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WILL RUSSIA BE DEVOURED BY THE TURKISH-AZERI ALLIANCE?
May 30 2013
The political scientist sees "hostile elements" in the attitude of
the Russian Federation President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan didn't
attend the unofficial meeting of the leaders of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries. By the way, it was the first time
the President of Armenia had ever failed to attend such a high-level
event. Yerevan's explanation was interesting: the President of the
Republic of Armenia will not leave for Bishkek on May 28 in order
to attend the events dedicated to Republic Day. Stepan Grigoryan,
a political scientist and the director of the Analytical Center on
Globalization and Regional Cooperation, thinks that the Armenian
side's explanation is formally convincing. "It was a national holiday
in Armenia, very important for us, and it is good that the president
stayed in Armenia." However, taking into account Armenia's relations
with Russia and past experience that all Armenian Presidents have
always attended all those events which were attended by the Russian
President, a question arises what the reason for such an attitude
could be. Stepan Grigoryan said in this regard: "The holiday was a
good excuse not to go, but two problems, I think, underlie this kind
of decision. The first reason is the increase in gas prices by a high
percentage, which has caused a big fuss in Armenia and has obviously
weakened our government's position. The second reason is Lavrov's
statement." Let us remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
stated at a joint press conference with the Azeri Foreign Minister
the other day: "Certainly, the status-quo is unacceptable; moreover,
it is unacceptable for everyone - first of all, for Azerbaijan, Armenia
and those who live in Nagorno-Karabakh. I am quite sure of that. The
status-quo means not only failure to solve the issue of the Azeri
territories' return but also Armenia's economic blockade. That is the
reason why there is no need to convince anyone in the unacceptability
of maintaining that situation." By the way, the political scientist
even sees "hostile elements" in this statement made by Lavrov,
in particular in the phrase "the Azeri territories' return," since
neither the US nor Europe nor Iran, not even Turkey, have talked
much about this issue recently. "It is obvious that both the increase
in gas prices and Lavrov's statement were received painfully by the
Armenian government, and it has had its manifestation. Yes, it is not
a demarche, since it is obvious that there is a formal explanation,
but it is obvious that these two issues had an indirect effect on the
Armenian President's attitude," our interlocutor said. By the way,
the President of the Republic of Armenia didn't attend the unofficial
conference of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) that commenced
in Astana yesterday either. The President of Belarus didn't attend it
either. Our interlocutor interprets the Armenian President's failure
to attend that conference as follows: "Armenia is not a member of
the EurAsEC, it is a member of the CSTO; it suggests a different
approach. In the second case, it is easier to explain; Armenia enjoys
the status of an observer at that organization. Therefore, there is
an answer here too.
However, this also stems from the previous problem. I am sure that
the Russian Federation will demand answers from the leaders of the
Eastern Partnership countries at both informal conferences, and
the President of Armenia wouldn't like those discussions to take
place against the background of the above-mentioned problems." Let
us remind that there is an intention to sign Association Agreements
with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and Georgia within the framework of
the Eastern Partnership Project by the end of the year, at the Vilnius
Summit. Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia have no connections with either
the CSTO or the EurAsEC; thus, they have no problem. Belarus, though,
is a member of the EurAsEC, but it is not active in the projects of
the Eastern Partnership, and actual relations are not developed. So the
Russian Federation would have demanded answers mostly from Armenia. We
inquired how probable it was that in the current situation, the Russian
Federation would take a stiffer stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
particularly given the fact that the Western wing also seemed to be
inclined to invigorate the Karabakh conflict settlement process.
Jean-Claude Mignon, the President of the PACE, who was on an official
visit to Azerbaijan earlier this week, stated that the year 2013 might
be a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, meaning
the fact that in 2013-2014, Armenia and Azerbaijan would take turns
in the presidency of the PACE. In the European official's opinion,
it is a brilliant opportunity to take serious steps to resolve the
Karabakh issue. Earlier Sabine Freizer, the Director of the Europe
Program, International Crisis Group, had said that the OSCE Minsk
Group's mandate had expired, and that new options of the Karabakh
settlement had to be found. "It is not ruled out that there will
be invigoration in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, and it will be not
so advantageous for the Armenian sides. It is very probable that
the very Russian Federation will move in that direction. However,
there is one thing about which I want to warn the Russian side;
if Armenia, to put it bluntly, becomes weaker in the region with
regard to the Karabakh issue or as a result of competition, we
can congratulate Russia. The Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will force
Russia out of the region completely. If the Russian Federation makes
those mistakes, yes, Armenia will become weaker, but we can already
congratulate the Russian Federation, even officially, on the victory
of the Turkish-Azeri alliance. Unfortunately, it is visible that the
Russian Federation has taken such an attitude, since it takes steps
that are not in its strategic interests. If the Russian Federation
intends to take this path, we cannot help them." Our interlocutor
thinks that in this situation, Yerevan should continue to be active
in the Eastern Partnership, and society should support the government,
since that project will be very useful for Armenia. NELLY GRIGORYAN
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/05/30/154583/
© 1998 - 2013 Aravot - News from Armenia
May 30 2013
The political scientist sees "hostile elements" in the attitude of
the Russian Federation President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan didn't
attend the unofficial meeting of the leaders of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries. By the way, it was the first time
the President of Armenia had ever failed to attend such a high-level
event. Yerevan's explanation was interesting: the President of the
Republic of Armenia will not leave for Bishkek on May 28 in order
to attend the events dedicated to Republic Day. Stepan Grigoryan,
a political scientist and the director of the Analytical Center on
Globalization and Regional Cooperation, thinks that the Armenian
side's explanation is formally convincing. "It was a national holiday
in Armenia, very important for us, and it is good that the president
stayed in Armenia." However, taking into account Armenia's relations
with Russia and past experience that all Armenian Presidents have
always attended all those events which were attended by the Russian
President, a question arises what the reason for such an attitude
could be. Stepan Grigoryan said in this regard: "The holiday was a
good excuse not to go, but two problems, I think, underlie this kind
of decision. The first reason is the increase in gas prices by a high
percentage, which has caused a big fuss in Armenia and has obviously
weakened our government's position. The second reason is Lavrov's
statement." Let us remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
stated at a joint press conference with the Azeri Foreign Minister
the other day: "Certainly, the status-quo is unacceptable; moreover,
it is unacceptable for everyone - first of all, for Azerbaijan, Armenia
and those who live in Nagorno-Karabakh. I am quite sure of that. The
status-quo means not only failure to solve the issue of the Azeri
territories' return but also Armenia's economic blockade. That is the
reason why there is no need to convince anyone in the unacceptability
of maintaining that situation." By the way, the political scientist
even sees "hostile elements" in this statement made by Lavrov,
in particular in the phrase "the Azeri territories' return," since
neither the US nor Europe nor Iran, not even Turkey, have talked
much about this issue recently. "It is obvious that both the increase
in gas prices and Lavrov's statement were received painfully by the
Armenian government, and it has had its manifestation. Yes, it is not
a demarche, since it is obvious that there is a formal explanation,
but it is obvious that these two issues had an indirect effect on the
Armenian President's attitude," our interlocutor said. By the way,
the President of the Republic of Armenia didn't attend the unofficial
conference of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) that commenced
in Astana yesterday either. The President of Belarus didn't attend it
either. Our interlocutor interprets the Armenian President's failure
to attend that conference as follows: "Armenia is not a member of
the EurAsEC, it is a member of the CSTO; it suggests a different
approach. In the second case, it is easier to explain; Armenia enjoys
the status of an observer at that organization. Therefore, there is
an answer here too.
However, this also stems from the previous problem. I am sure that
the Russian Federation will demand answers from the leaders of the
Eastern Partnership countries at both informal conferences, and
the President of Armenia wouldn't like those discussions to take
place against the background of the above-mentioned problems." Let
us remind that there is an intention to sign Association Agreements
with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and Georgia within the framework of
the Eastern Partnership Project by the end of the year, at the Vilnius
Summit. Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia have no connections with either
the CSTO or the EurAsEC; thus, they have no problem. Belarus, though,
is a member of the EurAsEC, but it is not active in the projects of
the Eastern Partnership, and actual relations are not developed. So the
Russian Federation would have demanded answers mostly from Armenia. We
inquired how probable it was that in the current situation, the Russian
Federation would take a stiffer stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
particularly given the fact that the Western wing also seemed to be
inclined to invigorate the Karabakh conflict settlement process.
Jean-Claude Mignon, the President of the PACE, who was on an official
visit to Azerbaijan earlier this week, stated that the year 2013 might
be a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, meaning
the fact that in 2013-2014, Armenia and Azerbaijan would take turns
in the presidency of the PACE. In the European official's opinion,
it is a brilliant opportunity to take serious steps to resolve the
Karabakh issue. Earlier Sabine Freizer, the Director of the Europe
Program, International Crisis Group, had said that the OSCE Minsk
Group's mandate had expired, and that new options of the Karabakh
settlement had to be found. "It is not ruled out that there will
be invigoration in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, and it will be not
so advantageous for the Armenian sides. It is very probable that
the very Russian Federation will move in that direction. However,
there is one thing about which I want to warn the Russian side;
if Armenia, to put it bluntly, becomes weaker in the region with
regard to the Karabakh issue or as a result of competition, we
can congratulate Russia. The Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will force
Russia out of the region completely. If the Russian Federation makes
those mistakes, yes, Armenia will become weaker, but we can already
congratulate the Russian Federation, even officially, on the victory
of the Turkish-Azeri alliance. Unfortunately, it is visible that the
Russian Federation has taken such an attitude, since it takes steps
that are not in its strategic interests. If the Russian Federation
intends to take this path, we cannot help them." Our interlocutor
thinks that in this situation, Yerevan should continue to be active
in the Eastern Partnership, and society should support the government,
since that project will be very useful for Armenia. NELLY GRIGORYAN
Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2013/05/30/154583/
© 1998 - 2013 Aravot - News from Armenia