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CHANGES AROUND: GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS GATHERING PACE IN ARMENIA'S NEIGHBORHOOD
http://www.armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/46951/armenia_region_developments_syria_iran_turkey_azer baijan_georgia
ANALYSIS | 17.06.13 | 11:12
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Active geopolitical developments start taking place increasingly closer
to Armenia and the recent forecasts by President Serzh Sargsyan that
changes will start in the region in the time to come appear to be
already coming true.
The situation has, in particular, changed in neighboring Iran where
moderate reformer Hassan Rouhani was elected president late last
week to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad under whom relations between the
Islamic Republic and the West grew even tenser. Leading international
analysts expect some softening in the relations between Iran and the
West in the near future. It has been said for quite a while that the
United States and Iran would like to improve their relations. If
it happens and if the West removes at least part of the sanctions
currently imposed on Iran, Armenia may have even greater prospects
in its relations with the Islamic Republic that remains one of only
two gateways to the outside world that the landlocked South Caucasus
nation blockaded by Azerbaijan and Turkey now has.
Some Russian media have already begun to speculate about Iran's
intentions to start supplying Georgia with natural gas via Armenia.
Among other things this would also mean that Armenia will be able to
get cheaper gas and reduce its dependence on Russia, while Georgia
will apparently become less depend on Azerbaijan for fuel. This would
also completely change the geopolitical balance in the region.
The situation is also changing in another country bordering on
Armenia - protests in Turkey have continued into a third week. While
until recently the matter concerned only an environmental movement
protesting against plans for development in Istanbul's Gezi Park,
later it also focused on the intention to overthrow the not-so-much
democratic government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then now
the main focus is on the movement against Islamism and for preservation
of identity.
The large scope of groups taking part in the protests lead many experts
to believe that people belonging to different ethnic and religious
groups do not like the excessive 'Turkish' and 'pro-Islamic' policies
of the current government in Ankara. They do not seem to like also
the excessively confident foreign policy of Turkey aimed at reviving
the Ottoman Empire.
It is not without reason that Erdogan has been talking about an
external trace behind the events in Turkey - it is clear that many
countries also do not like the imperial policies of modern Turkey. And
it is possible that after Syria the hottest spot in the world will
be shifted to Turkey - near the border with Armenia.
Meanwhile, the situation is becoming tenser around Syria as the
United States last week announced it would start arming the rebels
after what it said was a confirmed use of chemical weapons by the
forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.
Quite tough elections are apparently ahead in Azerbaijan where
President Ilham Aliyev is seeking a third consecutive term. This time
around the local opposition is likely to field a single candidate
who enjoys great prestige among the people - playwright Rustam
Ibragimbekov, whose candidacy is also supported by Azerbaijan-born
Russian billionaires.
It is now difficult to predict what exact changes the possible
developments in neighboring countries will bring for Armenia. But
expectations in Armenia are more positive than negative. Changes
in the region are also expected in connection with year 2015, when
Armenians around the world will be commemorating the centennial of
the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey. Now even the new head of the
Roman Catholic Church, Pope Francis, has promised to come to Armenia
on April 24, 2015.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://www.armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/46951/armenia_region_developments_syria_iran_turkey_azer baijan_georgia
ANALYSIS | 17.06.13 | 11:12
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Active geopolitical developments start taking place increasingly closer
to Armenia and the recent forecasts by President Serzh Sargsyan that
changes will start in the region in the time to come appear to be
already coming true.
The situation has, in particular, changed in neighboring Iran where
moderate reformer Hassan Rouhani was elected president late last
week to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad under whom relations between the
Islamic Republic and the West grew even tenser. Leading international
analysts expect some softening in the relations between Iran and the
West in the near future. It has been said for quite a while that the
United States and Iran would like to improve their relations. If
it happens and if the West removes at least part of the sanctions
currently imposed on Iran, Armenia may have even greater prospects
in its relations with the Islamic Republic that remains one of only
two gateways to the outside world that the landlocked South Caucasus
nation blockaded by Azerbaijan and Turkey now has.
Some Russian media have already begun to speculate about Iran's
intentions to start supplying Georgia with natural gas via Armenia.
Among other things this would also mean that Armenia will be able to
get cheaper gas and reduce its dependence on Russia, while Georgia
will apparently become less depend on Azerbaijan for fuel. This would
also completely change the geopolitical balance in the region.
The situation is also changing in another country bordering on
Armenia - protests in Turkey have continued into a third week. While
until recently the matter concerned only an environmental movement
protesting against plans for development in Istanbul's Gezi Park,
later it also focused on the intention to overthrow the not-so-much
democratic government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then now
the main focus is on the movement against Islamism and for preservation
of identity.
The large scope of groups taking part in the protests lead many experts
to believe that people belonging to different ethnic and religious
groups do not like the excessive 'Turkish' and 'pro-Islamic' policies
of the current government in Ankara. They do not seem to like also
the excessively confident foreign policy of Turkey aimed at reviving
the Ottoman Empire.
It is not without reason that Erdogan has been talking about an
external trace behind the events in Turkey - it is clear that many
countries also do not like the imperial policies of modern Turkey. And
it is possible that after Syria the hottest spot in the world will
be shifted to Turkey - near the border with Armenia.
Meanwhile, the situation is becoming tenser around Syria as the
United States last week announced it would start arming the rebels
after what it said was a confirmed use of chemical weapons by the
forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.
Quite tough elections are apparently ahead in Azerbaijan where
President Ilham Aliyev is seeking a third consecutive term. This time
around the local opposition is likely to field a single candidate
who enjoys great prestige among the people - playwright Rustam
Ibragimbekov, whose candidacy is also supported by Azerbaijan-born
Russian billionaires.
It is now difficult to predict what exact changes the possible
developments in neighboring countries will bring for Armenia. But
expectations in Armenia are more positive than negative. Changes
in the region are also expected in connection with year 2015, when
Armenians around the world will be commemorating the centennial of
the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey. Now even the new head of the
Roman Catholic Church, Pope Francis, has promised to come to Armenia
on April 24, 2015.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress