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ARMENIA LOOKS WEST, TRIES TO LOOSEN MOSCOW'S GRIP
International Relations & Security Network ISN, Zurich
June 12 2013
Rally in Yerevan, Republic of Armenia
Will Armenia sign up to the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement
with the European Union this coming November? Robert Coalson believes
it will and that it marks yet another attempt by Yerevan to rebalance
its ties with Russia.
By Robert Coalson for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)
It seemed like a small event, but it got a lot of tongues wagging.
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian decided not to attend an "informal
summit" of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) on May 28. Sarkisian's office cited Armenia's Republic Day
holiday that day and a visit to Yerevan by Britain's Prince Charles.
Nonetheless, Sarkisian's decision was taken by many as a sign of
discontent in Moscow's relations with Armenia, which has long been
Russia's most reliable partner in the South Caucasus.
Richard Giragosian, director of an independent think tank in Yerevan
called the Regional Studies Center, says Armenia has been quietly
forging a new "strategic vision" aimed at reducing the country's
subservience to Moscow.
"For many years, Armenia was in grave danger of becoming little more
than a Russian garrison state, marked by significant overdependence
on Russia and, at times, political submission to Russia's interests,"
Giragosian says. "This has changed in the past two to three years,
however."
During that time, Yerevan has boosted cooperation with NATO and has
actively engaged the European Union as a participant in the bloc's
Eastern Partnership.
Although Armenia's involvement in the Eastern Partnership has been
somewhat quieter than that of Ukraine or Moldova, Yerevan is on track
for the big prize -- the signing of a Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Agreement at the partnership's November summit in Vilnius.
Big Shift?
Armenian officials, however, have been quick to emphasize that
bilateral relations with Russia are "excellent." On May 30, National
Security Council Secretary Artur Baghdasarian made the point strongly
at a press briefing seemingly aimed at squelching speculation of
a rift.
"I believe Armenian-Russian relations are excellent and positive,"
Baghdasarian said. "The Armenian-Russian political dialogue is
at the highest level -- between the presidents and governments,
foreign ministers, and security councils. Armenian-Russian strategic
cooperation is successfully developing in every sphere."
Baghdasaryan noted that Armenia sent a high-level delegation to
Bishkek, including Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian.
Giragosian agrees that the shift in Russian-Armenian relations is
more evolutionary than revolutionary.
But it is an important shift, particularly in the context of Russia's
bid to increase its influence in the South Caucasus as a whole.
Moscow's relations with Azerbaijan have long been frosty and relations
with Georgia, while improving since Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili
came to power in October, remain poor because of many issues lingering
from the August 2008 war.
Moscow Pressure
Russia's position vis-a-vis Armenia is strong. It offers Armenia
military and political support in its contentious relations with
neighboring Azerbaijan. It also controls key parts of the Armenian
economy, especially the energy sector. Moreover, Armenia's economy
depends on remittances from the Armenian diaspora, and about
three-quarters of those remittances come from Russia.
Armenia, on the other hand, is the only CSTO member in the South
Caucasus and the only country where Russia has a permanent military
base. Yerevan seems to have concluded that it has more leverage with
the Kremlin than it previously realized.
The strength of Armenia's position is being sorely tested as Moscow
is pressuring Yerevan -- and other former Soviet states, especially
Ukraine and Moldova -- to join its Eurasian Customs Union (ECU). So
far, only Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan are members of the bloc,
which Moscow hopes to expand and transform into an even more ambitious
Eurasian Union.
'Incompatibility'
The European Union has made it clear that membership in the Eurasian
Customs Union is incompatible with a Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Agreement and with an EU Association Agreement.
In a speech on May 28 in Brussels, EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan
Fuele noted that he had traveled to Moscow in March and "we explained
the reason for that incompatibility is that we cannot make legally
binding agreements with partners that are not in charge of their
external trade policies."
Ukraine was able to hold out against Moscow's demands that it join
the ECU and instead has agreed to "observer status" in the project.
Yerevan, despite tremendous pressure from Moscow -- including hikes in
the rates Armenia pays for Russian natural gas -- has so far avoided
joining the ECU as it pushes its bid for EU accords.
In 2010, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev flew to Yerevan to
sign an agreement extending Russia's use of the Gumri military base
until 2045. At that time, analysts were convinced Yerevan had all but
ceded its sovereignty. Political analyst Aharon Adibekian sarcastically
wrote: "When cornered by an enemy, do not resist. Don't tense up. Just
enjoy for maximum pleasure."
But such concerns may have been overblown. Yerevan by then was already
evolving its multivector foreign-policy approach, including not only
deeper relations with the EU but also a commitment to improving ties
with regional neighbor Turkey.
Analyst Giragosian thinks it is likely Yerevan will be able to continue
resisting Russian pressure on the ECU and will see its efforts crowned
at the Vilnius summit.
"When Armenia does challenge Russia's preference, the end result is
usually more respect, given the Russian reliance on Armenia. In other
words, Armenia's strategic significance to Russia is much larger than
Russia cares to admit," Giragosian says.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=164860
International Relations & Security Network ISN, Zurich
June 12 2013
Rally in Yerevan, Republic of Armenia
Will Armenia sign up to the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement
with the European Union this coming November? Robert Coalson believes
it will and that it marks yet another attempt by Yerevan to rebalance
its ties with Russia.
By Robert Coalson for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)
It seemed like a small event, but it got a lot of tongues wagging.
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian decided not to attend an "informal
summit" of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) on May 28. Sarkisian's office cited Armenia's Republic Day
holiday that day and a visit to Yerevan by Britain's Prince Charles.
Nonetheless, Sarkisian's decision was taken by many as a sign of
discontent in Moscow's relations with Armenia, which has long been
Russia's most reliable partner in the South Caucasus.
Richard Giragosian, director of an independent think tank in Yerevan
called the Regional Studies Center, says Armenia has been quietly
forging a new "strategic vision" aimed at reducing the country's
subservience to Moscow.
"For many years, Armenia was in grave danger of becoming little more
than a Russian garrison state, marked by significant overdependence
on Russia and, at times, political submission to Russia's interests,"
Giragosian says. "This has changed in the past two to three years,
however."
During that time, Yerevan has boosted cooperation with NATO and has
actively engaged the European Union as a participant in the bloc's
Eastern Partnership.
Although Armenia's involvement in the Eastern Partnership has been
somewhat quieter than that of Ukraine or Moldova, Yerevan is on track
for the big prize -- the signing of a Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Agreement at the partnership's November summit in Vilnius.
Big Shift?
Armenian officials, however, have been quick to emphasize that
bilateral relations with Russia are "excellent." On May 30, National
Security Council Secretary Artur Baghdasarian made the point strongly
at a press briefing seemingly aimed at squelching speculation of
a rift.
"I believe Armenian-Russian relations are excellent and positive,"
Baghdasarian said. "The Armenian-Russian political dialogue is
at the highest level -- between the presidents and governments,
foreign ministers, and security councils. Armenian-Russian strategic
cooperation is successfully developing in every sphere."
Baghdasaryan noted that Armenia sent a high-level delegation to
Bishkek, including Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian.
Giragosian agrees that the shift in Russian-Armenian relations is
more evolutionary than revolutionary.
But it is an important shift, particularly in the context of Russia's
bid to increase its influence in the South Caucasus as a whole.
Moscow's relations with Azerbaijan have long been frosty and relations
with Georgia, while improving since Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili
came to power in October, remain poor because of many issues lingering
from the August 2008 war.
Moscow Pressure
Russia's position vis-a-vis Armenia is strong. It offers Armenia
military and political support in its contentious relations with
neighboring Azerbaijan. It also controls key parts of the Armenian
economy, especially the energy sector. Moreover, Armenia's economy
depends on remittances from the Armenian diaspora, and about
three-quarters of those remittances come from Russia.
Armenia, on the other hand, is the only CSTO member in the South
Caucasus and the only country where Russia has a permanent military
base. Yerevan seems to have concluded that it has more leverage with
the Kremlin than it previously realized.
The strength of Armenia's position is being sorely tested as Moscow
is pressuring Yerevan -- and other former Soviet states, especially
Ukraine and Moldova -- to join its Eurasian Customs Union (ECU). So
far, only Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan are members of the bloc,
which Moscow hopes to expand and transform into an even more ambitious
Eurasian Union.
'Incompatibility'
The European Union has made it clear that membership in the Eurasian
Customs Union is incompatible with a Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Agreement and with an EU Association Agreement.
In a speech on May 28 in Brussels, EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan
Fuele noted that he had traveled to Moscow in March and "we explained
the reason for that incompatibility is that we cannot make legally
binding agreements with partners that are not in charge of their
external trade policies."
Ukraine was able to hold out against Moscow's demands that it join
the ECU and instead has agreed to "observer status" in the project.
Yerevan, despite tremendous pressure from Moscow -- including hikes in
the rates Armenia pays for Russian natural gas -- has so far avoided
joining the ECU as it pushes its bid for EU accords.
In 2010, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev flew to Yerevan to
sign an agreement extending Russia's use of the Gumri military base
until 2045. At that time, analysts were convinced Yerevan had all but
ceded its sovereignty. Political analyst Aharon Adibekian sarcastically
wrote: "When cornered by an enemy, do not resist. Don't tense up. Just
enjoy for maximum pleasure."
But such concerns may have been overblown. Yerevan by then was already
evolving its multivector foreign-policy approach, including not only
deeper relations with the EU but also a commitment to improving ties
with regional neighbor Turkey.
Analyst Giragosian thinks it is likely Yerevan will be able to continue
resisting Russian pressure on the ECU and will see its efforts crowned
at the Vilnius summit.
"When Armenia does challenge Russia's preference, the end result is
usually more respect, given the Russian reliance on Armenia. In other
words, Armenia's strategic significance to Russia is much larger than
Russia cares to admit," Giragosian says.
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=164860