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Armenia: Could A Gas Price Hike Have Political Implications?

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  • Armenia: Could A Gas Price Hike Have Political Implications?

    ARMENIA: COULD A GAS PRICE HIKE HAVE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS?

    EurasiaNet.org, NY
    June 10 2013

    June 10, 2013 - 2:29pm, by Marianna Grigoryan

    Armenia is bracing for a roughly 18-percent hike in the price of
    natural gas imported from Russia. The unanswered question is what's
    the domestic political cost for the Armenian government?

    Beginning in July, ArmRusGazProm, a joint venture between the Armenian
    Ministry of Energy and the Russian companies Gazprom and Itera, will
    charge customers 156,000 drams (about $374) per 1,000 cubic meters
    (tcm) of gas, compared with the current price of 132,000 drams/tcm
    (roughly $316), the Public Services Regulatory Commission announced
    in early June. Electricity prices will increase by eight drams
    (approximately two cents) per kilowatt-hour.

    The gas and utility price hikes followed an earlier Gazprom
    announcement that gas prices for European customers would fall by up to
    10 percent to an average of $370-$380/tcm. The Commission's decision
    means that Armenians could soon be paying more for gas than residents
    of Western Europe, marking a sudden reversal from previous years,
    when formerly Soviet republics could expect to get a big discount
    from the Kremlin. The Commission has not elaborated on its reasons
    for agreeing to the price hike.

    Calling for Gazprom to leave Armenia, protesters on June 7 were not
    allowed to attend a Commission session at which the new prices were
    discussed, Armenian news outlets reported. The gathering followed a
    mini-protest on June 5 outside of the Russian Embassy in Yerevan. The
    demonstrators submitted a letter of complaint to Russian Ambassador
    Ivan Volynkin about the new prices. So far, the complaint has not
    elicited a response.

    With Armenia dependent on Gazprom for gas supplies, the government
    had little leverage in negotiations. Even so, officials in Yerevan
    point out that the new price is substantially lower than the initial
    ArmRusGazProm proposal of 221,000 drams/tcm ($5.36).

    Few citizens are giving the government any credit. Instead they are
    assailing officials for failing to diversify gas supplies. "This
    was the wrong management decision," fumed filmmaker and opposition
    activist Tigran Khzmalian. "The consequence is this increase in the
    gas price and, particularly, the bad situation Armenia will face."

    Economist Vahagn Khachatrian, a member of the opposition Armenian
    National Congress, predicted that prices for goods and services will be
    "20- to 50-percent higher" by July or August. "We'll find ourselves
    in a totally different environment," Khachatrian said.

    With one-third of Armenia's official population of roughly 2.97 million
    people living beneath the poverty line, according to official data -
    unofficial estimates range far higher, - the gas price hike, along
    with the expected chain effect in raising costs for food and essential
    durable goods, stands to heighten dissatisfaction with the government.

    Aware of that risk, particularly following the short-lived Barevolution
    (Hello Revolution) protest movement, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran
    Sarkisian on May 16 pledged that the government will subsidize the
    new gas price by 30 percent, as well as provide additional financial
    support for underprivileged families. The amount of the additional
    support hasn't been specified.

    Many Armenians, though, are skeptical that such measures will take
    the economic pressure off them. While inflation for the first quarter
    of 2013 stood at 3 percent, few see these official figures as accurate.

    Retail prices for food and services increase steadily; in May, for
    instance, bread prices were 10.8 percent higher than during the same
    period in 2012.

    "What do they want from us? How long will the government continue to
    suck our blood?" asked 68-year-old Yerevan pensioner Marjik Avagian.

    "That is the reason why everyone dreams of leaving the country."

    Since the 1991 Soviet collapse, the country has lost hundreds of
    thousands of residents, driven abroad by the 1988-1994 war with
    Azerbaijan and the lack of jobs. Official unemployment stands at 7
    percent, though unofficial estimates soar well into the double digits.

    In a 2010-2012 poll by Gallup, 40 percent of Armenian respondents
    expressed a desire to move abroad.

    "Armenian villages are getting empty," independent political analyst
    Yervand Bozoian commented. "We are losing our human resources."

    Not all believe that higher gas prices will prove the final straw
    for Armenians' patience. Economist Tatul Manaserian, director of
    Yerevan's Alternative Armenian Analytical Center, agrees that the gas
    price hike will have a chain effect on other prices, but believes that
    "no shocking changes" will occur.

    The government, Manaserian underlined, managed to negotiate with
    Russia and significantly reduce the 67-percent increase initially
    desired. He does not doubt that it similarly will stick to its promise
    about support for the underprivileged. "By taking on such a burden,
    the government tries to implement the whole process smoothly," he said.

    As of yet, the political opposition has not focused on alternative
    options for softening the impact of the hike on ordinary Armenians.

    Some focus on government promises before the February presidential
    election that gas prices would not change. Others are asking; what is
    the point of Armenia's strategic alliance with Russia, if it results
    in such increases in natural-gas prices?

    Editor's note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in
    Yerevan and editor of MediaLab.am.

    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67096


    From: Baghdasarian
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