 cubic
meters)
The oppositional representatives warn that the increased gas tariffs
will cause a rise of cost of living in the country, where half of the
population endure a hand to mouth existence and which eventually will
lead to a new wave of migration. (The average family pays at least
$80 monthly (for heating an apartment of 70 sq.m), while small and
medium-size producers, whose businesses are directly related to gas
consumption, such as farmers, say such a major increase will leave
them bankrupt as they won't be able to heat hothouses.
At a press conference last week, the executive director of the Hothouse
Association of Armenia Poghos Gevorgyan said that gas tariffs increases
would be the "nail in the coffin" of the greenhouse production.
Gevorgyan noted that expenses for consuming natural gas grew, in fact,
long before the expected increase, as the supplied gas is of poor
quality and farmers are forced to consume more gas than they estimated
to heat the greenhouses. The association has monitored the volume of
gas consumed by farmers and found that over the past two years, during
the heating season of greenhouses, farmers consumed 30 percent more
gas than in previous years, yet in those years the winter was warmer
than in previous. Some farmers are skeptical whether they were really
using Russian gas, or it was Iranian gas, which has a lower intensity.
"The increase of gas tariffs will leave little choice for the villagers
- to cut down the forests and gardens, or to leave the country,
"said Gevorgyan.
The emigration rate in Armenia, one of the targets of opposition's
critics, is steadily growing in the country during the last couple
of years, the tendency, which is proved also by official figures.
According to the National Statistical Service report published last
April, in January-March 2013 , 259 210 left Armenia, 223 710 of them
returned. The negative balance is 35,000, which is by 10,000 more
comparing the same period last year.
The government, which routinely downplays the significance of the
migration issue, however, has shown some attempts in coping with it.
One such attempt was the closure in Armenia of the Russian migration
program "Compatriots", under which citizens of Armenia, as well as
other post-Soviet republics are enabled to become permanent residents
in one of the 38 remote provinces of the Russian Federation. (New
citizens get jobs in Russia, a lump sum government payment, favorable
conditions for purchasing property)
The Russian program, which aims to replenish the country's dwindling
working-age population, was largely criticized in Armenia soon after
it was launched in 2007.
Until recently the government showed no concern over the program,
saying that there wasn't any serious outflow of the population.
According to the data of the Armenian Migration Service, during the
past four years the "Compatriots" program in Armenia had a total
of 26,000 applicants, 1,500 of whom have given up their Armenian
citizenship and moved to live in Russia.
However last November Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan for the first
time said that the realization of thе Russian program that effectively
encourages outward migration is unacceptable for Armenia. A few months
later, in April, the program was stopped.
Thus, the departure from Armenia through "Compatriots" has been limited
by administrative levers. But it's obvious that the closure of one
of the official ways for migration cannot stop the disturbing trend,
even if it manages to reduce it to a certain extent.
Despite the hard socio-economic situation in the country, the
government is optimistic about the existing economic trends. On May
29, the prime minister introduced in the Parliament a report on the
2012 state budget realization, noting that the high rates of economic
growth in 2012 have been registered due to the targeted industrial
policy of the government.
According to the prime-minister in 2012 Armenia saw a 7.2 percent of
economic growth, to which contributed all spheres of the economy.
Sargsyan pointed out that in the end of 2012 the share of industry
in GDP was 17.2 percent, a progress comparing to 13.3 percent share
in 2008, before the global economic crisis. "This figure shows that
diversification of the economy in favor of more productive sectors
took place in Armenia."
Hrant Bagratyan, the ex-presidential candidate and the president of
the "Liberty" party, called Sargsyan's bluff regarding the information
on 7.2 percent economic growth. "There is a virtual Armenia existing
on paper which does not correspond to reality," says Bagratyan,
Armenia's prime minister 1993-1996. "Economic growth reached a maximum
of 3.8 percent in 2012, why is the figure inflated twice? Because the
president promised economic growth of 7 percent... It just cannot be
truth. I am ready to meet with Tigran Sargsyan and prove it"