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IS ARMENIA GETTING READY FOR WAR?
The first of the two issues discussed at the June 5 meeting of the
National Security Council was related to energy security, the second
to territorial administration. This agenda is interesting indeed.
Territorial administration is, most probably, related to and determined
by the incident in Syunik region. Apparently, the result of the meeting
is the resignation of the governor of Syunik in the morning of June 6.
The issue of energy security is more interesting and wider in scope.
It immediately occurs to one how substantial and at the same time
demonstrative the meeting of the NSC was amid social anger and
tension. After all, in his opening speech Serzh Sargsyan did not utter
a single word relating to the agenda, even in general terms. Instead,
he predicted Azerbaijan's fiasco which has nothing to do with the
subject of the meeting. It is not known what was discussed at the
meeting.
In the meantime, energy security is a wide-amplitude issue. Energy
security requires diversification of heavy dependence on Russia. If
Armenia puts forth the issue of energy security, it implies relief
of dependence of the system on Russia.
There the measures are complex and may contain several packages
starting from energy saving to alternative energy. Khachatur
Sukiasyan has recently published an article on this subject. At the
same time, energy security means diversification of transportation
of carbohydrates, as well as sources of imports.
What has pushed the Armenian government to focus on this issue? It
is not known whether the government is practical. The answer to
this question is implied in Serzh Sargsyan's speech. He predicts
rearrangements in the region. Most probably, he means the growing
influence of the West the obvious signs of which are visible. The West
contains the ambitions of Turkey and Azerbaijan, depriving Russia of
its short-term but important allies.
Armenia needs to be flexible, and energy security is essential because
energy is the only lever Russia can use against Armenia. Consequently,
in order to be ready for rearrangements in the region Armenia must
diversify energy, create resources for security and self-sufficiency.
Serzh Sargsyan is certainly aware of the opposite risk.
Armenia is an important country to Russia. In the Russian political
tradition Armenia and other allies are not only outposts but also a
means of payment. Armenia has experienced the force of the Russian
political tradition for innumerable times.
No government of Armenia would entrust its destiny to Russia which
is experiencing a global economic and political regress. The energy
security of Armenia has become an issue of Serzh Sargsyan's security
therefore it has appeared on the state political agenda, at least
theoretically, to enlarge the space for Serzh Sargsyan's maneuvers.
The issue has an opposite side. The regional rearrangements which
Serzh Sargsyan predicts or forecasts might be brought into being by
the military way. And it means that Armenia will have to engage in
war, even though a short one. Energy security is acquiring a vital
importance, evidence to which is the five-day Russian-Georgian war in
2008. Five days of war between two other countries could cost expensive
and result in an energy crisis in Armenia. One can only imagine what
would happen if Armenia were engaged in a war for at least five days.
Of course, Armenia has been at war for five years but now the arsenals
of the sides and dynamics of time are different.
Hakob Badalyan 21:05 06/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30073
The first of the two issues discussed at the June 5 meeting of the
National Security Council was related to energy security, the second
to territorial administration. This agenda is interesting indeed.
Territorial administration is, most probably, related to and determined
by the incident in Syunik region. Apparently, the result of the meeting
is the resignation of the governor of Syunik in the morning of June 6.
The issue of energy security is more interesting and wider in scope.
It immediately occurs to one how substantial and at the same time
demonstrative the meeting of the NSC was amid social anger and
tension. After all, in his opening speech Serzh Sargsyan did not utter
a single word relating to the agenda, even in general terms. Instead,
he predicted Azerbaijan's fiasco which has nothing to do with the
subject of the meeting. It is not known what was discussed at the
meeting.
In the meantime, energy security is a wide-amplitude issue. Energy
security requires diversification of heavy dependence on Russia. If
Armenia puts forth the issue of energy security, it implies relief
of dependence of the system on Russia.
There the measures are complex and may contain several packages
starting from energy saving to alternative energy. Khachatur
Sukiasyan has recently published an article on this subject. At the
same time, energy security means diversification of transportation
of carbohydrates, as well as sources of imports.
What has pushed the Armenian government to focus on this issue? It
is not known whether the government is practical. The answer to
this question is implied in Serzh Sargsyan's speech. He predicts
rearrangements in the region. Most probably, he means the growing
influence of the West the obvious signs of which are visible. The West
contains the ambitions of Turkey and Azerbaijan, depriving Russia of
its short-term but important allies.
Armenia needs to be flexible, and energy security is essential because
energy is the only lever Russia can use against Armenia. Consequently,
in order to be ready for rearrangements in the region Armenia must
diversify energy, create resources for security and self-sufficiency.
Serzh Sargsyan is certainly aware of the opposite risk.
Armenia is an important country to Russia. In the Russian political
tradition Armenia and other allies are not only outposts but also a
means of payment. Armenia has experienced the force of the Russian
political tradition for innumerable times.
No government of Armenia would entrust its destiny to Russia which
is experiencing a global economic and political regress. The energy
security of Armenia has become an issue of Serzh Sargsyan's security
therefore it has appeared on the state political agenda, at least
theoretically, to enlarge the space for Serzh Sargsyan's maneuvers.
The issue has an opposite side. The regional rearrangements which
Serzh Sargsyan predicts or forecasts might be brought into being by
the military way. And it means that Armenia will have to engage in
war, even though a short one. Energy security is acquiring a vital
importance, evidence to which is the five-day Russian-Georgian war in
2008. Five days of war between two other countries could cost expensive
and result in an energy crisis in Armenia. One can only imagine what
would happen if Armenia were engaged in a war for at least five days.
Of course, Armenia has been at war for five years but now the arsenals
of the sides and dynamics of time are different.
Hakob Badalyan 21:05 06/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30073