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Yeni Musavat, Azerbaijan
June 5 2013
Two sensational reports on NAP's early congress
Has the government's presidential candidate been agreed with the West?
When all of a sudden the New Azerbaijan Party announced that its
congress scheduled for August will be held on 7 June this became a
topic for serious discussions. The general explanation that the
opposition has is that the authorities saw that steps taken to create
the [opposition] National Council led to a successful conclusion and
were forced to announce their candidate earlier than planned.
Questions remain
Rumours about the National Council being created under the "patronage
of a strong country" could strengthen centrifugal tendencies within
the government and lead to the opposition gaining financial support
from those who fought secret talks in order to ensure their future
prospects [as given]. It is mainly for this reason that the
authorities hastily organized a conferences of local party branches
and decided on the congress. However, one crucial question remains
unanswered: will not this congress further increase pressure on the
authorities given that the West and international organizations do not
approve of the third term of presidency for the NAP chairman, Ilham
Aliyev? If the government have taken this into consideration, what
steps do they intend to take in order to withstand this pressure in
the run-up to the presidential election?
There are two sensational and mutually contradictory reports in this
regard that our editorial office has received from diplomatic sources.
It may be that these two reports are contradictory because the source
of one of these is closely related to European human rights
organizations.
Alleged consultations with the USA
At any rate, according to what a Western diplomat has said, the NAP
congress was brought two months forward after the consultations held
in the USA. The source even said that the US embassy in Baku mediated
the negotiations with the Obama administration and insisted on holding
the congress sooner. The diplomat pointed out that prior to the
creation of the National Council, the US ambassador, Richard
Morningstar, increased the number of meetings with opposition
politicians. The source said that the heightened activity of the
opposition, and most likely other secret reports that the public are
not aware of, were analysed in Washington. The US ambassador received
a message that it would be better for the NAP to announce its
candidate shortly. Interestingly, the NAP "hawks" who are usually
irritated by the US ambassador's meetings with the opposition this
time treated them with patience. "The last time the US ambassador met
the NAP executive secretary, Ali Ahmadov, was on 25 May. On 31 May,
the NAP unexpectedly decided on its congress," the diplomat said and
suggested that "the opposition draw its own conclusions". Remarkably,
such a meeting did take place at the NAP headquarters on 25 May and
relevant reports on this were circulated by news agencies. However, in
recent months nobody from the NAP leadership spoke about a congress to
be held in June and they gave general answers to questions concerning
the congress.
Alleged agreements on presidential election
At a time when Baku's relations with Russia are chilly but relations
with the US government have visibly improved a conference was held in
Baku on relations between the two countries. Washington recently
became active regarding Nagornyy Karabakh ([Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister] Elmar Mammadyarov met the US secretary of state and soon the
Armenian foreign minister will meet him as well). This creates
suspicions that certain agreements have been made concerning the
presidential election. In conclusion, we would like to say about this
report that from the time he was the envoy for energy issues [probably
referring to Morningstar's work in the capacity of the US Secretary of
State's Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy in 2009-2012] the US
ambassador has enjoyed good relations with the authorities and since
being appointed [as the US ambassador] to Baku he is only remembered
by making loyal statements.
"Surprising" move from president
The report we received from the second source is also very
interesting. The report quoted an official from a European
organization mission in Baku as saying that the decision to hold the
unexpected party congress came from the president: "It is said that
the decision came as a surprise even for the NAP leadership because
although the NAP conducted conferences, no special preparations have
been made for the congress. The latest congress held on 2 August 2008
had also been prepared during the first days of August. However, the
decision that came from the Presidential Administration sped up
everything. Even the decision on where to hold the congress was made
later". According to the official, the decision was surprising for
Western institutions as well: "No matter how predictable the third
term decision was, Western diplomats were astonished that Ilham Aliyev
announced his candidacy sooner than he did in 2008. They immediately
got in touch with their countries".
Therefore, the NAP will officially announce its presidential candidate
on 7 June. There will be grounds for more serious analysis of the two
sources' reports after Ilham Aliyev's presidential bid is officially
announced. Perhaps this is why the authorities made such haste: to
gain more time to think and make decisions.
[Translated from Azeri]
June 5 2013
Two sensational reports on NAP's early congress
Has the government's presidential candidate been agreed with the West?
When all of a sudden the New Azerbaijan Party announced that its
congress scheduled for August will be held on 7 June this became a
topic for serious discussions. The general explanation that the
opposition has is that the authorities saw that steps taken to create
the [opposition] National Council led to a successful conclusion and
were forced to announce their candidate earlier than planned.
Questions remain
Rumours about the National Council being created under the "patronage
of a strong country" could strengthen centrifugal tendencies within
the government and lead to the opposition gaining financial support
from those who fought secret talks in order to ensure their future
prospects [as given]. It is mainly for this reason that the
authorities hastily organized a conferences of local party branches
and decided on the congress. However, one crucial question remains
unanswered: will not this congress further increase pressure on the
authorities given that the West and international organizations do not
approve of the third term of presidency for the NAP chairman, Ilham
Aliyev? If the government have taken this into consideration, what
steps do they intend to take in order to withstand this pressure in
the run-up to the presidential election?
There are two sensational and mutually contradictory reports in this
regard that our editorial office has received from diplomatic sources.
It may be that these two reports are contradictory because the source
of one of these is closely related to European human rights
organizations.
Alleged consultations with the USA
At any rate, according to what a Western diplomat has said, the NAP
congress was brought two months forward after the consultations held
in the USA. The source even said that the US embassy in Baku mediated
the negotiations with the Obama administration and insisted on holding
the congress sooner. The diplomat pointed out that prior to the
creation of the National Council, the US ambassador, Richard
Morningstar, increased the number of meetings with opposition
politicians. The source said that the heightened activity of the
opposition, and most likely other secret reports that the public are
not aware of, were analysed in Washington. The US ambassador received
a message that it would be better for the NAP to announce its
candidate shortly. Interestingly, the NAP "hawks" who are usually
irritated by the US ambassador's meetings with the opposition this
time treated them with patience. "The last time the US ambassador met
the NAP executive secretary, Ali Ahmadov, was on 25 May. On 31 May,
the NAP unexpectedly decided on its congress," the diplomat said and
suggested that "the opposition draw its own conclusions". Remarkably,
such a meeting did take place at the NAP headquarters on 25 May and
relevant reports on this were circulated by news agencies. However, in
recent months nobody from the NAP leadership spoke about a congress to
be held in June and they gave general answers to questions concerning
the congress.
Alleged agreements on presidential election
At a time when Baku's relations with Russia are chilly but relations
with the US government have visibly improved a conference was held in
Baku on relations between the two countries. Washington recently
became active regarding Nagornyy Karabakh ([Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister] Elmar Mammadyarov met the US secretary of state and soon the
Armenian foreign minister will meet him as well). This creates
suspicions that certain agreements have been made concerning the
presidential election. In conclusion, we would like to say about this
report that from the time he was the envoy for energy issues [probably
referring to Morningstar's work in the capacity of the US Secretary of
State's Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy in 2009-2012] the US
ambassador has enjoyed good relations with the authorities and since
being appointed [as the US ambassador] to Baku he is only remembered
by making loyal statements.
"Surprising" move from president
The report we received from the second source is also very
interesting. The report quoted an official from a European
organization mission in Baku as saying that the decision to hold the
unexpected party congress came from the president: "It is said that
the decision came as a surprise even for the NAP leadership because
although the NAP conducted conferences, no special preparations have
been made for the congress. The latest congress held on 2 August 2008
had also been prepared during the first days of August. However, the
decision that came from the Presidential Administration sped up
everything. Even the decision on where to hold the congress was made
later". According to the official, the decision was surprising for
Western institutions as well: "No matter how predictable the third
term decision was, Western diplomats were astonished that Ilham Aliyev
announced his candidacy sooner than he did in 2008. They immediately
got in touch with their countries".
Therefore, the NAP will officially announce its presidential candidate
on 7 June. There will be grounds for more serious analysis of the two
sources' reports after Ilham Aliyev's presidential bid is officially
announced. Perhaps this is why the authorities made such haste: to
gain more time to think and make decisions.
[Translated from Azeri]