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CHANGE OF EMPHASIS?: NORMALIZATION WITHOUT POLITICAL RESOLUTION LIKELY TO BE SOUGHT FOR KARABAKH
KARABAKH | 10.06.13 | 11:25
Map: www.armenianow.com
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
New, but still very weak hints that indicate increased pressure from
the international community have appeared in the Karabakh settlement
process as there is an increased probability of "normalization of
relations" without actually resolving the conflict.
Chairman of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Rovnag Abdullayev
made a surprise announcement last week, saying that if Armenia asks,
Azerbaijan can supply it with natural gas. After this sensational
statement, representative of President Ilham Aliyev's administration
said that as soon as Armenia asks for such a favor, Baku will
immediately advance its conditions. However, he did not deny the
possibility of economic cooperation.
So far, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the economic
and humanitarian levels have been nonexistent. While the father
and predecessor of the current president, Heydar Aliyev, would less
interfere with communication between the two countries, while still
avoiding economic cooperation, his son Ilham reduced it to zero,
choosing to build his policies on Armenophobia.
As a result of these policies, Armenia found itself in greater
isolation from regional projects. But most importantly, Western
countries had to build more expensive regional communications such
as railways and pipelines bypassing Armenia.
The powers mediating in the Karabakh settlement, the United States,
Russia and France, have sought to persuade Azerbaijan and Turkey to
unlock the region, but every time these two countries would advance
their condition - "the return of lands in Karabakh". The Armenian
side, despite conducting negotiations, never wanted to give up even
some of the territory liberated during the 1991-1994 war.
The recent meetings of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan
with their counterparts in Moscow and Washington are likely to
have shifted the emphasis in the settlement, and ways of opening up
regional communications without a political solution to the conflict
are likely to be sought. Purely economic goals appear to be pushed
to the forefront.
Former U.S. Cochairman of the OSCE Minsk Group and ex-Ambassador
to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza does not hide that he supports the
idea of linking a Karabakh settlement (the return of lands) to the
Turkish-Armenian relations (lifting of the blockade). Bryza explicitly
lobbied the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey, trying to get at
least part of the lands back to Azerbaijan.
But this policy was not liked by the influential Armenian community
in the United States and, apparently, also to the administration of
the country, and Bryza lost his position as ambassador to Azerbaijan
where two years ago Richard Morningstar was appointed as head of
the US diplomatic mission. Morningstar immediately stated that
energy issues were a priority, without a linkage to Karabakh. And,
apparently, a communication project was offered to Azerbaijan that
suits its economic interests.
It is not clear yet what price Armenia will have to pay for that and
whether Azerbaijan will be able to get at least small territorial
concessions from Armenia. Once Turkey's minister of foreign affairs
talked about Armenia's ceding at least one district in Karabakh...
But even small concessions will lead to big changes in the
military-strategic balance, and most likely, Armenia will insist on
the opening of communications without a change the status quo. The
question is whether Russia will help Armenia in this matter.
http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/46754/armenia_karabakh_azerbaijan_settlem
ent_negotiations
KARABAKH | 10.06.13 | 11:25
Map: www.armenianow.com
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
New, but still very weak hints that indicate increased pressure from
the international community have appeared in the Karabakh settlement
process as there is an increased probability of "normalization of
relations" without actually resolving the conflict.
Chairman of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Rovnag Abdullayev
made a surprise announcement last week, saying that if Armenia asks,
Azerbaijan can supply it with natural gas. After this sensational
statement, representative of President Ilham Aliyev's administration
said that as soon as Armenia asks for such a favor, Baku will
immediately advance its conditions. However, he did not deny the
possibility of economic cooperation.
So far, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the economic
and humanitarian levels have been nonexistent. While the father
and predecessor of the current president, Heydar Aliyev, would less
interfere with communication between the two countries, while still
avoiding economic cooperation, his son Ilham reduced it to zero,
choosing to build his policies on Armenophobia.
As a result of these policies, Armenia found itself in greater
isolation from regional projects. But most importantly, Western
countries had to build more expensive regional communications such
as railways and pipelines bypassing Armenia.
The powers mediating in the Karabakh settlement, the United States,
Russia and France, have sought to persuade Azerbaijan and Turkey to
unlock the region, but every time these two countries would advance
their condition - "the return of lands in Karabakh". The Armenian
side, despite conducting negotiations, never wanted to give up even
some of the territory liberated during the 1991-1994 war.
The recent meetings of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan
with their counterparts in Moscow and Washington are likely to
have shifted the emphasis in the settlement, and ways of opening up
regional communications without a political solution to the conflict
are likely to be sought. Purely economic goals appear to be pushed
to the forefront.
Former U.S. Cochairman of the OSCE Minsk Group and ex-Ambassador
to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza does not hide that he supports the
idea of linking a Karabakh settlement (the return of lands) to the
Turkish-Armenian relations (lifting of the blockade). Bryza explicitly
lobbied the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey, trying to get at
least part of the lands back to Azerbaijan.
But this policy was not liked by the influential Armenian community
in the United States and, apparently, also to the administration of
the country, and Bryza lost his position as ambassador to Azerbaijan
where two years ago Richard Morningstar was appointed as head of
the US diplomatic mission. Morningstar immediately stated that
energy issues were a priority, without a linkage to Karabakh. And,
apparently, a communication project was offered to Azerbaijan that
suits its economic interests.
It is not clear yet what price Armenia will have to pay for that and
whether Azerbaijan will be able to get at least small territorial
concessions from Armenia. Once Turkey's minister of foreign affairs
talked about Armenia's ceding at least one district in Karabakh...
But even small concessions will lead to big changes in the
military-strategic balance, and most likely, Armenia will insist on
the opening of communications without a change the status quo. The
question is whether Russia will help Armenia in this matter.
http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/46754/armenia_karabakh_azerbaijan_settlem
ent_negotiations