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REVOLT IN TURKEY: ERDOGAN'S GRIP ON POWER IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
By Ozlem Gezer, Maximilian Popp and Oliver Trenkamp
AP/dpa Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to the
media in Istanbul on June 3.
For a decade, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had a tight grip
on power. But it suddenly looks to be weakening. Thousands have taken
to the streets across the country and the threats to Erdogan's rule
are many. His reaction has revealed him to be hopelessly disconnected.
The rooftops of Istanbul can be seen in the background and next to
them is a gigantic image of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey's powerful
prime minister is watching over the city -- and is also monitoring
the work of the political party he controls. At least that seems to
be the message of the image, which can be found in a conference room
at the headquarters of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP).
These days, though, Istanbul is producing images that carry a
distinctly different meaning -- images of violent protests against
the vagaries of Erdogan's rule. And it is beginning to look as though
the prime minister, the most powerful leader Turkey has seen since
the days of modern Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, might be
losing control.
As recently as mid-May, Erdogan boasted during an appearance at the
Brookings Institute in Washington D.C. of the $29 billion airport
his government was planning to build in Istanbul. "Turkey no longer
talks about the world," he said. "The world talks about Turkey."
Just two weeks later, he appears to have been right -- just not quite
in the way he had anticipated. The world is looking at Turkey and
speaking of the violence with which Turkish police are assaulting
demonstrators at dozens of marches across the country. Increasingly,
Erdogan is looking like an autocratic ruler whose people are no longer
willing to tolerate him.
For years, Erdogan seemed untouchable and, at least until the recent
demonstrations began, was the most popular politician in the country.
He entered office amid pledges to reform the country and introduce even
more democratic freedoms. In his gruff dealings with foreign powers,
he gave Turkey a new kind of confidence. He broke the grip on power
held by the country's old elite, he kick-started the economy and he
calmed the conflict with the country's Kurdish minority.
Democracy Lost
But one thing got lost in the shuffle: Democracy. Success made Erdogan
even more power-hungry, thin-skinned and susceptible to criticism.
Indeed, he began governing in the same autocratic style for which he
had bitterly criticized his predecessors. And now, he is faced with
significant dangers to his power from several quarters.
The biggest danger facing the Turkish premier is his own
high-handedness. Though he said on Monday that he understood the
message being sent by the protesters, there is little evidence
that is true. Indeed, his response thus far has shown the degree to
which he has become distanced from realities in his country. With
hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets, Erdogan has
opted for confrontation rather than de-escalation. On Monday morning,
he threatened that he would be unable to keep the 50 percent of Turks
who voted for him from taking to the streets themselves. Critics see
the comment as nothing less than a threat of civil war.
He said that he won't allow "a handful of plunderers" to dictate
policy. He also branded the marches as being ideological and said that
they have been "manipulated by the opposition." Twitter, he said, is
the "greatest threat to the society." Such sentiments are reminiscent
of those Arab dictators who were overthrown in the Arab Spring of 2011.
Erdogan has recently shown a complete inability to gauge the
anger of the country's Kemalists. He recently offended the secular
followers of Ataturk with comments regarding a law aiming to reduce
the consumption of alcohol. During a party meeting, Erdogan painted
a rhetorical picture of an alcoholic populace: He spoke of police
who continually find empty bottles in people's cars, of husbands who
beat their wives and of fathers who are a poor influence due to their
consumption of beer.
Most pointedly, however, he asked if Turkey wanted to follow a law
passed by two drunks or the law of God. Since then, the country
has been filled with speculation as to who Erdogan may have been
referring to. Many believe it was an attack on Ataturk and his Prime
Minister Ismet Inonu, who were in office when the ban on alcohol in
the country was lifted in 1926. Furthermore, Ataturk is rumored to
have died from cirrhosis of the liver. As such, Erdogan's comments
are seen as an attack on a national hero.
Diverse Protests
But it isn't just the Kemalists who are now venting their rage at the
Turkish prime minister. Demonstrations have been reported in more than
40 cities, and they are drawing more than students and intellectuals.
Families with children, women in headscarves, men in suits, hipsters
in sneakers, pharmacists, tea-house proprietors -- all are taking to
the streets to register their displeasure.
Thus far, no opposition party has sought to claim the protests as
its own. There have been no party flags, no party slogans and no
prominent party functionaries to be seen. Kemalists and communists
have demonstrated side-by-side with liberals and secularists. Simply
calling them all "marauders and extremists," as Erdogan has sought
to do, will not be enough.
Another threat may also be lurking. In Istanbul, people have begun
whispering that the military is distributing gasmasks -- but to the
demonstrators rather than to the police. The message is clear: The
military supports the protests.
The story is certainly consistent with the Turkish military's
traditional role in society. The generals have long seen themselves as
protectors of Ataturk's legacy and as protectors of a secular Turkey.
Indeed, the military has staged three putsches in its history to
guarantee Kemalist values: in 1960, in 1971 and again in 1980.
Erdogan, to be sure, has done his best to reduce the military's power.
He has removed some officers and had others locked away, convicted
of conspiracy. It is difficult to predict how the military might
now react to the protests. But Erdogan certainly cannot rely on them
remaining in their barracks.
Visit to Tunisia
Even within his own party, the AKP, Erdogan's rule has become
contentious. Turkish President Abdullah Gul, likewise of the AKP,
has been careful to distance himself from Erdogan's comments over the
weekend that citizens should express their opinions at the ballot box.
Gul responded that "democracy doesn't just mean casting a ballot."
Turkish law prohibits Erdogan from running for another term. In
response, however, he appears to be leaning toward the model followed
by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdogan is currently seeking to
increase the powers of the Turkish presidency, preparatory to taking
over the position himself in 2014. Not everyone in the AKP is behind
the plan and speculation of an internal power struggle is rife.
On Monday morning, after a weekend full of some of the most intense
protests Turkey has seen, Erdogan spoke yet again, saying he suspects
that "foreign powers" are behind the demonstrations and that Turkish
intelligence is investigating. "It is not possible to reveal their
names, but we will have meetings with their heads," Erdogan said,
according to the English version of the Turkish daily Hurriyet. The
strategy is transparent: The prime minister is doing all he can to
portray the protests as an attack on Turkey.
Erdogan is hoping that will be enough to keep the situation under
control for now. This week he embarks on a trip through North Africa.
And, after a visit to Morocco, the Turkish premier is scheduled to
visit Tunisia -- where not so long ago, the people rose up against
their autocratic ruler.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/revolt-in-turkey-erdogan-losing-grip-on-power-a-903553.html
By Ozlem Gezer, Maximilian Popp and Oliver Trenkamp
AP/dpa Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to the
media in Istanbul on June 3.
For a decade, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had a tight grip
on power. But it suddenly looks to be weakening. Thousands have taken
to the streets across the country and the threats to Erdogan's rule
are many. His reaction has revealed him to be hopelessly disconnected.
The rooftops of Istanbul can be seen in the background and next to
them is a gigantic image of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey's powerful
prime minister is watching over the city -- and is also monitoring
the work of the political party he controls. At least that seems to
be the message of the image, which can be found in a conference room
at the headquarters of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP).
These days, though, Istanbul is producing images that carry a
distinctly different meaning -- images of violent protests against
the vagaries of Erdogan's rule. And it is beginning to look as though
the prime minister, the most powerful leader Turkey has seen since
the days of modern Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, might be
losing control.
As recently as mid-May, Erdogan boasted during an appearance at the
Brookings Institute in Washington D.C. of the $29 billion airport
his government was planning to build in Istanbul. "Turkey no longer
talks about the world," he said. "The world talks about Turkey."
Just two weeks later, he appears to have been right -- just not quite
in the way he had anticipated. The world is looking at Turkey and
speaking of the violence with which Turkish police are assaulting
demonstrators at dozens of marches across the country. Increasingly,
Erdogan is looking like an autocratic ruler whose people are no longer
willing to tolerate him.
For years, Erdogan seemed untouchable and, at least until the recent
demonstrations began, was the most popular politician in the country.
He entered office amid pledges to reform the country and introduce even
more democratic freedoms. In his gruff dealings with foreign powers,
he gave Turkey a new kind of confidence. He broke the grip on power
held by the country's old elite, he kick-started the economy and he
calmed the conflict with the country's Kurdish minority.
Democracy Lost
But one thing got lost in the shuffle: Democracy. Success made Erdogan
even more power-hungry, thin-skinned and susceptible to criticism.
Indeed, he began governing in the same autocratic style for which he
had bitterly criticized his predecessors. And now, he is faced with
significant dangers to his power from several quarters.
The biggest danger facing the Turkish premier is his own
high-handedness. Though he said on Monday that he understood the
message being sent by the protesters, there is little evidence
that is true. Indeed, his response thus far has shown the degree to
which he has become distanced from realities in his country. With
hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets, Erdogan has
opted for confrontation rather than de-escalation. On Monday morning,
he threatened that he would be unable to keep the 50 percent of Turks
who voted for him from taking to the streets themselves. Critics see
the comment as nothing less than a threat of civil war.
He said that he won't allow "a handful of plunderers" to dictate
policy. He also branded the marches as being ideological and said that
they have been "manipulated by the opposition." Twitter, he said, is
the "greatest threat to the society." Such sentiments are reminiscent
of those Arab dictators who were overthrown in the Arab Spring of 2011.
Erdogan has recently shown a complete inability to gauge the
anger of the country's Kemalists. He recently offended the secular
followers of Ataturk with comments regarding a law aiming to reduce
the consumption of alcohol. During a party meeting, Erdogan painted
a rhetorical picture of an alcoholic populace: He spoke of police
who continually find empty bottles in people's cars, of husbands who
beat their wives and of fathers who are a poor influence due to their
consumption of beer.
Most pointedly, however, he asked if Turkey wanted to follow a law
passed by two drunks or the law of God. Since then, the country
has been filled with speculation as to who Erdogan may have been
referring to. Many believe it was an attack on Ataturk and his Prime
Minister Ismet Inonu, who were in office when the ban on alcohol in
the country was lifted in 1926. Furthermore, Ataturk is rumored to
have died from cirrhosis of the liver. As such, Erdogan's comments
are seen as an attack on a national hero.
Diverse Protests
But it isn't just the Kemalists who are now venting their rage at the
Turkish prime minister. Demonstrations have been reported in more than
40 cities, and they are drawing more than students and intellectuals.
Families with children, women in headscarves, men in suits, hipsters
in sneakers, pharmacists, tea-house proprietors -- all are taking to
the streets to register their displeasure.
Thus far, no opposition party has sought to claim the protests as
its own. There have been no party flags, no party slogans and no
prominent party functionaries to be seen. Kemalists and communists
have demonstrated side-by-side with liberals and secularists. Simply
calling them all "marauders and extremists," as Erdogan has sought
to do, will not be enough.
Another threat may also be lurking. In Istanbul, people have begun
whispering that the military is distributing gasmasks -- but to the
demonstrators rather than to the police. The message is clear: The
military supports the protests.
The story is certainly consistent with the Turkish military's
traditional role in society. The generals have long seen themselves as
protectors of Ataturk's legacy and as protectors of a secular Turkey.
Indeed, the military has staged three putsches in its history to
guarantee Kemalist values: in 1960, in 1971 and again in 1980.
Erdogan, to be sure, has done his best to reduce the military's power.
He has removed some officers and had others locked away, convicted
of conspiracy. It is difficult to predict how the military might
now react to the protests. But Erdogan certainly cannot rely on them
remaining in their barracks.
Visit to Tunisia
Even within his own party, the AKP, Erdogan's rule has become
contentious. Turkish President Abdullah Gul, likewise of the AKP,
has been careful to distance himself from Erdogan's comments over the
weekend that citizens should express their opinions at the ballot box.
Gul responded that "democracy doesn't just mean casting a ballot."
Turkish law prohibits Erdogan from running for another term. In
response, however, he appears to be leaning toward the model followed
by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdogan is currently seeking to
increase the powers of the Turkish presidency, preparatory to taking
over the position himself in 2014. Not everyone in the AKP is behind
the plan and speculation of an internal power struggle is rife.
On Monday morning, after a weekend full of some of the most intense
protests Turkey has seen, Erdogan spoke yet again, saying he suspects
that "foreign powers" are behind the demonstrations and that Turkish
intelligence is investigating. "It is not possible to reveal their
names, but we will have meetings with their heads," Erdogan said,
according to the English version of the Turkish daily Hurriyet. The
strategy is transparent: The prime minister is doing all he can to
portray the protests as an attack on Turkey.
Erdogan is hoping that will be enough to keep the situation under
control for now. This week he embarks on a trip through North Africa.
And, after a visit to Morocco, the Turkish premier is scheduled to
visit Tunisia -- where not so long ago, the people rose up against
their autocratic ruler.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/revolt-in-turkey-erdogan-losing-grip-on-power-a-903553.html