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WAR IS POSTPONED A LITTLE
Interview with Hayk Martirosyan, Ph.D. Candidate at Sorbonne
University, political sciences
Mr. Martirosyan, the three presidents, Barack Obama, Hollande and
Putin prolonged the Karabakh status quo. Edward Nalbandyan commented
on their statement saying that it could be a stimulus for progress in
the negotiations if Azerbaijan's leadership perceives the emphases
of the co-chair countries. Does this mean Karabakh process will
lack developments?
I don't agree with the opinion that the status quo has been prolonged.
It is just that the war has been postponed a little. It is almost
impossible to find a peace solution to the Karabakh issue. This is
not said in Armenia, but in Azerbaijan they say it. They reject the
negotiations, we - the war, but the negotiations won't give anything
positive to us. It is said but the war is the only real version we
can't avoid.
As to the statement of the co-chairing presidents, I would say that
official statement differ from the reality. When ordering peace, the
parties are not armed. While, Azerbaijan is provided serious military
equipment by Israel and Russia. Against this background, any statement
recalls a temporary mechanism of repression. On the other hand, if
we present it as serious political pressure on Azerbaijan, we could
say the same also for Armenia with the view of forcing Armenia make
concessions in order to avoid the war.
Can this statement have any implication on the home situation in
Armenia? Can there be unexpected situations in regional countries -
in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and in Iran?
Unfortunately, the Armenian society does not care for foreign policy.
This is strange. In Syria, on these days, the civilization of the
whole region, rather the West, is being decided. Armenia will feel
the first influence and blow. But the society seems to be following
Syria from a distant planet. It has the same attitude towards Karabakh
issue. It is inert.
As to the neighboring countries, then political changes in those
countries will surely influence on Armenia. The war against Iran
may be destructive for Armenia. That war will involve many regional
states, including Armenia, which will become a weakening rival for
Azerbaijan. Russia will do something not to lose Armenia but it will
be done late, after many sacrifices. This is a terrible scenario
and it can't be ignored. As to the unexpected influence of regional
countries on super powers, then usually, it is the super powers that
create unexpected situations for regional countries.
What will happen against the background of Azerbaijan's aggression
and Russia's supply of weapons to this country?
A War. A military conflict. The Russian weapon has not changed
Azerbaijan's intentions. They are unchangeable for Aliyev. The Russian
weapon will make the situation harder for Armenia, which will fall into
bigger dependence on its ally. In general, it is impossible to imagine
in politics that the strategic partner sells weapon to the rival of
its partner. It is almost the same as the U.S. didn't arm Israel but
Hamas. Russia's position on this matter needs to be explained.
Siranuysh Papyan 16:10 19/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/30221
From: A. Papazian
Interview with Hayk Martirosyan, Ph.D. Candidate at Sorbonne
University, political sciences
Mr. Martirosyan, the three presidents, Barack Obama, Hollande and
Putin prolonged the Karabakh status quo. Edward Nalbandyan commented
on their statement saying that it could be a stimulus for progress in
the negotiations if Azerbaijan's leadership perceives the emphases
of the co-chair countries. Does this mean Karabakh process will
lack developments?
I don't agree with the opinion that the status quo has been prolonged.
It is just that the war has been postponed a little. It is almost
impossible to find a peace solution to the Karabakh issue. This is
not said in Armenia, but in Azerbaijan they say it. They reject the
negotiations, we - the war, but the negotiations won't give anything
positive to us. It is said but the war is the only real version we
can't avoid.
As to the statement of the co-chairing presidents, I would say that
official statement differ from the reality. When ordering peace, the
parties are not armed. While, Azerbaijan is provided serious military
equipment by Israel and Russia. Against this background, any statement
recalls a temporary mechanism of repression. On the other hand, if
we present it as serious political pressure on Azerbaijan, we could
say the same also for Armenia with the view of forcing Armenia make
concessions in order to avoid the war.
Can this statement have any implication on the home situation in
Armenia? Can there be unexpected situations in regional countries -
in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and in Iran?
Unfortunately, the Armenian society does not care for foreign policy.
This is strange. In Syria, on these days, the civilization of the
whole region, rather the West, is being decided. Armenia will feel
the first influence and blow. But the society seems to be following
Syria from a distant planet. It has the same attitude towards Karabakh
issue. It is inert.
As to the neighboring countries, then political changes in those
countries will surely influence on Armenia. The war against Iran
may be destructive for Armenia. That war will involve many regional
states, including Armenia, which will become a weakening rival for
Azerbaijan. Russia will do something not to lose Armenia but it will
be done late, after many sacrifices. This is a terrible scenario
and it can't be ignored. As to the unexpected influence of regional
countries on super powers, then usually, it is the super powers that
create unexpected situations for regional countries.
What will happen against the background of Azerbaijan's aggression
and Russia's supply of weapons to this country?
A War. A military conflict. The Russian weapon has not changed
Azerbaijan's intentions. They are unchangeable for Aliyev. The Russian
weapon will make the situation harder for Armenia, which will fall into
bigger dependence on its ally. In general, it is impossible to imagine
in politics that the strategic partner sells weapon to the rival of
its partner. It is almost the same as the U.S. didn't arm Israel but
Hamas. Russia's position on this matter needs to be explained.
Siranuysh Papyan 16:10 19/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/30221
From: A. Papazian