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SOUTH CAUCASUS COUNTRIES LOSING INTERNATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE - THE AMERICAN INTEREST
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/06/04/american-interest/
17:20 ~U 04.06.13
Weakened by ethnic conflict and poor governance, the South Caucasus
countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) are losing international
significance. Moreover, the West is preoccupied elsewhere with
economic challenges and crises in the Middle and Far East. To sustain
the Western support the three countries expect and need, they must
implement reforms and lessen regional tensions.
Two decades ago, war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian majority area in Azerbaijan,
displaced hundreds of thousands of people and led to the occupation of
seven districts of Azerbaijan surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Occasional
shootings test an uneasy ceasefire agreed in 1994. With international
mediation stalled, energy-rich Azerbaijan is stocking up on foreign
arms but may overestimate its military power. Armenia has a Russian
security accord and military base but is relatively isolated and may
also be overconfident. The Russian military occupation of Abkhazia,
South Ossetia and some contiguous areas in Georgia since the 2008
war has left a fragile peace. Regional security also suffers from
kleptocracy and unrest in Azerbaijan, and fractious governance in
Armenia and Georgia.
There are positives. The South Caucasus is a major export route to
world markets for oil and gas from the Caspian Sea basin. The region
facilitates surface transport linking Europe, the Mediterranean,
Central Asia and China. Azerbaijan is a big energy producer and
exporter, and Caspian energy is a key source for reducing Europe's
energy dependence on Russia.
Some trends, however, are reducing the importance of the South
Caucasus. Over time, Azerbaijan's global market share will ebb as
new and transformational technologies expand output elsewhere in
the world. Moreover, although logistical support for NATO forces in
Afghanistan along this ancient Silk Road is important, this concern
will diminish as troops are withdrawn.
In February, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan won reelection,
but protests erupted, politics are precarious, and corruption is
pervasive. Blockaded by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia has extensive
relations with Iran. Its educated people earn below their potential.
Average income, using World Bank data on purchasing power parity,
is only $6,100.
Azerbaijan's autocratic President Ilham Aliyev faces growing
discontent. On March 10, authorities used water cannons and police
charges to put down an unauthorized demonstration. Aliyev tries to
abate unrest by showering money on elites while suppressing dissent
and firing token officials. Oil and gas income buoys average income
to $8,960, but oil exports are declining as production peaks.
Stage-managed elections later this year are likely to rubber-stamp
another Aliyev victory.
Georgia's Rose revolution in 2003 ushered in younger, pro-Western
leaders who advanced many reforms, but President Mikheil Saakashvili
inclined toward authoritarianism as his power grew. In historic free
and fair parliamentary elections last October an opposition coalition
won. Political tensions remain high, however, as deep distrust and
competing governance styles play out between Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili and Saakashvili, who will remain in office until October.
Georgia's progress toward democracy is unique in the South Caucasus but
is now being questioned by an apparent exercise in selective justice
against the outgoing President and his team. Recent mob violence
against gay and lesbian demonstrators led by Georgian Orthodox priests
challenges the new government to demonstrate its commitment to human
rights and civil liberties.
While facing westward for security and economic integration,
Ivanishvili is easing tensions with Russia, which is reopening its
market to Georgian wine, mineral water and agriculture products. This
will be a slow process, however, as long as Russia recognizes Abkhazia
and South Ossetia as "independent." Georgia's inadequate economic
reforms have weakened the country. Per capita income remains depressed
at $5,350, and unemployment is a daunting 30 percent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to corral former Soviet
neighbors into a customs union, but Armenia and Georgia want deeper
ties with the far richer European Union. Azerbaijan also prefers links
with Europeans, major energy customers, even as they criticize Baku's
human rights abuses.
Most important is what South Caucasus countries do to help themselves.
Renewed fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh, even if accidental, could
bring human tragedy. Tensions may not ease until illiberal rulers
stop exploiting nationalism to hold on to power, although democratic
leaders might also play this card. International mediation will likely
continue but should not be a Western priority unless the sides are
ready to make concessions.
Democratic and economic reforms, especially in Armenia and Azerbaijan,
are crucial and long overdue. Throughout the region, poverty and
corruption are self-reinforcing, even in Azerbaijan, which is oil
rich but has a skewed income distribution.
US economic assistance to the South Caucasus is leveling off, and the
European Union is focused on internal financial issues. Unless the
South Caucasus countries do more to address their problems, Western
support and interest will ebb despite the risks. Russia's invasion of
Georgia in 2008 showed the need for active, consistent Western help to
resist coercion. As the energy importance of Azerbaijan diminishes,
democratic gains will be vital to sustain Western attention. The
Armenian diaspora in the West helps, but the country needs broader
international support to overcome isolation. This means improving
conditions at home.
Even though progress in the South Caucasus is slow, the West must
continue efforts to promote peace and stability in the region. The
European Union ought to conclude free trade accords with Armenia
and Georgia, and with Azerbaijan once it joins the World Trade
Organization. America should do likewise. Western encouragement of
civil society is vital.
To avoid being marginalized, the South Caucasus countries must
demonstrate positive change and avoid new conflicts, or they will
twist in uncertain winds.
Armenian News - Tert.am
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/06/04/american-interest/
17:20 ~U 04.06.13
Weakened by ethnic conflict and poor governance, the South Caucasus
countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) are losing international
significance. Moreover, the West is preoccupied elsewhere with
economic challenges and crises in the Middle and Far East. To sustain
the Western support the three countries expect and need, they must
implement reforms and lessen regional tensions.
Two decades ago, war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian majority area in Azerbaijan,
displaced hundreds of thousands of people and led to the occupation of
seven districts of Azerbaijan surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Occasional
shootings test an uneasy ceasefire agreed in 1994. With international
mediation stalled, energy-rich Azerbaijan is stocking up on foreign
arms but may overestimate its military power. Armenia has a Russian
security accord and military base but is relatively isolated and may
also be overconfident. The Russian military occupation of Abkhazia,
South Ossetia and some contiguous areas in Georgia since the 2008
war has left a fragile peace. Regional security also suffers from
kleptocracy and unrest in Azerbaijan, and fractious governance in
Armenia and Georgia.
There are positives. The South Caucasus is a major export route to
world markets for oil and gas from the Caspian Sea basin. The region
facilitates surface transport linking Europe, the Mediterranean,
Central Asia and China. Azerbaijan is a big energy producer and
exporter, and Caspian energy is a key source for reducing Europe's
energy dependence on Russia.
Some trends, however, are reducing the importance of the South
Caucasus. Over time, Azerbaijan's global market share will ebb as
new and transformational technologies expand output elsewhere in
the world. Moreover, although logistical support for NATO forces in
Afghanistan along this ancient Silk Road is important, this concern
will diminish as troops are withdrawn.
In February, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan won reelection,
but protests erupted, politics are precarious, and corruption is
pervasive. Blockaded by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia has extensive
relations with Iran. Its educated people earn below their potential.
Average income, using World Bank data on purchasing power parity,
is only $6,100.
Azerbaijan's autocratic President Ilham Aliyev faces growing
discontent. On March 10, authorities used water cannons and police
charges to put down an unauthorized demonstration. Aliyev tries to
abate unrest by showering money on elites while suppressing dissent
and firing token officials. Oil and gas income buoys average income
to $8,960, but oil exports are declining as production peaks.
Stage-managed elections later this year are likely to rubber-stamp
another Aliyev victory.
Georgia's Rose revolution in 2003 ushered in younger, pro-Western
leaders who advanced many reforms, but President Mikheil Saakashvili
inclined toward authoritarianism as his power grew. In historic free
and fair parliamentary elections last October an opposition coalition
won. Political tensions remain high, however, as deep distrust and
competing governance styles play out between Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili and Saakashvili, who will remain in office until October.
Georgia's progress toward democracy is unique in the South Caucasus but
is now being questioned by an apparent exercise in selective justice
against the outgoing President and his team. Recent mob violence
against gay and lesbian demonstrators led by Georgian Orthodox priests
challenges the new government to demonstrate its commitment to human
rights and civil liberties.
While facing westward for security and economic integration,
Ivanishvili is easing tensions with Russia, which is reopening its
market to Georgian wine, mineral water and agriculture products. This
will be a slow process, however, as long as Russia recognizes Abkhazia
and South Ossetia as "independent." Georgia's inadequate economic
reforms have weakened the country. Per capita income remains depressed
at $5,350, and unemployment is a daunting 30 percent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to corral former Soviet
neighbors into a customs union, but Armenia and Georgia want deeper
ties with the far richer European Union. Azerbaijan also prefers links
with Europeans, major energy customers, even as they criticize Baku's
human rights abuses.
Most important is what South Caucasus countries do to help themselves.
Renewed fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh, even if accidental, could
bring human tragedy. Tensions may not ease until illiberal rulers
stop exploiting nationalism to hold on to power, although democratic
leaders might also play this card. International mediation will likely
continue but should not be a Western priority unless the sides are
ready to make concessions.
Democratic and economic reforms, especially in Armenia and Azerbaijan,
are crucial and long overdue. Throughout the region, poverty and
corruption are self-reinforcing, even in Azerbaijan, which is oil
rich but has a skewed income distribution.
US economic assistance to the South Caucasus is leveling off, and the
European Union is focused on internal financial issues. Unless the
South Caucasus countries do more to address their problems, Western
support and interest will ebb despite the risks. Russia's invasion of
Georgia in 2008 showed the need for active, consistent Western help to
resist coercion. As the energy importance of Azerbaijan diminishes,
democratic gains will be vital to sustain Western attention. The
Armenian diaspora in the West helps, but the country needs broader
international support to overcome isolation. This means improving
conditions at home.
Even though progress in the South Caucasus is slow, the West must
continue efforts to promote peace and stability in the region. The
European Union ought to conclude free trade accords with Armenia
and Georgia, and with Azerbaijan once it joins the World Trade
Organization. America should do likewise. Western encouragement of
civil society is vital.
To avoid being marginalized, the South Caucasus countries must
demonstrate positive change and avoid new conflicts, or they will
twist in uncertain winds.
Armenian News - Tert.am