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WHO WILL PAY AZERBAIJAN FOR LIFTING BLOCKADE ON ARMENIA?
The Armenian and Azerbaijani ministers of foreign affairs have
obviously been offered by the United States a revolutionary scenario of
regional settlement. It implies ending the blockade of communications,
apparently, with some reimbursement to Azerbaijan.
However, it is not known yet who will pay the reimbursement. Some
forces would like Armenia to pay, of course. In addition, right in
this period Azerbaijan announced that it will sue Armenia at the
international court for a compensation of 300 billion USD for the
damage caused as a result of the "occupation".
It is not ruled out that the region of Fizuli was assessed that much.
Azerbaijan would love to have this scenario. Will Armenia agree to
such a high price? And why should Armenia pay all?
In the end, the point is not a breakthrough in the blockade of Armenia
to which we we have somehow got used but mostly about the opening of
regional communications which is necessary to those who sell and buy
goods. It is surely not Armenia so Armenia should not pay.
The international community has lost enough in the result of the
blockade of regional communications by Azerbaijan and Turkey. They
had to lay out long pipes, waste money on bypassing communications.
Apparently, the international community is dissatisfied with this
situation so it makes Turkey and Azerbaijan unblock the region.
Moreover, the situation in both republics is critical so it is easier
to exert pressure on them.
The ever-present Matthew Bryza recalled that the Armenian and
Turkish normalization cannot be ensured without the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict. Perhaps, he was not confirmed as U.S. ambassador
to Azerbaijan for this idea but was replaced by Richard Morningstar
who has a more "apolitical" approach and lobbies for opening of
energy communications.
Azerbaijan's gas and oil revenues are on the decline. However, the
layout of "Western" alternatives to to the Russian pipes is still
urgent, and the solution is close. However, no one is going to lay out
expensive pipes since no one supported the "project of the century"
- the Kars-Akhalkalak-Baku railway. It is not accidental that the
Turkish part of Kars-Gyumri railroad is under reconstruction.
Perhaps, Serzh Sargsyan meant this transformation when he was speaking
about serious transformations expected in the region. The opening of
regional communications will really change the region especially if
it is carried out with the help of pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey.
In this situation Armenia has major advantages but the international
community needs the unblocking so it should come to terms with
Azerbaijan. It can force or just pay Baku but not at the expense of
Armenian interests.
In this context, the statement of the General Director of Azerbaijan's
National Oil Company Rovnag Abdullayev that his country may supply
gas to Armenia if the latter requests seems like a proposal to the
international community rather than to Armenia. Representative of
Azerbaijan's president administration Ali Hasanov who stated that
"if Armenia requests, they will put forth their preconditions"
actually confirmed that the opening of regional communications is
already realistic.
Naira Hayrumyan 11:37 10/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30096
The Armenian and Azerbaijani ministers of foreign affairs have
obviously been offered by the United States a revolutionary scenario of
regional settlement. It implies ending the blockade of communications,
apparently, with some reimbursement to Azerbaijan.
However, it is not known yet who will pay the reimbursement. Some
forces would like Armenia to pay, of course. In addition, right in
this period Azerbaijan announced that it will sue Armenia at the
international court for a compensation of 300 billion USD for the
damage caused as a result of the "occupation".
It is not ruled out that the region of Fizuli was assessed that much.
Azerbaijan would love to have this scenario. Will Armenia agree to
such a high price? And why should Armenia pay all?
In the end, the point is not a breakthrough in the blockade of Armenia
to which we we have somehow got used but mostly about the opening of
regional communications which is necessary to those who sell and buy
goods. It is surely not Armenia so Armenia should not pay.
The international community has lost enough in the result of the
blockade of regional communications by Azerbaijan and Turkey. They
had to lay out long pipes, waste money on bypassing communications.
Apparently, the international community is dissatisfied with this
situation so it makes Turkey and Azerbaijan unblock the region.
Moreover, the situation in both republics is critical so it is easier
to exert pressure on them.
The ever-present Matthew Bryza recalled that the Armenian and
Turkish normalization cannot be ensured without the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict. Perhaps, he was not confirmed as U.S. ambassador
to Azerbaijan for this idea but was replaced by Richard Morningstar
who has a more "apolitical" approach and lobbies for opening of
energy communications.
Azerbaijan's gas and oil revenues are on the decline. However, the
layout of "Western" alternatives to to the Russian pipes is still
urgent, and the solution is close. However, no one is going to lay out
expensive pipes since no one supported the "project of the century"
- the Kars-Akhalkalak-Baku railway. It is not accidental that the
Turkish part of Kars-Gyumri railroad is under reconstruction.
Perhaps, Serzh Sargsyan meant this transformation when he was speaking
about serious transformations expected in the region. The opening of
regional communications will really change the region especially if
it is carried out with the help of pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey.
In this situation Armenia has major advantages but the international
community needs the unblocking so it should come to terms with
Azerbaijan. It can force or just pay Baku but not at the expense of
Armenian interests.
In this context, the statement of the General Director of Azerbaijan's
National Oil Company Rovnag Abdullayev that his country may supply
gas to Armenia if the latter requests seems like a proposal to the
international community rather than to Armenia. Representative of
Azerbaijan's president administration Ali Hasanov who stated that
"if Armenia requests, they will put forth their preconditions"
actually confirmed that the opening of regional communications is
already realistic.
Naira Hayrumyan 11:37 10/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30096