Tweet
BIG RESHAPE COMING?: ARMENIA BRACES FOR CHANGES IN INCREASINGLY TUMULTUOUS REGION
ANALYSIS | 07.06.13 | 10:54
Photo: www.president.am
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The passing week saw a National Security Council meeting on energy
security and institutional strengthening of local government bodies
in Armenia that was convened by the country's President Serzh Sargsyan.
The public was not informed on what particular discussions went
on during the meeting and what specific decisions were made on the
mentioned issues, but the president's official website disseminated
Sargsyan's opening remarks in which he made a number of forecasts
pertaining to the region.
Sargsyan, in particular, stressed that in three or four years major
changes are expected in the region. He also predicted an imminent
fiasco for neighboring Azerbaijan in connection with the expected
reduction of its oil and gas revenues in the years to come and
continuing squander of public funds.
Many regard these statements in the context of the internal situation
in Armenia, which is not easy either, as well as in the context
of the negotiations on the Karabakh issue. Shortly before that,
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made the same predictions for
Armenia, claiming that the country was being devastated by poverty
and continuing emigration.
One way or another, Sargsyan's words sounded symptomatic against the
background of developments in the region. In particular, the matter
concerns continuing protests in neighboring Turkey where demonstrators
also make appeals to ethnic cousin Azerbaijan. 'Aliyev, You're Next'
banners have been spotted at some demonstrations in Istanbul recently.
In the wake of the 'Arab Spring' in which several dictators of Arab
countries were deposed and radical governments were brought in to
replace them, opinions were expressed that the United States has been
carrying out a full "reset" in the Greater Middle East region. This
was primarily connected with the strengthening of the fight against
terrorism: some observers claim that by bringing to power weak Islamist
governments, Washington seeks to weaken these countries, plunging them
into the abyss of internal war so that they forget about terrorism.
There also seems to be a plan for a territorial redrawing of the
region, in accordance with which the state of Kurdistan should be
created on some of the territories of today's Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Iraq and Syria are already weak enough to cede part of their territory,
but Turkey remains strong.
It is interesting that Armenia may also figure in this Greater Middle
East reshape plans, and it is not excluded that the matter could
concern the return of some of its western territories now controlled
by Turkey as well as a final solution to the Karabakh problem.
It is not without reason that during the recent visit to Washington of
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian his American counterpart
John Kerry said the United States will defend the security of the
'friendly Armenian people'. In a conversation with Azerbaijan's
Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov Kerry spoke more about
energy security and cooperation in this area.
Electoral processes are expected in Turkey and Azerbaijan in autumn,
before that a presidential ballot will be held in Iran. The outgoing
president in Iran will be replaced by a new one as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
is not eligible to run for a third consecutive term. This means that
changes may take place in global politics and US-Iranian relations may
improve. And sharp changes are not excluded in Turkey and Azerbaijan -
in either country there is not only growing discontent with the
policies of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President
Ilham Aliyev, respectively, but also serious national problems,
in particular, the Kurdish question in Turkey. Although Erdogan is
trying to improve relations with the Kurds and bring its fighters
out of the country, no one knows how this factor will be played out
during a possible revolution scenario.
In any case, Sargsyan said that Armenia must be ready for such changes,
still he did not elaborate on Armenia's priorities in this regard
apart from the drive to improve its economic standing. However, it
is obvious that one should be ready for the worst, including possible
military action.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
ANALYSIS | 07.06.13 | 10:54
Photo: www.president.am
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The passing week saw a National Security Council meeting on energy
security and institutional strengthening of local government bodies
in Armenia that was convened by the country's President Serzh Sargsyan.
The public was not informed on what particular discussions went
on during the meeting and what specific decisions were made on the
mentioned issues, but the president's official website disseminated
Sargsyan's opening remarks in which he made a number of forecasts
pertaining to the region.
Sargsyan, in particular, stressed that in three or four years major
changes are expected in the region. He also predicted an imminent
fiasco for neighboring Azerbaijan in connection with the expected
reduction of its oil and gas revenues in the years to come and
continuing squander of public funds.
Many regard these statements in the context of the internal situation
in Armenia, which is not easy either, as well as in the context
of the negotiations on the Karabakh issue. Shortly before that,
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made the same predictions for
Armenia, claiming that the country was being devastated by poverty
and continuing emigration.
One way or another, Sargsyan's words sounded symptomatic against the
background of developments in the region. In particular, the matter
concerns continuing protests in neighboring Turkey where demonstrators
also make appeals to ethnic cousin Azerbaijan. 'Aliyev, You're Next'
banners have been spotted at some demonstrations in Istanbul recently.
In the wake of the 'Arab Spring' in which several dictators of Arab
countries were deposed and radical governments were brought in to
replace them, opinions were expressed that the United States has been
carrying out a full "reset" in the Greater Middle East region. This
was primarily connected with the strengthening of the fight against
terrorism: some observers claim that by bringing to power weak Islamist
governments, Washington seeks to weaken these countries, plunging them
into the abyss of internal war so that they forget about terrorism.
There also seems to be a plan for a territorial redrawing of the
region, in accordance with which the state of Kurdistan should be
created on some of the territories of today's Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Iraq and Syria are already weak enough to cede part of their territory,
but Turkey remains strong.
It is interesting that Armenia may also figure in this Greater Middle
East reshape plans, and it is not excluded that the matter could
concern the return of some of its western territories now controlled
by Turkey as well as a final solution to the Karabakh problem.
It is not without reason that during the recent visit to Washington of
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian his American counterpart
John Kerry said the United States will defend the security of the
'friendly Armenian people'. In a conversation with Azerbaijan's
Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov Kerry spoke more about
energy security and cooperation in this area.
Electoral processes are expected in Turkey and Azerbaijan in autumn,
before that a presidential ballot will be held in Iran. The outgoing
president in Iran will be replaced by a new one as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
is not eligible to run for a third consecutive term. This means that
changes may take place in global politics and US-Iranian relations may
improve. And sharp changes are not excluded in Turkey and Azerbaijan -
in either country there is not only growing discontent with the
policies of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President
Ilham Aliyev, respectively, but also serious national problems,
in particular, the Kurdish question in Turkey. Although Erdogan is
trying to improve relations with the Kurds and bring its fighters
out of the country, no one knows how this factor will be played out
during a possible revolution scenario.
In any case, Sargsyan said that Armenia must be ready for such changes,
still he did not elaborate on Armenia's priorities in this regard
apart from the drive to improve its economic standing. However, it
is obvious that one should be ready for the worst, including possible
military action.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress