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RUSSIAN GAME IN CAUCASUS
The old Russian game in the Caucasus is definitely over because it
has transformed from an imperial patron to one of the influential
states of the region.
There are too many mistakes, failures and crimes but Moscow does not
regret because a critical opinion on one's own policy is characteristic
of responsible groups and establishment. There is none in Moscow.
What happened in Georgia, namely ousting of M. Saakashvili's team,
is the maximum the Georgians could do for Russia. The EU and NATO
appreciate the ability of Georgia and Armenia to conduct a policy of
rapprochement with the West without triggering a confrontation with
Russia. Equal, relaxed relations between these two Caucasian states
and Russia are an important factor for successful rapprochement with
the Euro-Atlantic community.
NATO and the EU have worked out a scheme of relations of Georgia and
Armenia with the West and Russia. "You may conduct a double-sided
policy but distance from the West must be shorter" (a little cynical
but technological). Georgia pursues its course towards NATO and the
EU, supplying wine to Russia, Armenia is trying to get convinced that
a double-sided policy is principally impossible.
On these days the Russian political commentators are making efforts
to demonstrate supply of arms to Azerbaijan (for up to 3 billion
dollars) as part of a well-planned policy. It is not ruled out that
the Russian commentators are not well-informed or are informed more
than enough but whatever Russia does, the purpose is money. The rest,
such as efforts to absorb Azerbaijan again is a possible goal but
let there be what will be.
However, the money for the weapons is primary while policy will be
put off till tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It is possible to
put forth logical arguments - strong pressure on Armenia to force
it to reject rapprochement with the West and become an actor in a
show called the Eurasian Union, demonstrate to the West and perhaps
to Turkey that Russia has influence on the richest country of the
Caucasus, show that Russia is able to conduct a policy of parity
between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is all possible but first they
need to grab their money when sale of weapon is cut all over the world.
In fact, the general political background of the Caucasus has changed
for Russia, and now Russia needs to shift responsibility for the
region and treat the countries of the region following the Western
model and style. Apparently, Russia is treating CSTO analogically,
with skepticism towards this military bloc. Most probably, Russia does
not have any expectations from the idea of the Eurasian Union. (It only
needs to offer condolences to the moral and intellectual degenerates
of Armenia who expected to find a feeder in this project.)
Russia is a leader of initiation of an arms race in the Caucasus which
is in line with its interests. Russia has said goodbye to hopes for
getting allies and partners in the Caucasus. It has what it has. What
are the perspectives of the Russian policy in the Caucasus?
Perspectives are bright, one needs to stretch out the "rubber" as
much as needed and grab as much money as possible. Quite a Western
policy of Moscow.
Igor Muradyan 11:57 19/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30214
From: A. Papazian
The old Russian game in the Caucasus is definitely over because it
has transformed from an imperial patron to one of the influential
states of the region.
There are too many mistakes, failures and crimes but Moscow does not
regret because a critical opinion on one's own policy is characteristic
of responsible groups and establishment. There is none in Moscow.
What happened in Georgia, namely ousting of M. Saakashvili's team,
is the maximum the Georgians could do for Russia. The EU and NATO
appreciate the ability of Georgia and Armenia to conduct a policy of
rapprochement with the West without triggering a confrontation with
Russia. Equal, relaxed relations between these two Caucasian states
and Russia are an important factor for successful rapprochement with
the Euro-Atlantic community.
NATO and the EU have worked out a scheme of relations of Georgia and
Armenia with the West and Russia. "You may conduct a double-sided
policy but distance from the West must be shorter" (a little cynical
but technological). Georgia pursues its course towards NATO and the
EU, supplying wine to Russia, Armenia is trying to get convinced that
a double-sided policy is principally impossible.
On these days the Russian political commentators are making efforts
to demonstrate supply of arms to Azerbaijan (for up to 3 billion
dollars) as part of a well-planned policy. It is not ruled out that
the Russian commentators are not well-informed or are informed more
than enough but whatever Russia does, the purpose is money. The rest,
such as efforts to absorb Azerbaijan again is a possible goal but
let there be what will be.
However, the money for the weapons is primary while policy will be
put off till tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It is possible to
put forth logical arguments - strong pressure on Armenia to force
it to reject rapprochement with the West and become an actor in a
show called the Eurasian Union, demonstrate to the West and perhaps
to Turkey that Russia has influence on the richest country of the
Caucasus, show that Russia is able to conduct a policy of parity
between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is all possible but first they
need to grab their money when sale of weapon is cut all over the world.
In fact, the general political background of the Caucasus has changed
for Russia, and now Russia needs to shift responsibility for the
region and treat the countries of the region following the Western
model and style. Apparently, Russia is treating CSTO analogically,
with skepticism towards this military bloc. Most probably, Russia does
not have any expectations from the idea of the Eurasian Union. (It only
needs to offer condolences to the moral and intellectual degenerates
of Armenia who expected to find a feeder in this project.)
Russia is a leader of initiation of an arms race in the Caucasus which
is in line with its interests. Russia has said goodbye to hopes for
getting allies and partners in the Caucasus. It has what it has. What
are the perspectives of the Russian policy in the Caucasus?
Perspectives are bright, one needs to stretch out the "rubber" as
much as needed and grab as much money as possible. Quite a Western
policy of Moscow.
Igor Muradyan 11:57 19/06/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30214
From: A. Papazian